Flood in New Mexico, April 12 to 13, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
317 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Isolated showers and storms are possible in western NM through the
evening. Strong southwesterly wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph and
widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow. A
cold front moves through on Friday, dropping temperatures around 10
degrees from Thursday. Westerly wind gusts up to 55 mph and critical
fire weather conditions are likely in eastern NM on Friday afternoon
while light rain and snow showers are possible in the north. Warming
temperatures and dry conditions prevail this weekend.
Southwesterly afternoon breezes and dry conditions prevail early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023

The upper level ridge over the area this morning is giving way to
southwest flow aloft as an upper trough slowly moves into the PacNW.
Cloud cover will continue to increase across northern and western NM
for the remainder of the afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance
within the southwest flow aloft crosses the state.  This disturbance
should also provide enough lift for isolated to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms, and this activity is already underway.
Precipitation will be light as surface dewpoints are in the teens
and 20s. Instead, gusty, mainly dry, microburst winds will be the
greater concern as strong inverted-V soundings suggest. Most of this
activity will diminish by the midnight hour. However, with cloud
cover persisting across central and western NM, and breezy
conditions persisting across the east, low temperatures will be
quite warm tonight. Most areas will see low temperatures 8 to 16
degrees above normal.

As the upper level trough inches closer to NM on Thursday, winds
will strengthen further with strong daytime mixing and a deepening
surface low over eastern CO. Breezy to windy conditions are expected
across most areas Thursday afternoon, with a few locations across
northeast NM nearing Wind Advisory speeds. Otherwise, slightly
cooler temperatures are expected as heights fall, though most areas
will remain near or above normal. The trough axis will finally begin
to trek across NM late Thursday night, with a few showers possible
across northwest NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023

A gusty cold front will quickly cross the state from west to east on
Friday. Winds will pick-up Friday afternoon along and east of the
central mountain chain in the wake of the front thanks to the tight
pressure gradient created by the ~994 mb low in northeastern NM. 700-
500mb lapse rates around 8C favor the development of convective
showers and even a few storms Friday afternoon in the high terrain
of northern New Mexico. It's possible that a few dry showers and
storms develop in central NM and produce localized gusty winds,
but the dry post-frontal airmass should inhibit most
precipitation from making it to the ground. A backdoor cold front
will dive southward along the eastern plains Friday night,
dropping temperatures a few more degrees. Breezy northwest winds
will pick- up again Saturday afternoon, but light winds should
return on Sunday.

Behind the exiting trough, a ridge will begin to build into place
and bring temperatures back above seasonal averages. Recent guidance
suggests that the ridge will be further south, decreasing the chance
that significant Gulf moisture makes it into eastern NM. However, a
weak shortwave will cross the state on Monday, potentially sparking
a few storms in the southeast. The arrival of the westerly wave does
not appear to coincide with peak daytime heating, thereby limiting
the chance of convection.

The upper-level ridge axis will propagate east of New Mexico early
next week. European and Canadian ensemble members favor a faster
moving and deeper trough that moves in behind the ridge while the
GEFS favors a slower transition from ridging to troughing on the
west coast. Southwesterly winds will begin to increase mid-week as
the trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Mostly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours,
however, isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop
across western NM late this afternoon. These storms will be
capable of gusty microburst winds up to 45kt as they shift
northeastward around 15-20 mph. Storms will continue into the
evening across northwest and north central NM before diminishing
around 06Z. Otherwise, expect a few southwest breezes today with
gusts near 25-30kt. Stronger winds are expected on Thursday ahead
of an upper level trough.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...

Critical fire weather conditions will continue this afternoon and
early evening across northeast NM where gusty southwest winds have
developed, humidity values have fallen between 6 and 12 percent and
temperatures are soaring well above normal.

Critical fire weather conditions will return on Thursday over a
broader area as an upper level trough approaches and southwest winds
strengthen further areawide.  Several hours of single digit RH is
expected across central areas on Thursday afternoon as temperatures
again soar above normal, though in general, temperatures will not be
as warm as today. Widespread high Haines is also expected.

The upper level trough will finally swing across the state late
Thursday night and Friday. Winds will veer around to the west behind
a Pacific cold front but will remain breezy to windy. Temperatures
will fall 10 to 15 degrees areawide, leaving only eastern NM near
normal. However, continued dry conditions, moderate to high Haines
and the strong winds will allow for critical conditions to develop
once again across the East Central Plains. It's possible that
critical conditions could develop across the Northeast Plains as
well, but will depend on the timing of a backdoor cold front.

Less wind is in store for Saturday, though continued breezy
conditions are expected in favored northwest flow areas.  Upper
level ridging will return for Sunday and Monday, allowing
temperatures to trend upward once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  69  40  59 /  10   5  10  10
Dulce...........................  38  67  33  54 /  30   5  10  20
Cuba............................  44  69  36  55 /  30   5   5  30
Gallup..........................  39  67  34  57 /  10   5   0   5
El Morro........................  40  64  33  54 /  20   5   0  10
Grants..........................  36  69  33  58 /  30   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  41  66  32  58 /  10   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  48  70  39  62 /  10   0   0   5
Datil...........................  42  66  33  58 /  10   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  37  70  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  45  74  40  66 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  35  60  29  47 /  30   5  10  30
Los Alamos......................  48  67  41  56 /  20   5   5  20
Pecos...........................  46  68  38  56 /  10   5   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  46  64  36  51 /  10   5   5  20
Red River.......................  37  56  29  45 /  10  10   5  30
Angel Fire......................  32  60  29  47 /  10   5   5  20
Taos............................  40  69  33  55 /   5   5   0  10
Mora............................  43  67  36  55 /   5   5   0  10
Espanola........................  46  75  40  62 /  10   5   0  10
Santa Fe........................  47  70  40  57 /  10   5   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  45  72  39  59 /  10   5   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  74  46  64 /  20   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  76  45  65 /  20   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  78  43  67 /  20   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  77  44  65 /  20   0   0  10
Belen...........................  48  79  42  69 /  20   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  50  78  44  66 /  20   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  47  78  41  68 /  10   0   0   5
Corrales........................  50  78  44  66 /  20   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  48  78  42  68 /  10   0   0   5
Placitas........................  50  75  45  62 /  20   5   0  20
Rio Rancho......................  50  77  45  65 /  20   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  50  80  44  72 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  69  41  57 /  20   0   0  20
Tijeras.........................  48  71  42  60 /  20   5   0  10
Edgewood........................  44  72  39  60 /  10   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  73  37  62 /  10   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  44  69  37  58 /   5   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  46  72  40  62 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  48  72  40  62 /   5   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  56  75  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  69  41  60 /   5   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  44  73  37  61 /   0   5   0  20
Raton...........................  43  76  36  63 /   0   5   0  10
Springer........................  43  76  38  65 /   0   0   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  44  72  39  60 /   0   0   0   5
Clayton.........................  51  79  45  70 /   0  10   0  10
Roy.............................  48  75  43  66 /   0   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  52  83  48  72 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  48  79  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  53  83  48  74 /   0  10   5   0
Clovis..........................  50  82  47  74 /   0  20   5   0
Portales........................  51  85  48  76 /   0  20   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  50  83  47  73 /   0   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  52  87  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  51  79  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  50  76  45  68 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-106-
109-123>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NMZ126.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
402 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023

NMZ213-215-227-228-230-122230-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Union County-Johnson
and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
402 PM MDT Wed Apr 12 2023

...A CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS
OF NORTHWESTERN UNION, NORTHEASTERN MORA AND COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH
430 PM MDT...

At 400 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of rain showers
near Raton Crews Airport, to near Raton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Raton, Springer, Cimarron, Eagle Nest, Maxwell, Des Moines, Folsom,
Capulin, Sugarite Canyon State Park and Sugarite.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 396 and 460.
 Highway 64 between Mile Markers 285 and 390.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Blowing dust associated with strong winds can reduce visibilities
below one quarter mile at times.

&&

LAT...LON 3673 10373 3610 10472 3655 10527 3699 10466
      3700 10402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 243DEG 27KT 3665 10457

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

34

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
424 PM MDT WED APR 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SW RATON              36.84N 104.49W
04/12/2023  M59 MPH          COLFAX             NM   ASOS

&&

TRM