A weak surface trough extended up along the Rio Grande Valley with very dry air in place at the low levels. Virga showers were able to develop and produced a dry microburst north of Radium Springs.
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The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
A weak surface trough extended up along the Rio Grande Valley with very dry air in place at the low levels. Virga showers were able to develop and produced a dry microburst north of Radium Springs.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 4:25 PM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 525 PM MDT Mon May 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 1 2023 Moisture will slosh into the region tonight through Wednesday night, increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms mainly along and east of the Rio Grande. Drier and gusty showers and isolated storms are possible over southwest New Mexico. Temperatures will remain warm. Southwest winds strengthen and humidities crater Thursday and Friday, leading to potential for more widespread critical fire weather conditions. The upcoming weekend appears dry, breezy to windy and warm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 1 2023 Models suggest today's considerable high clouds will hang around tonight and then at least partially clear out Tuesday. The RAP and HRRR continue to hint at some isolated convection moving northward out of Old Mexico into south central NM later tonight with spotty light rain and most likely gusty winds given the sub 20 degree dewpoints over the region this afternoon. The better low level moisture will slosh westward Tuesday into Wednesday potentially reaching the Rio Grande Valley although it may be rather shallow, with the deeper low level moisture along the mountains to the east. The GFS indicates a moisture surge may move into southwest/south central NM as the upper low along the CA coast starts to eject into AZ and NV on Wednesday night but again would suspect low level moisture may be somewhat lacking. Pretty much stuck with the NBM pops for this forecast package which seemed to have the general trends although may be a little high. A serious drying trend commences over southwest NM by Thursday, and low level moisture east of the Rio Grande Valley is swept out Thursday night and Friday. Consequently, breezy to windy and dry conditions develop with higher potential for critical fire weather conditions. This dry southwest flow pattern persists through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, and overnight lows should cool down given the dry air mass. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon May 1 2023 Plenty of cloud coverage tonight with Gulf moisture moving northward into S NM/W TX. Weak convective activity ongoing south of the border in Chihuahua will drift north overnight, leading to isolated rain showers. Much of this will result in virga showers due to very air surface air, leading to low precipitation, gusty downdrafts, and surface winds up to 25 knots. Will need to monitor TAFs for any gust fronts next few hours. CIGs likely remaining around 10-12K FT overnight, clearing by early Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 1 2023 An upper low is forecast to drop southward along the CA coast bringing occasional bouts of stronger south to southwest winds and brief moisture surges into southwest NM through Wednesday evening. This will lead to potential for some dry and gusty showers or isolated storms and elevated fire weather conditions. One such surge in indicated by short term models for tonight although it may be more focused up the Mesilla Valley/Rio Grande Valley. Another may occur Wednesday night but models seem to have more disagreement. East of the Rio Grande low level moisture will slosh in and out, with better chances for wetting showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday night, although can't rule out a few drier storms late Tuesday. Convection chances over the forecast area diminish rapidly Thursday from west to east as drier and stronger southwest winds dominate. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday and Friday as a result. Dry, breezy to windy and warm weather is indicated for the upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 62 86 59 87 / 20 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 56 81 53 81 / 20 20 20 20 Las Cruces 57 86 54 86 / 20 10 0 10 Alamogordo 56 84 53 84 / 10 20 10 20 Cloudcroft 42 60 41 60 / 10 30 20 40 Truth or Consequences 54 83 51 83 / 10 10 0 10 Silver City 48 75 48 74 / 10 10 0 0 Deming 51 83 49 83 / 20 10 0 10 Lordsburg 50 80 49 81 / 10 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 83 58 84 / 20 10 10 10 Dell City 55 86 51 85 / 10 20 20 20 Fort Hancock 55 87 53 88 / 20 10 10 10 Loma Linda 55 79 52 78 / 20 10 10 10 Fabens 57 87 54 87 / 20 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 55 82 54 83 / 20 10 0 10 White Sands HQ 62 84 58 83 / 20 10 10 10 Jornada Range 54 82 51 82 / 20 10 10 10 Hatch 56 84 52 83 / 20 10 0 10 Columbus 55 84 54 83 / 20 10 0 0 Orogrande 57 83 54 83 / 20 10 10 20 Mayhill 47 72 43 71 / 10 30 20 40 Mescalero 46 71 43 72 / 10 40 20 40 Timberon 44 70 43 70 / 10 30 20 30 Winston 47 74 44 73 / 10 10 0 0 Hillsboro 52 80 49 79 / 10 10 0 0 Spaceport 54 81 50 81 / 10 10 0 10 Lake Roberts 44 75 43 75 / 10 10 0 0 Hurley 46 79 45 79 / 10 10 0 0 Cliff 41 82 39 82 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 46 76 46 75 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 49 78 48 78 / 20 10 0 0 Animas 51 81 49 81 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 51 82 50 81 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 81 48 80 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 75 48 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...30-Dennhardt
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 705 AM MDT Mon May 1 2023 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-021315- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 705 AM MDT Mon May 1 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Mesonet location at the CDRRC Camp located 6 miles north-northeast of Radium Springs recorded a peak gust of 61 mph in a dry microburst.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1092929.