Hail and Damaging Wind in Missouri, September 5, 2023

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
609 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE SEP 5 2023

Key Messages:

- Storms possible after 5PM east of I-35; A strong storm is possible
with main hazards being strong winds and small hail

- Next notable chance for precipitation comes this weekend into
early next week

Currently, there is a 500MB low pressure system to the northwest of
the CWA over the Dakotas. A surface cold front is extending down
into eastern KS is currently moving through the CWA. At the moment,
winds are coming from a southerly direction around 25-30 mph. A
moderately unstable air mass is in place, as warm moist air pushes
in from the Gulf. MLCAPE values range from 2000-2500 J/kg. There is
still some formidable MLCIN in place that will help to prevent
convection over the next hour or two. However, the passage of the
cold front will help erode the CIN and provide low level forcing to
help develop convection. Hail may be a concern with steep mid-level
lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Winds are likely to be a hazard with
T/Td depressions around 20-25 degrees. Expect mostly linear
convective mode as the storms convect eastward due to broad forcing
from the cold front as well as cold pool interactions.

Cooler, drier conditions are expected Wednesday with northwesterly
wind flow after the passage of the front. Highs are expected to
reach the low 80s and the lows into the low to mid 60s. Winds are
expected to gust around 15-20 mph from a northwesterly direction.
Current satellite imagery is showing haze over the northern plains.
As the surface ridge becomes more established, northwesterly surface
flow will help to advect haze into the CWA.

By the weekend, the surface high will move east which will help push
warm, moist air back toward the northwest into eastern KS. Warm air
advection showers and tstorms will be possible late in the weekend
and into early next week. With the strong mid-level ridge to the
west expect northwest flow aloft to confine the highest precip
chance across eastern KS.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE SEP 5 2023

Frontal passage has taken place, so prevailing W/NW winds expected for
the duration of the TAF period. Some hint in the forecast soundings of
some early morning low clouds. Certainty is low on whether there
will be a continuous low stratus deck but went with a few hours
of MVFR in response to some saturated low level profiles tomorrow
AM.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Collier
Aviation...Leighton

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
358 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-060900-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
358 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hot and humid conditions today may create heat indices of 100-105 F
mainly along and south of I-70 this afternoon. This evening, there is
a chance for thunderstorms east of I-35. A few stronger storms may
produce wind gusts to 60 mph.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
542 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

MOZ037-043-052315-
Cass MO-Jackson MO-
542 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cass
and south central Jackson Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peculiar, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, Lake Winnebago, Lone Jack,
East Lynne, Baldwin Park, Strasburg and Gunn City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 9440 3878 9446 3889 9420 3867 9413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 250DEG 19KT 3874 9435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDB