Damaging Wind in Montana, May 15, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
235 PM MDT Mon May 15 2023

.DISCUSSION...An upper low across northeastern Oregon is spinning
moisture into the northern Rockies this afternoon triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms will gradually develop
and move northward through this evening. In addition to lightning,
brief heavy rain and gusty outflows will occur with storms.

This upper low will continue to spin across the region and usher
in moist unstable air Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in
scattered showers and storms. One notable difference is that on
late Tuesday a weak wave will move into northwest Montana from
Alberta. A boundary of precip will form from this feature across
northwest Montana and along the Canadian border. Some appreciable
rains will occur there through Wednesday morning.

An anomalous strong ridge will occur over the NR Friday through
Sunday and pop temperatures up well into the 80s and possibly the
lower 90s on Saturday. Moisture will move through this ridge
bringing the widely scattered thunderstorms to the region.

Above normal temperatures will persist much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Convection has begun this afternoon over KSMN and will
continue to spread north into the vicinity of KMSO and KBTM
throughout this afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of
erratic, gusty outflow winds of about 30-40 knots, small hail,
brief heavy rain, and lightning. Thunderstorm activity will
dissipate by around sunset. Expect a similar pattern for Tuesday.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&