Abundant monsoon moisture allowed for afternoon thunderstorms to develop over the central mountain chain, including the Sacramento Mountains near Ruidoso. Little to no steering flow allowed for storms to reside over the same location for a long period of time producing locally heavy rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Abundant monsoon moisture allowed for afternoon thunderstorms to develop over the central mountain chain, including the Sacramento Mountains near Ruidoso. Little to no steering flow allowed for storms to reside over the same location for a long period of time producing locally heavy rainfall. One such incident resulted in flash flooding along the upper Rio Ruidoso just west of Ruidoso near the Lincoln and Otero County line. Floodwaters carried mud, rocks, and debris across Mescalero Lane. Photos shared show what appears to be only minor damage to an access gate.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 15, 10:34 AM MST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1134 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The Flood Watch was expanded to the McBride wildfire burn scar in the Sacramento mountains/Ruidoso area, as high PWATs and sluggish storm motions are still advertised to hold over the area today. POPs are still holding in the likely category with newest runs of CAMs and HREF indicating storms directly over the scar this afternoon. Elsewhere, the newer high resolution model runs indicate perhaps a bit more subdued storm coverage, but with more insolation and expectations of increasing instability, did not have confidence to lower POPs. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Although high pressure aloft will be building over New Mexico, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will return each afternoon and evening through Thursday, favoring the western and northern high terrain. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible due to slow storm motions. By Friday, drier air will work into the region, relegating shower and storm chances to mainly the western high terrain during the upcoming weekend. High temperatures will recover to near or slightly above normal values today, where they will linger for the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The upper level high will be centered over north central NM/southern CO today. This will result in slow and erratic storm motions for most areas, though western areas may see storms shift toward the north around 5 to 10 mph. Storms are expected to hug the high terrain more so today. In other words, they shouldn't stray too far from the mountains, especially across the Central Mountain Chain. Given the slow storm motions, and continue PWATs around 1-1.2", opted to go for another Flood Watch for the Cerro Pelado and Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scars. CAMs suggest storms will develop over the Jemez Mountains first (shortly after noon), with HPCC storms developing later in the afternoon. Despite the high amounts of moisture, the today's batch of thunderstorms will probably be a little underwhelming since outside of the terrain, there is little forcing to promote thunderstorm development. Nonetheless, it only takes one storm to cause problems. Most showers and thunderstorms will diminish by the midnight hour. Another batch is in store for Wednesday, and overall, it will be quite similar to today's crop. The upper high may meander a smidge south, but slow and erratic storm motions will remain the rule with high PWATs. Another Flood Watch will likely be in store for Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The upper high center will be sliding back to the east of NM by Thursday. Models have had a little consistency with depicting a disturbance rotating over western NM in the circulation around the upper high center resulting in an uptick in showers and storms over western NM Thursday and Thursday night. The upper high is forecast to strengthen and broaden over the central U.S Friday and Saturday, with drier air rotating into NM. The plume of moisture is consequently shunted into Arizona and even SoCal, where it remains through early next week. Surface dewpoints start to dry out as well Friday and Saturday. The GFS currently is not drawing the main tropical system northward into SoCal and AZ is it was previously forecasting, coming more in line with the ECMWF, which was consistently directing the system to the west and away from the CONUS. Instead though for NM, there may be some moisture that rotates into the state early next week which produces some spotty light precipitation. That is, if the upper high center remains to our east and northeast, but it could end up sliding back over NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Thunderstorms will be quickly taking shape over the northern, western and central mountains of New Mexico this afternoon. Thunderstorms will be slow-moving today and will pose the usual aviation hazards of lightning, small hail, gusty downburst winds, and brief reductions to ceiling and visibility during downpours. While some expansion of storms into the interface of the highlands and the east central high plains is expected, other lower elevation areas will likely have difficulty observing storms propagating that way, but a few cells will make it. Storms should quickly die off by mid evening in almost all areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The upper level high will meander over or near NM through Thursday, which will result in slow and erratic storm motions. PWATs near or above 1" will allow storms to produce heavy rainfall, but outside of the terrain, there will be little forcing to promote thunderstorm development. Thus, the scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage will favor the mountains. The upper high will shift eastward on Friday, but dry air rounding the southern periphery of the high will move into NM, limiting precipitation chances further. Unfortunately, this trend will continue through the weekend. What storms do develop will favor far western NM. Otherwise, near to just above normal temperatures will be the rule for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 88 63 91 63 / 30 20 30 20 Dulce........................... 82 55 85 50 / 50 30 60 30 Cuba............................ 81 57 84 55 / 50 30 60 30 Gallup.......................... 82 57 87 57 / 50 40 40 30 El Morro........................ 79 54 82 54 / 60 40 50 40 Grants.......................... 83 55 85 55 / 50 30 50 30 Quemado......................... 81 55 83 58 / 60 40 50 40 Magdalena....................... 82 62 84 63 / 30 20 50 30 Datil........................... 79 56 81 58 / 50 20 50 30 Reserve......................... 83 55 87 60 / 60 20 40 30 Glenwood........................ 88 63 92 68 / 40 20 30 20 Chama........................... 76 50 79 47 / 70 20 70 40 Los Alamos...................... 79 63 83 58 / 70 30 70 30 Pecos........................... 82 59 85 58 / 50 40 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 49 83 46 / 70 30 60 30 Red River....................... 73 46 77 43 / 80 40 80 40 Angel Fire...................... 75 42 79 41 / 70 30 60 40 Taos............................ 83 51 85 51 / 50 20 50 30 Mora............................ 79 55 83 53 / 70 30 60 30 Espanola........................ 87 61 90 59 / 50 20 40 30 Santa Fe........................ 82 62 85 59 / 50 30 50 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 85 60 88 58 / 40 30 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 66 90 66 / 20 20 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 67 92 67 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 64 93 67 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 66 92 66 / 20 20 20 20 Belen........................... 91 64 94 66 / 20 10 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 90 65 93 65 / 20 20 20 30 Bosque Farms.................... 90 60 93 65 / 20 20 20 20 Corrales........................ 90 66 93 66 / 20 20 20 30 Los Lunas....................... 90 61 93 65 / 20 20 20 20 Placitas........................ 87 65 90 64 / 20 20 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 89 66 92 65 / 20 20 20 30 Socorro......................... 92 66 94 68 / 20 10 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 61 84 59 / 40 20 30 20 Tijeras......................... 84 62 87 62 / 30 20 30 20 Edgewood........................ 84 59 88 59 / 40 20 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 55 89 57 / 50 20 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 82 57 86 58 / 50 30 30 20 Mountainair..................... 84 59 87 60 / 40 20 30 20 Gran Quivira.................... 84 60 87 61 / 40 20 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 85 65 89 66 / 50 10 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 78 58 81 60 / 60 10 20 10 Capulin......................... 82 57 88 57 / 20 10 20 20 Raton........................... 86 56 90 56 / 30 10 30 20 Springer........................ 88 57 92 57 / 30 10 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 83 57 88 56 / 50 30 40 20 Clayton......................... 88 63 95 64 / 5 0 5 10 Roy............................. 85 60 92 60 / 20 10 20 20 Conchas......................... 93 66 98 67 / 10 10 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 90 66 95 66 / 20 20 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 92 67 100 68 / 5 5 5 10 Clovis.......................... 91 67 97 69 / 10 5 5 10 Portales........................ 92 67 98 70 / 20 5 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 92 68 98 69 / 10 10 10 10 Roswell......................... 94 70 102 72 / 10 5 5 5 Picacho......................... 88 65 92 67 / 20 5 20 10 Elk............................. 83 62 87 63 / 30 5 20 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ211-214-215-226. && SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...52
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:01 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Floodwaters carried significant amounts of mud, rocks, and debris across Mescalero Lane along the Rio Ruidoso west of Ruidoso. There was minor damage to an access gate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1109509.