An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes region and an upper level ridge was centered over Arizona and New Mexico. South central and central Nebraska were on the backside of the upper trough.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes region and an upper level ridge was centered over Arizona and New Mexico. South central and central Nebraska were on the backside of the upper trough. The edge of a cooler airmass was moving across central Nebraska and an upper disturbance was moving near the area. This had provided enhanced lift in the atmosphere. The air was moist with dewpoints in the 60s. Most unstable CAPE values were generally 2,000+ J/kg across the area, and zero to six km wind shear values were 50+ knots.
Storms were developing across south central and central Nebraska during the early morning hours. One of these storms developed and strengthened to the west and moved eastward towards Merrick County. This storm produced an estimated 70 mph wind gust at 4:55 AM CDT which damaged trees, a home, and a power pole.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 2:37 AM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 337 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Key Messages: * Strong to severe storms are possible this morning and again tonight. * Heat index values near or at 100 degrees possible today for portions of north central Kansas. Heat index values of 100+ degrees are expected for most of Rooks, Osborne, and Mitchell Counties for Tuesday. * Showers and thunderstorms are possible across at least a portion of the forecast area each day through Saturday night. Today and tonight... An upper trough is centered over the Great Lakes region and an upper ridge is centered over Arizona and New Mexico. South central Nebraska and north central Kansas are on the backside of the upper trough. The edge of a cooler airmass is moving across central Nebraska and an upper disturbance is moving near the area. This has provided enhanced lift in the atmosphere. The air is moist with dewpoints in the 60s. Most unstable CAPE values are generally 2000+ J/kg across the area, and 0 to 6 km wind shear values are 50+ knots. Storms are developing across south central and central Nebraska. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected through most of the morning. The afternoon hours are expected to be dry then another shortwave will move over the area tonight. This will provide additional atmospheric lift and will combine with high 0 to 6 km wind shear and modest moisture. Strong to severe storms will be possible tonight across central and south central Nebraska as well as portions of north central Kansas. The primary area to be affected from these storms at this time looks to be areas along and to the north and east of the Tri Cities in Nebraska. Quarter size hail and 60 mph winds will be possible with these storms. High temperatures today will range from the low 80s to low 90s. Portions of Rooks, Osborne, and Mitchell Counties may experience heat index values near or at 100 degrees today. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday... The upper trough moves eastward on Tuesday and the upper ridge expands eastward to cover the Southern Plains. North central Kansas and south central Nebraska will remain in between these features. Temperatures heat up a little across the area on Tuesday with the greatest warm up across southern portions of the forecast area. Highs will range from the lower 80s to upper 90s. Heat index values of 100+ degrees are expected across most of Rooks, Osborne, and Mitchell Counties. Tuesday afternoon is expected to be mostly dry. Wednesday through Sunday... An upper trough will move over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday which will result in a cold front pushing south towards the area. High temperatures will depend on the timing of this front, but at this time, expecting temperatures to warm up into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Rain and storms are possible with the arrival of this front. Temperatures will cool slightly across the area on Thursday with the surface high nearby. An upper trough will dominate most of the eastern half of the country on Friday with the upper ridge building over the Desert Southwest. Nebraska and Kansas will be on the western edge of the trough. Temperatures will continue to cool with highs ranging from the lower to mid 80s. Rain and storms will be possible across portions of the area as upper disturbances move overhead. Both the upper ridge and upper trough will amplify on Saturday. Temperatures may warm up a little on Saturday from the previous day. This warming trend is expected on continue into Sunday with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to lower 70s throughout the forecast time frame. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Winds will be light out of the south then switch to the north by 09z. Winds will then become northeasterly by 12z then be out of the east during the afternoon hours. Haze and smoke are expected beginning around 09z with the northerly wind shift and will continue through the morning hours. Thunderstorms are possible across the area beginning around 09z and continuing until around 15z but confidence is low. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Schuldt
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 405 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 180915- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 405 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible this morning. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with hail up to quarter size and winds up to 60 mph. Another round of storms is expected tonight. These storms will mainly impact areas along and north and east of the Tri Cities in Nebraska. There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather with these storms. Hail up to quarter size and winds up to 60 mph will be possible. Heat index values are forecast to be near or at 100 degrees across portions of Rooks, Osborne, and Mitchell Counties today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Storms may linger into Tuesday morning. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Between Tuesday night and Saturday night, there are intermittent chances for thunderstorms across various portions of the outlook area. There is a marginal risk of severe weather Tuesday through Wednesday night. In addition to the various upcoming thunderstorm chances, on Tuesday afternoon, heat index values are forecast to climb to at least 100 degrees mainly within portions of north central Kansas, and particularly Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size along with any damaging wind gusts that might occur through tonight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Hastings NE 213 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 NEZ060-170745- Dawson NE- 213 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Dawson County through 245 AM CDT... At 212 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9 miles south of Oconto, or 16 miles north of Lexington, moving south at 35 mph. HAZARD...Nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Lexington. This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 228 and 229. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service office in Hastings. && LAT...LON 4105 9966 4080 9954 4079 9990 4105 9992 TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 339DEG 30KT 4101 9981 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH ADP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
232 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023
NEZ060-061-073-170800-
Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Dawson NE-
232 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Phelps,
southwestern Buffalo and southeastern Dawson Counties through 300 AM
CDT...
At 232 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Overton, or 7 miles east of Lexington, moving southeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Overton around 240 AM CDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Loomis.
This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 243 and 258.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Hastings.
&&
LAT...LON 4090 9975 4095 9959 4054 9921 4046 9960
4062 9964 4068 9964 4075 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 332DEG 40KT 4079 9960
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
ADPThe Grand Island radar (KUEX), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:52 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree damage was reported in the area, including downed limbs which damaged a home, and a power pole was also damaged.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1113918.