Another AR enhanced winter storm brought travel impacts to the region later Monday night through Wednesday, with strong winds, heavy Sierra snowfall, and periods of moderate valley rain or snow. A boom-bust scenario was projected to express the uncertainty of the track of a surface low track along the California coast.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS REV wrote it up.
Another AR enhanced winter storm brought travel impacts to the region later Monday night through Wednesday, with strong winds, heavy Sierra snowfall, and periods of moderate valley rain or snow. A boom-bust scenario was projected to express the uncertainty of the track of a surface low track along the California coast. If the low tracked more south and offshore, this would limit the amount of moisture and mesoscale lift necessary for heavier snowfall across the region and lead to the higher chance bust scenario. The lower probability boom scenario included if the low tracked closer to the Sierra Nevada and crossed into western Nevada. This projected track was expected to lead to stronger frontogenesis and moisture flux that would generate more persistent bands of heavier snowfall. With the high spread of potential scenarios, the official forecast split the difference.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 25, 1:43 AM PST, 7 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
243 AM PDT Sat Mar 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A stubborn upper-level trough will continue to bring unseasonably
colder temperatures and periods of scattered snow showers across
the region through the weekend. Another winter storm will bring a
fresh period of travel impacts to the region later Monday night
through Wednesday, with stronger winds, heavy Sierra snowfall, and
valley rain or snow possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night...
Unseasonably colder morning temperatures today will struggle to
climb into the 40s for most lower valley areas across western
Nevada, with lower Sierra valleys barely rising a few degrees
above freezing. Overnight lows into Sunday morning will change
little from the previous morning with lows over Sierra valleys
dropping into teens and single digits, with low to mid 20s for
lower western Nevada valleys. Daytime highs Sunday will show
little in the way of any reasonable recovery with lower valleys
topping out in the low to mid 40s. Highs for some lower Sierra
valleys may even show a modest recovery into the upper 30s. Mono
County locations will once again stay on the lower end of the
temperature scale, mostly at or below freezing.
Current Hi-Res model guidance projects a few light snow showers
lingering this morning around the higher elevations of the Carson
Range and the Virginia Range, before giving way to more organized
bands of light showers later this afternoon.
Colder air aloft and diurnal heating at the surface layer, coupled
with back-door upper shortwaves rotating east and southeast
overhead both later today and Sunday will destabilize the low-
mid levels enough to produce hit and miss showers across parts of
northeast CA, the length of the Sierra front and the Basin and
Range. Precipitation amounts will stay on the lighter side at a
few hundredths of an inch. Accumulations for higher elevation snow
showers around the Lake Tahoe Basin and the Basin and Range will
also be light--generally less than an inch. Breezy winds will
also accompany the passage of the upper trough this afternoon with
gusts 25-35 mph mostly along and north of the I-80 corridor. These
winds could bring a short period of choppy conditions on area
lakes across western Nevada.
-Amanda
.LONG TERM...Monday through Next Week...
No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast for next
week, with the current Winter Storm Watch (Sierra/NE CA zones) and
Special Weather Statement (Western NV zones) containing more
details on snowfall and peak wind gust projections.
* Monday will be a transition day leading to the next stronger
storm arriving Monday night through Wednesday. Modest warm air
advection ahead of this storm will bring a slight increase in
temperatures Monday afternoon, but it won't feel very much
warmer with cloud cover and south-southeast winds increasing
throughout the day.
Impactful Winter Storm Monday Night through Wednesday:
* Winds: The most likely storm track will bring increased south
winds Monday night-Tuesday morning as the main moisture feed
advances toward the Sierra, before shifting more to the
southwest when the cold front passes through the region Tuesday
afternoon- evening. The stronger and more impactful gusts will
be mainly limited to the higher elevations, although a short
period of enhanced gusts (40-50 mph) could accompany the cold
front passage.
* QPF/Snowfall: The most widespread precipitation is likely within
a 12-18 hour window late Monday night into Tuesday evening. The
south flow will limit the amount of precip spreading into
western NV at first, then instability along the front will push
a band of rain and snow farther into western NV Tuesday
afternoon-evening, with snow levels likely falling to near most
valley floors in far western NV, but remaining near 4000-4500
feet for the US-95 corridor in the Basin and Range as the precip
winds down. After the cold front clears the region, the
remainder of Tuesday night-Wednesday presents some boom-bust
scenarios depending on the upper low's track and where
convective snow shower bands set up. The "bust" scenario with a
25% probability - If the low tracks more south and offshore,
fewer snow shower bands would reach the Sierra with minimal
additional accumulations. The "boom" scenario with a 20%
probability - If the low tracks close to the Sierra or moves
into western NV, some areas could see enhanced snow
accumulations near to or even locally above the higher end
snowfall projections mentioned in current statements. The
enhanced snowfall totals will come from persistent convective
bands or areas of wrap-around snow, especially if snow falls
into the night/morning hours. Our official forecast splits the
difference somewhat, but allows for added QPF/snow amounts
Wednesday mainly in eastern CA from Tahoe southward and parts of
western NV south of US-50. Liquid equivalent QPF projections
for this storm continue to approach 2.5" near the Sierra crest,
with 0.75"-1.5" from western Lassen County southward across the
Tahoe basin, Alpine County and Mono County west of US-395.
Amounts trail off to between 0.20-0.50" for the remainder of
eastern CA east of US-395 and most of western NV including the
main urban areas, except lesser amounts around 0.10" for the
Basin and Range/US-95/US-95A corridors north of Walker Lake.
* Impacts: Heavy snowfall could exacerbate the ongoing snow load
concerns, especially if the "boom" scenario pans out. Due to the
higher snow-to-liquid ratios, gusty winds may also bring areas
of blowing and drifting snow, which would further reduce
visibility and bring significant travel difficulties across the
Sierra Nevada. Periods of stronger winds Monday night into
Tuesday will pose a threat to aviation interests, high-profile
vehicles, and recreation. Use this quiet period through Monday
morning to prepare for this winter storm.
Later Next Week into the first weekend of April:
* North-to-northwest flow aloft looks to keep temperatures well
below average, with weak shortwave passages bringing chances for
light snow showers Thursday and Friday. We may catch a small
break with some moderation in temperatures for the start of
April. However, a small (but growing) percentage of ensemble
members are fooling with the idea of another possible cold low
dropping in from the north, dropping snow levels to most valley
floors again by early Sunday morning and reinforcing this
stretch of well below average temperatures. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
* Generally VFR conditions prevail through Sunday outside isolated
snow showers mainly north of US-50 and along the Sierra each
afternoon and evening, where brief MVFR/IFR with mountain
obscurations are possible. Brief accumulations up to 1/2 inch
are possible at KTRK-KTVL-KMMH with little or no accumulation at
other terminals. Breezy west-northwest winds will develop each
afternoon/evening across the ridges and over western NV, gusts
generally peaking around 20-25 kts today, then about 5 kts
lighter for Sunday.
* Our next winter storm approaches Monday and moves through the
Sierra and western NV Monday night through Wednesday. The worst
conditions will occur late Monday night into Tuesday evening as
the front and most intense bands of wind and snow move through
the region from north to south. Prepare for widespread
turbulence/LLWS and heavy snow throughout the Sierra during this
time frame. Snow levels will fall to all valley floors, so some
light accumulating snow cannot be ruled out by late Tuesday
afternoon/evening. As the front exits to the south, winds will
lessen late Tuesday night and Wednesday. However, it will remain
unstable with scattered snow showers, especially in Sierra
locations. MJD
&&
.AVALANCHE...
* We will see overall quieter conditions this weekend, with a few
brief snow showers producing minimal additional accumulations
(up to an inch in the heavier showers).
* A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Monday evening
through Wednesday afternoon for the Lake Tahoe basin, and
Monday night through Wednesday afternoon for Mono County. This
impactful storm looks to bring additional SWE amounts of 2-3".
With this system on the colder side, snow-to-liquid ratios
should generally range from 12:1 to 15:1. At this time, 2-3 feet
of snow are possible along the Sierra crest, with 1-2 feet for
areas above 8000 feet. Strong ridge gusts to 100+ mph may also
produce blowing and drifting snow. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday
afternoon NVZ002.
CA...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday
afternoon CAZ071-072.
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday
afternoon CAZ073.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
The public in Storey County, located 6.0 mi N of Virginia City, NV, reported a 24-hour snowfall total of 9.3 inches.
The public located 8.0 mi SW of Lockwood, NV, 6.0 mi N of Washoe City, NV, and 4.0 mi SSW of Reno, NV reported a 24-hour snowfall total of 8.5, 8.0, and 6.0 inches respectively.
The public located in Yerington, NV, reported a 24-hour snowfall total of 8.0 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nevada in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Nevada, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1099153, 1099154, 1099155.