Diurnal development of isolated storms occurred once again, in an environment of very weak shear and modest MLCAPE. With an environment which featured considerable dry air at lower levels, a brief outflow pulse developed which resulted in wind damage.
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The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
Diurnal development of isolated storms occurred once again, in an environment of very weak shear and modest MLCAPE. With an environment which featured considerable dry air at lower levels, a brief outflow pulse developed which resulted in wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 7, 5:16 PM CST, 4 hours 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 616 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Key Messages: 1. Isolated severe weather potential between 3 pm to 9 pm this evening. Hail up to the size of quarters, damaging winds to 60 mph, and brief heavy rain are possible this afternoon and evening. 2. Another chance for strong to severe storms is possible tomorrow around the I-29 corridor. Isolated damaging gusts and large hail are possible. 3. Rain chances continue through Saturday before dry conditions return for early next week. --------------------------------------------------------------------- A diurnally driven cumulus field has developed this afternoon, mainly west of I-29. This is indicative of our now typical daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing. Taking a look at the mesoscale reveals that a surface cold front has stalled around the James River, leaving a narrow warm sector in part of its wake. This warm sector is confined to west of I-29 west towards the Missouri River and is the best location for low end severe weather this afternoon. In this warm sector, CAPE values up to 1000-2000 J/kg and DCAPE up to 700-1200 J/kg (highest towards the Missouri River in central South Dakota) is expected but shear will be minimal with 0-6 km shear values only up to 15-20 knots. This will lead to isolated severe potential with large hail up to the size of quarters, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and brief heavy rain. The main timeframe for severe weather will be between 3 pm to 9 pm this evening. Like the past several days, should see showers and storms wane during the evening hours as the instability is used up and the boundary layer stabilizes. Soundings do show some weak elevated instability on the order of 300 J/kg or less so can't rule out an isolated shower or very weak storm during the overnight hours. Hi- res guidance has also been hinting at the possibility of light showers pushing into portions of the highway-59 corridor. Forcing will be quite weak and soundings show marginally dry low levels. However, mid to upper level moisture will be streaming in via the northerly flow aloft so have left slight chance PoPs in this area for the overnight hours. Lows will fall to the 60s overnight. Upper level ridging continues to move westward tomorrow, allowing an occluding low over the northeastern CONUS to slide a tad bit further west. This will bring stronger shear to the forecast area but it will lie east of I-29. West of the interstate is where the best instability will reside, up to around 2000 J/kg. However, DCAPE looks to be a bit weaker on the order of around 700 J/kg. Wednesday's cold front will push west of the Missouri River, keeping any surface boundary a bit outside of the forecast area. Still will see diurnally driven showers and storms given the instability in place but there could be a small overlap of shear and instability around the I-29 corridor. With enough shear, up to around 20-30 knots of 0-6km shear, and instability in place, multicells capable of isolated damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. Thus agree with SPC day 2 marginal risk. Aside from severe weather chances, tomorrow will be another hot day with highs in the 80s and 90s and lows again falling to the 60s overnight. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Upper level ridging continues to push westward on Friday, placing the forecast area downstream of the ridge. Synoptically, this is a better location to be in for rain chances. This may be the case but there is some uncertainty. With the westward moving ridge, the warm sector also looks to push a bit further westward, pulling the best instability westward with it. An upper wave will begin to slide down the east side of the ridge. This may spark showers and storms which could deliver some rain to the area. Amounts are a bit uncertain as of now but the GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensemble all show a 70-90% chance for receiving a tenth of an inch of rain or more. High temperatures will fall a little bit as 850 mb temperatures slightly cool to the mid upper teens. This will result in high temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s from east to west. This same wave will drag a cold front with it during the overnight hours and into Saturday morning. Despite the front coming through, low temperatures look to again fall to the 60s. The weekend begins with the previously mentioned wave continuing to drag its cold front southward on Saturday. This front may spark another chance for showers and storms. Ensembles support this notion as they show a 50-70% chance for exceeding 500 J/kg of CAPE and a 60- 80% chance for exceeding a tenth of an inch of rain. The front will push south of the area by Saturday night, putting an end to any rain chances. Northerly flow behind the front on Sunday will keep the forecast area dry with clear skies. Temperatures will be a bit cooler over the weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s. The beginning of next week looks to be mostly dry as medium range guidance keeps a strong southern jet stream over the central and southern Plains states. Can't rule out the possibility of some rain chances north of the southern jet as medium range guidance hints at some weak shortwaves passing through the forecast area. However, ensembles remain relatively unexcited for rain chances as they all show only a 10-30% chances for a tenth of an inch or more. Aside from rain chances, highs look to remain in the upper 70s and 80s through early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Showers and storms continue to drop south through this evening. Wind gusts to 30 knots as well as MVFR or lower conditions expected with any stronger showers/storms with heavy rain. Outflow boundaries may cause some briefly erratic winds. Outside of convection, VFR conditions prevail. Additional showers and storms are possible toward daybreak Thursday and again Thursday afternoon and evening; however, will omit from this forecast given low confidence in coverage. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && SHORT TERM...Meyers LONG TERM...Meyers AVIATION...SG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 859 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-090200- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook- Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton- Union- 859 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Showers and isolated storms taper off late this evening. Severe weather is not expected, but brief gusty winds to 45 mph and pockets of heavy rain are still possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Chances for thunderstorms continue off and on through Saturday with very low severe weather risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
635 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0621 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 4 S Arlington 44.30N 97.13W
06/07/2023 M52 MPH Kingsbury SD Mesonet
Mesonet station 162 SD RWIS Arlington.
&&
TRMPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
823 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0755 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NNW Huron 44.39N 98.23W
06/07/2023 M51 MPH Beadle SD ASOS
ASOS station KHON Huron Regional Airport.
&&
TRMThe Omaha radar (KOAX), 112 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:25 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds snapped several large trees and caused minor roof damage to a couple of houses.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1111364.