Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 29, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
206 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Key Messages:

 - Potential MCS to roll through the southern portion of the
   forecast area this morning bringing possible damaging winds and
   localized heavy rainfall to the area.

 - Periodic showers and thunderstorms Friday with more widespread
   chances Saturday.

 - Mostly dry and warm Sunday through Independence Day.

Focus this morning is on the convection rolling across southern
Nebraska. This complex is forecast to become more of an MCS and
is forecast to push into our southeastern Nebraska counties over
the next few hours per latest CAMs. Damaging wind and localized
heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards as it quickly moves
east through the forecast area. Storms will be moving into a
favorable environment with plenty of deep layer shear as well as
an axis of high 0-3km shear along the Kansas/Nebraska border. The
storms will also be moving into a very unstable airmass where
MUCAPE values are on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg to sustain
updrafts. This complex will likely continue to roll through
southern Iowa through the morning.

An active weather pattern will continue through the holiday weekend
as a mid-level trough over the western U.S. advances eastward and
eventually into the central Plains on Saturday. Ahead of this, a
series of shortwaves will move east in a belt of enhanced mid-
level flow across Nebraska and Iowa. A surface boundary is
forecast to remain draped across Kansas and Missouri and finally
pushed out of the area as the mid- level trough moves across
eastern Nebraska/western Iowa on Saturday. Periodic chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be on the high side as plenty of
moisture resides overhead with PWATs near 100-150% of normal
through this time. The best chance for heaviest and more
widespread rainfall looks to be Friday night through Saturday in
advance of the approaching mid-level trough. Periodic strong to
severe storms will also be possible through this time with large
hail and locally heavy rainfall as the primary hazards.

Friday highs are forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s with cooler
highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to low 80s with the passage of
the upper trough on Saturday.

Heights will build over the region with the passage of the above
mentioned upper trough by Sunday which should push temperatures back
into the upper 80s after a bit of a reprieve with the trough passage
on Saturday. By Monday, highs return to the 90s for most areas with
slightly warmer readings and continued dry conditions for
Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Short term guidance is in better agreement that a cluster/line of
strong to severe storms will move through southeast NE early
Thursday morning, likely impacting KLNK and KOMA, and possibly
KOFK. However, there remains quite a bit of spread on timing. For
now, introduced 2 and 3 hour TEMPO groups at KLNK and KOMA,
respectively, beginning at 11Z, but that could shift as early as
9Z or as late as 13Z based on current guidance. For now, kept
winds below 35 kts, but very well could have to increase that
pending storm trends off to the west. Otherwise outside of storms,
VFR conditions will prevail with passing mid clouds and light
north winds becoming northeasterly to easterly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
337 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-292245-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
337 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe storms are possible early this morning, mainly along and
south of a line from Seward to Lincoln to Plattsmouth. Damaging
wind gusts are the main hazards with this activity.

Strong to severe storms developing over western and central parts
of Nebraska this afternoon and evening could move into the area
late tonight into Friday morning. Large hail, damaging winds, and
localized flooding are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of potentially strong storms appears possible late
Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.