Flooding in Nevada, April 10 to 12, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
153 PM PDT Mon Apr 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...The above normal temperatures will continue across
the silver state today and Tuesday. These warm temperatures will
promote snowmelt and increases in runoff. This will lead to high
stream and creek flow and may result in overland flooding. A
winter system arrives mid-week, bringing another cool down along
with a chance for light rain, snow, and even a thunderstorm.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Upper level ridge axis has
moved east of the area with an upper level low pressure now moving
into the region. The above normal temperatures will remain today
and Tuesday with highs in the 60s and 70s. These warm conditions
will remain overnight with lows in the 30s and 40s. These
temperatures are about 5 to 15 degree above normal for this time
of year depending on location and elevation. The upper low will be
causing gusty winds across the silver state for today and Tuesday
with gusts mainly in the 20s to 30s mph range. While a long shot
an isolated light shower or two can occur Tuesday in far NW NV.
Even if a shower does form it shouldn't result in any measurable
precipitation. The biggest impactor for the today and Tuesday is
the ongoing snowmelt caused by the above normal temperatures. See
the hydro section for more details.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.

Models are still trending for a much weaker push to the upcoming
frontal system than what was present in prior runs. As it stands
the associated upper-level trough is scheduled to hold more north
resulting in more of a brushing from the system rather than the
expected full push. Showers are still expected for Wednesday and
parts of Thursday. However, latest trends are keeping the activity
in the eastern portion of Nevada with accumulation amounts
diminishing quite a bit. Secondary to this frontal passage will be
the strengthening of the winds ahead of the front Wednesday.
Currently strongest winds will be mostly featured in the southern
portion of White Pine County, but widespread breezy conditions
will be likely for a majority of that afternoon. One uncertainly
that still remains is that of more convective like storms during
the afternoon hours. Currently latest model runs are seeing some
potential over White Pine County that could lead to an isolated
thunderstorm or two along the frontal boundary, but current
confidence is low. Otherwise, activity should slowly diminish over
the course of Thursday with relatively dry conditions expected
across the CWA by Friday. As we head into the weekend, dry
conditions will look to hold as model agreement sees a new ridge
build in behind the trough and potentially last into Monday.

As for temperatures, a cool down will look to follow the frontal
passage thanks, in part, to the northerly flow that follows behind
the trough. Look for afternoon high temperatures to drop into the
mid to low 40s by Thursday with some hints of these temperature
in Northern Nevada Wednesday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will
slowly return to below freezing with temperatures once again in
the 20s by Wednesday night. However, the cool off will look to be
short lived as we once again start to warm up for the weekend.
Look for temperatures to once again return to the 60s by Saturday
with potential for high 60s to 70s by Sunday afternoon.

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.AVIATION...VFR conditions should hold over all terminals through
the next 24 hours with the occasional SCT to BKN high cloud decks
present later tonight. Breeze to gusty winds will be seen across
all terminals into the early evening. However, KELY is currently
expected to see gusts in the 20 kt range clear through the
overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The ongoing above normal warm temperatures is
causing an increase in the snowmelt across the silver state for
the low and mid elevations. Creeks and rivers are showing higher
than normal flows which will continue for the next few days. Some
creeks are even reaching flood stage. Martin Creek in Paradise
Valley is expected to flood so a flood warning is valid for it today
to Tuesday morning. A flood watch remains in effect across NV due
to elevated concerns regarding snowmelt flooding. Possible
impacts from snowmelt flooding include muddy conditions, washed
out roads, and eventually river flooding. It is important to
remember, that should you encounter areas of flooding, or flowing
water across roadways, do not attempt to cross, turn around don’t
drown. Do not drive in swampy areas as vehicles can easily become
stuck in mud. Please obey all roadway restrictions you encounter,
and report any flooding to local law enforcement when it is safe
to do so.

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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through Tuesday evening Humboldt County...
Northeastern Nye County...Northern Elko County...Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...
South Central Elko County...Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County...Southwest Elko County...White Pine County.

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99/94/94/99