Damaging Wind in Nevada, June 4, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
219 PM PDT Sun Jun 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A fairly stable weather pattern is forecast to
continue with a large scale high pressure ridge over the central
US that is acting to block any eastward progressing low pressure
systems over the western US. A fairly active subtropical jet
between 20 to 30 degrees north is forecast to bring another low
pressure system into the west coast to effect Nevada later in the
week. Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity is
forecast to continue Elko and eastern Humboldt counties today and
then over most of northeast and central Nevada on Monday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A weak upper level low currently situated over
northwest UTAH/northeast Nevada is forecast by the ensemble
system and the deterministic models to lift northward into Idaho
on Monday and continue a track into the panhandle of Idaho by late
Monday. For northeast and central Nevada a weak upper level high
pressure ridge is forecast over the area on Monday. There will be
a slight downward trend in afternoon and evening thunderstorms for
Monday. Then on Tuesday, a fairly active subtropical jet between
20 to 30 degrees north is forecast to bring another low pressure
system up along the coast into Monterey County CA. For northeast
and central Nevada the forecast shows weak shear and weak upper
level diffluence to enhance thunderstorm structure and development
over portions of Elko, Northern Lander and Eureka, and Humboldt
counties for Tuesday for perhaps some organized afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. The ensemble system is suggestive of dFor Wednesday, the low pressure system located over Southern
California shifts a bit northeastward limiting showers and
thunderstorms to far northern Nevada. This low is expected to
transit over the state Thursday bringing more active weather into
northern Nevada. Ensemble and deterministic models indicate a
broad troughing pattern extending from the northeast Pacific into
the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin region. In addition,
probabilities for any precipitation remain quite high with values
of 60-70% across northeastern Nevada through Sunday. Stronger
storms can be expected to bring heavy rainfall with the potential
of flash flooding, erratic gusty winds, and hail. Temperatures
will remain warm in the 70s and 80s for Wednesday before slowly
declining through next weekend pushing temperatures below normal
for early next week. Lows will drop into the 40s and 50s. rier
air wrapping northward into northern Nye, portions of White Pine,
southern Lander and Irk counties where thunderstorm activity could
be limited due to the lack of moisture.

.LONG TERM...
For Wednesday, the low pressure system located over Southern
California shifts a bit northeastward limiting showers and
thunderstorms to far northern Nevada. This low is expected to
transit over the state Thursday bringing more active weather into
northern Nevada. Ensemble and deterministic models indicate a
broad troughing pattern extending from the northeast Pacific into
the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin region. In addition,
probabilities for any precipitation remain quite high with values
of 60-70% across northeastern Nevada through Sunday. Stronger
storms can be expected to bring heavy rainfall with the potential
of flash flooding, erratic gusty winds, and hail. Temperatures
will remain warm in the 70s and 80s for Wednesday before slowly
declining through next weekend pushing temperatures below normal
for early next week. Lows will drop into the 40s and 50s.
&&

.AVIATION...A more active pattern is expected this afternoon
with the probability (25-35%) of scattered thunderstorms forming
near KEKO terminal and a slight chance (10-15%) of isolated
thunderstorms near KELY. This evening the probability (10-15%) of
isolated showers are possible at KTPH. VFR conditions forecast
for all other terminals.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...River and stream flows remain high and swift as
snowpack continues to melt from central and northern Nevada
mountains. The active weather pattern persists, with afternoon
and evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Probabilities remain
low that any given thunderstorm will cause increased hydrologic
impacts. Smaller creeks like Lamoille will see diurnal
fluctuations, but larger rivers that are slower responding will
continue to run high. Mary's River above Hot Springs near Deeth
and the Humboldt River near Elko has dipped below action stage
and will continue to lower throughout the week. The Humboldt
River near Carlin is expected to hold steady right at minor stage
while decreases in the Humboldt River at Palisade (Action Stage)
and Battle Mountain (Minor Stage) are also forecast for the
upcoming week. The Humboldt River at Comus is expected to hold
steady at Moderate Stage through next Wednesday.
&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

85/95/95

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Elko NV
106 PM PDT Sun Jun 4 2023

NVZ031-042030-
Northern Elko County NV-
106 PM PDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Elko
County through 130 PM PDT...

At 106 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout 14 miles northeast of Owyhee, moving
north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, winds in excess of 30 mph, and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 11567 4173 11581 4184 11607 4200 11600
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 200DEG 38KT 4204 11584

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

91