Near-record to record level moisture over parts of the region allowed for scattered to numerous storms to develop over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains on May 18, 2023. Combined with slow storm motions, locally heavy rainfall occurred over portions of the Hermit's Peak Calf Canyon burn scar.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Near-record to record level moisture over parts of the region allowed for scattered to numerous storms to develop over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains on May 18, 2023. Combined with slow storm motions, locally heavy rainfall occurred over portions of the Hermit's Peak Calf Canyon burn scar. This led to flash flooding near Guadalupita, NM at the extreme northeastern edge of the burn scar. Drainages below Silva Canyon on the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon burn scar flowed out of banks and flooded nearby driveways and properties near SR-434 south of Guadalupita, NM. There were no reports of damage or loss of life.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 10:46 AM MST, 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1146 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 321 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023 Scattered to numerous showers and storms continue each afternoon through the weekend. There is a slight risk of flash flooding in the northeast this afternoon with burn scar flash flooding also possible each afternoon through Sunday. There is a marginal risk for severe storms today in the far northeast and tomorrow in the southeast. A backdoor cold front may create breezy east canyon winds through the gaps of the central mountains early tomorrow and again early Saturday. Temperatures drop tomorrow, particularly in the east where highs may be as much as 15 degrees below average. Drier air enters from the west early next week, resulting in a decrease in storm coverage across the west while afternoon showers and storms continue in the north and east. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 321 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023 Locally heavy rainfall is expected over northeast areas this afternoon as a backdoor cold front pushes through the area (including the Sangre de Cristo Mountains). Then, the focus for unseasonably heavy convective precipitation will shift to western areas on Friday as the cold front reaches the continental divide. A monsoon-like atmosphere will remain in place today and Friday, while the forecast area remains in a saddle between a somewhat weak upper level low pressure system over the upper Baja Peninsula and a much stronger and broader low pressure system crossing the upper Great Plains. PWATs around 0.75- 1.00" over the southeast two thirds of the forecast area today and Friday will be near record values, and around 175-250% of normal for this time of year. While scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast areawide today, the heaviest precipitation looks to favor the Sangres eastward where rain amounts from 0.25-1.00" are expected. The potential exists for flash flooding in and below recent burn scars, so we are issuing a Flash Flood Watch mainly for the burn scars of the Sangre de Cristos for this afternoon. Storms today are forecast to travel eastward around 10-25 mph, with the threat of heavy rain shifting east of the Sangres by sunset. The backdoor cold front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain late tonight into Friday morning with a moderately gusty east wind below canyons in the central valley. The atmosphere is forecast to be more stable behind the cold front across north central and northeast areas on Friday, so while easterly upslope flow will likely cause showers and thunderstorms to continue, rain rates should be slow enough to decrease the burn scar flood threat there. However, the atmosphere looks to remain quite unstable over west central and southern areas on Friday, and PWATs will remain near record values, so the threat of locally heavy rainfall will increase there. High temperatures are forecast to trend cooler areawide today, then bottom out around 3 to 16 degrees below normal on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 321 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023 While convection will likely die down Friday night, easterly upslope flow will allow for precipitation to continue throughout the night, particularly along the Sangre de Cristo mountains and west central mountains where moderate rainfall rates are possible. An easterly breeze in the gaps of the central mountains may develop again late Friday night but winds should stay below advisory criteria. Convection on Saturday will be focused along the central mountain chain where there may still be some modest frontal forcing. The heaviest rainfall is likely in the Sacramento mountains where flash flooding may be a concern. Temperatures on Saturday will remain below average areawide with the greatest departure in the southeast where highs could be as much as 15 degrees below average. The closed low over Baja California will begin to lift into the Four Corners region on Sunday, providing modest lift for convection that will be focused in the western and northern mountains. It will also act to scour some of the moisture out of western NM resulting in a decrease in storm coverage each day after Sunday. Convection along the dryline in eastern NM is expected each afternoon Monday through Wednesday of next week. There are some indications that a weak northwesterly wave could clip the northeast portion of the state early next week and create more organized strong to severe storms so that will be a feature to watch in the coming days. Temperatures will gradually warm early next week with above average temperatures possible by Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023 The coverage of SHRA/TS is beginning to increase around the high terrain and will spread eastward around 10 to 15 kt into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset. Direct hits will be capable of producing brief MVFR vsbys in lcl heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, small hail, and frequent lightning strikes. A few storms over northeast NM may become severe with large hail and damaging winds possible from KCAO to KTCC btwn 22Z and 02Z. A backdoor cold front will begin advancing south thru northeast NM overnight with MVFR low cigs developing in its wake. Lcl IFR is possible around KCAO along w/ patchy fog near the CO border. This front will help keep SHRA going all night within the central high terrain and the RGV by sunrise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 321 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023 Monsoon-like weather is forecast to continue through at least the weekend with daily rounds of wetter variety showers and thunderstorms. The recent uptick in thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity now looks to continue today through the weekend as a Baja low gradually meanders northeastward over the Four Corners. A moist backdoor cold front is also forecast to dive southwestward through the forecast area late today through Friday, with the potential for a moderately strong gap wind in the central valley late tonight into Friday morning, and again Friday night. Behind the low, drier air is forecast to work its way over western and central NM early next week with less thunderstorm activity there, but the dryline may remain active on the eastern plains of NM with thunderstorms producing wetting precipitation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 80 50 78 54 / 10 10 30 50 Dulce........................... 73 42 68 44 / 40 10 80 70 Cuba............................ 73 47 66 46 / 40 30 80 70 Gallup.......................... 73 43 72 46 / 50 30 60 60 El Morro........................ 68 45 65 46 / 60 50 80 70 Grants.......................... 72 45 69 44 / 60 30 80 60 Quemado......................... 70 46 68 45 / 70 50 80 50 Magdalena....................... 70 50 66 51 / 80 50 80 80 Datil........................... 68 45 66 48 / 80 50 80 60 Reserve......................... 72 41 72 43 / 80 40 70 30 Glenwood........................ 76 48 77 53 / 70 50 60 20 Chama........................... 66 40 62 40 / 60 20 80 80 Los Alamos...................... 69 50 62 49 / 70 50 90 80 Pecos........................... 69 47 61 46 / 70 60 90 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 65 42 59 46 / 70 60 90 70 Red River....................... 55 38 49 40 / 90 70 100 80 Angel Fire...................... 62 37 55 38 / 80 60 100 90 Taos............................ 71 43 63 43 / 70 50 90 70 Mora............................ 65 45 57 43 / 80 60 100 90 Espanola........................ 77 51 69 51 / 60 40 80 70 Santa Fe........................ 71 50 63 50 / 70 60 90 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 74 48 66 49 / 60 50 90 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 77 57 69 54 / 40 50 80 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 56 71 54 / 50 40 80 70 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 55 74 54 / 50 40 80 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 56 72 55 / 40 40 80 70 Belen........................... 81 55 75 53 / 50 40 70 70 Bernalillo...................... 80 56 71 55 / 40 50 80 70 Bosque Farms.................... 82 53 75 52 / 40 40 80 70 Corrales........................ 80 55 72 55 / 40 40 80 70 Los Lunas....................... 82 53 74 53 / 40 40 80 70 Placitas........................ 77 55 67 54 / 40 50 80 80 Rio Rancho...................... 79 56 70 55 / 40 40 80 70 Socorro......................... 80 55 76 55 / 70 50 70 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 49 62 49 / 40 60 90 80 Tijeras......................... 74 51 65 50 / 40 50 90 80 Edgewood........................ 72 50 63 47 / 60 50 90 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 74 46 65 45 / 60 60 80 70 Clines Corners.................. 70 47 60 45 / 50 70 80 80 Mountainair..................... 73 49 66 48 / 50 50 80 80 Gran Quivira.................... 73 50 67 48 / 40 50 80 70 Carrizozo....................... 76 53 73 54 / 40 30 60 60 Ruidoso......................... 69 47 66 48 / 40 30 60 60 Capulin......................... 66 47 57 43 / 100 60 80 40 Raton........................... 71 47 63 45 / 90 60 80 50 Springer........................ 73 50 64 47 / 80 50 80 60 Las Vegas....................... 69 47 60 45 / 80 60 90 80 Clayton......................... 74 53 64 46 / 80 80 60 20 Roy............................. 73 51 63 48 / 90 50 80 60 Conchas......................... 81 55 70 53 / 70 60 70 60 Santa Rosa...................... 79 54 67 51 / 70 60 70 70 Tucumcari....................... 82 55 70 51 / 60 60 50 40 Clovis.......................... 82 55 71 51 / 40 40 50 40 Portales........................ 84 56 74 52 / 30 50 50 40 Fort Sumner..................... 83 56 72 53 / 40 50 50 60 Roswell......................... 88 59 82 59 / 30 40 40 50 Picacho......................... 78 53 72 52 / 60 40 70 60 Elk............................. 75 50 72 50 / 40 30 50 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215. && SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...42
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 181 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:11 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Twitter report of flash flooding near Guadalupita within the Hermit's Peak Calf Canyon burn scar. Drainage below Silva Canyon on the burn scar flowed out of the banks and flooded nearby driveways and properties near SR-434 south of Guadalupita. Damages are unknown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1088607.