Precipitation deficits over the previous several months created severe to extreme drought across many counties in Missouri for September 2023.
Every event with a place to put it; 17 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
Precipitation deficits over the previous several months created severe to extreme drought across many counties in Missouri for September 2023.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 11:25 PM CST, 35 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1225 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 .Discussion... Issued at 338 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2023 Key Messages: -Warm temperatures expected with highs in the 80s slowly increasing to the mid 90s through Tuesday. Heat indices peak right at 100 early next week. -Long term guidance suggests rain chances return early next week Detailed Discussion: Dominant high pressure to the SW of the CWA remains the main weather driver for the forecast area. This high pressure is anticipated to slowly move towards the CWA and impact the area for the next several days. Dry conditions are expected with weak, northerly upper level flow. Limited cloud coverage, in addition to light winds, will allow temps to reach the mid 80s. Temperatures are slightly cooler than yesterday due to the northerly flow in the upper levels. The surface high is forecasted to move northeast towards central CONUS gradually shifting the winds to a more southeasterly direction. On Friday, winds shift more south-southeasterly and advect warmer more humid air into the forecast area. Temperatures are forecasted to peak in the upper 80s with lows in the mid 50s. The high pressure is expected to move to the east of the forecast area, which will shift winds completely to the south. Steady warm air advection associated with the southerly winds will continue to increase temperatures on Saturday. Highs are forecasted to reach the lower 90s with lows in the low 60s. With the steady, humid air pushing in from the south, heat indices are expected to reach the low 90s and continue to build into early next week. On Sunday, the surface high is expected to continue to push east of the CWA which will enhance southerly flow increasing humidity. High temps are expected to reach the mid 90s with heat index values just shy of 100 degrees. Monday is expected to be even warmer with a potential for heat indices to reach degrees. As the heat indices creep up to the upper 90s, expect outside to feel a little more humid. The GFS shows a weak low developing over OK and moving to the north early Monday morning. Depending on the strength of this low it may increase cloud cover and increase rain chances. Tuesday is looking to be a continuation of the warm weather as temperatures and humidity continually build. Highs are forecasted to be in the upper 90s with heat indices potentially around 100 degrees. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a more significant 500MB low is anticipated to move just to the northwest of the CWA. By early Wednesday morning, it will have moved just behind the ridge helping to push the ridge out of the area leaving a more zonal pattern over the CWA. Long-term guidance points to increased rain chances from this system early to mid next week. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1224 AM CDT FRI SEP 1 2023 VFR conditions through the period with southeast winds prevailing. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && Discussion...Collier Aviation...BT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 456 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-011000- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 456 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
17 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe to extreme drought impacted Bates County for the entirety of Sept 2023.
Severe to extreme drought impacted Cass County for the entirety of Sept 2023.
Severe to extreme drought impacted southeastern portions of Jackson County in September 2023.
Severe to extreme drought impacted all of Henry County in September 2023.
Severe to extreme drought impacted all of Johnson County in September 2023.
Severe to extreme drought impacted all of Pettis County in September 2023.
Severe to extreme drought impacted all of Lafayette County in September 2023.
Severe to extreme drought impacted all of Saline County in September 2023.
Severe to extreme drought impacted all of Cooper County in September 2023.
Severe to extreme drought impacted all of Howard County in September 2023.
Severe drought impacted most of Chariton County in September 2023.
Severe drought impacted most of Carroll County in September 2023.
Severe drought impacted portions of Ray County in September 2023.
Severe drought impacted portions of Caldwell County in September 2023.
Severe drought impacted portions of Adair County in September 2023.
Severe to extreme drought impacted all of Schuyler County in September 2023.
Severe drought impacted eastern areas of Putnam County in September 2023.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1229056, 1229057, 1229058, 1229059, 1229060, 1229061, 1229062, 1229063, 1229064, 1229065, 1229066, 1229067, 1229068, 1229069, 1229070, 1229071, 1229072.