A small cluster of storms developed over portions of central Missouri. Some of the storms dumped between 4 and 5 inches of rain causing flash flooding.
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The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
A small cluster of storms developed over portions of central Missouri. Some of the storms dumped between 4 and 5 inches of rain causing flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 24, 4:32 AM CST, 4 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 532 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 The region remains under a mid-level ridge, sandwiched between two troughs along each coast. Through the day the trough along the East Coast will dig southward. In the lower levels moisture will advect northwestward into the forecast area, but will be squashed to the west by dry air moving south with the push of the mid-level trough. This will result in growing instability during the day being largely confined to western and central Missouri. HREF mean SBCAPE peaks around 1000 J/kg mainly across central Missouri and diminishing to the east. A combination of low-level omega and surface instability will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day, and similar to yesterday will not be severe or last long thanks to very weak 0-6 km shear. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish mid- evening, leaving the forecast dry for quite some time. Temperatures on Wednesday will push into the mid to upper 80s across the area under another day of nearly uninterrupted insolation. The mid-level trough will continue to dig into the eastern third of the country overnight Wednesday into Thursday, and a shortwave will pass down the western side of the trough through the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will push southwestward through the forecast area, bringing cooler, dry air into the forecast area. The front will move through the region during the day, causing a wide range of temperatures across the forecast area. Most of the forecast area will be in the mid to upper 70s, near normal, while central and southeast Missouri will remain seasonally warm with temperatures in the low 80s. MRM .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 A surface high will push into the Great Lake's region behind the cold front, effectively cutting the region off from substantial moisture and keeping the forecast dry through Sunday. Thursday's shortwave will strengthen and become a cut off low over the Ohio River Valley, and coupled with the mid-level ridging over the central CONUS, will quickly develop into a rex block by Friday. The rex block is expected to continue through most of the weekend, beginning to break down by Monday as the mid-level cut off low tracks east into the Southeast US. At this point 22% of ensemble model guidance indicates moisture return from over the Appalachians Monday, and brings our next best chance for rain. This chance for precipitation is not a slam dunk, and there's a larger percentage of guidance that keeps the region dry through the entire holiday weekend. By the end of the forecast period a mid-level ridge will build back into the central CONUS, although there is some uncertainty in how broad the ridge will be. Temperatures on Friday will be the coolest of the period in the wake of the backdoor cold front, peaking in the 70s across the forecast area. Solar insolation over the weekend will help to warm temperatures back into the 80s. This will kick off a warming trend and continue through the end of the period. Confidence is high in the warming trend, but exact values are still uncertain and the interquartile spread in maximum temperatures is 6-8 degrees Sunday and beyond. MRM && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 529 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 VFR flight conditions will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. Any fog that's lingering at KJEF, KSUS, or KCPS will dissipate quickly within the first hour or so of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across central Missouri today, but confidence is low in the location of individual storms so have left mention out of the central Missouri (KJEF, KCOU) TAFs for now. Winds will start the period from the east, becoming northeasterly overnight. MRM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 87 60 79 53 / 5 0 0 0 Quincy 84 54 75 48 / 5 5 0 0 Columbia 84 57 81 51 / 40 10 5 0 Jefferson City 86 58 83 52 / 40 10 5 0 Salem 85 56 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Farmington 84 57 79 48 / 10 0 0 0 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service St Louis MO 245 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-250745- Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL- Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL- Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO- Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO- Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO- Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO- Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO- 245 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a chance for thunderstorms across parts of northeast, southeast, and central Missouri today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The chance for thunderstorms returns to parts of the area next Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MRM
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:02 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Between 4 and 5 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time causing flash flooding across portions of southern Montgomery County. Approximately two feet of water was over Highway K from Dry Fork Creek, about two miles west northwest of Big Spring.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1105775.