An isolated severe thunderstorm cell moved southward across the Ozark foothills during the late evening hours. Strong winds brought down tree limbs in the path of the storm.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
An isolated severe thunderstorm cell moved southward across the Ozark foothills during the late evening hours. Strong winds brought down tree limbs in the path of the storm. The storm occurred near a weak stationary front that extended from the Ozark Mountains east to western Kentucky.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 5:28 PM CST, 3 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 A warm front will move northeast across the FA through this evening with more humid conditions. Dewpoints near 70 degrees are already being observed across portions of SEMO where isolated pcpn is possible through the rest of today. As a 500 mb impulse approaches this evening, some of the 12z CAMs including the HRRR show isolated convection developing along a boundary mainly across SEMO by 06-07Z. Given MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg and steeper mid-level lapses rates of 6.0 to 6.5 C/km due to an increase in forcing for ascent, an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out overnight with gusty winds and some hail where SPC has a marginal risk in their D1 outlook. The main concern then becomes Saturday as an influx in theta-e occurs behind the aformentioned warm front causing dewpoints to surge into the low to mid 70s. By midday, a 500 mb shortwave will approach the FA with synoptic scale forcing, causing pcpn chances to ramp up along the Mississippi River. One forecast question that remains is how widespread will morning convection be across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois as this will have implications on instability. Have adjusted NBM PoPs as they remain to high with respect to the 12z CAMs. Overall, convection coverage is likely to shift east and be the greatest during the afternoon and early evening hours across southeast Kentucky and southwest Indiana when peak heating occurs. As for the severe weather potential, SPC's D2 outlook has portions of the CWA outlooked in a slight risk. Model thermal profiles show 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and effective bulk shear around 40 kts which is sufficient for some severe storms. However, this once again will be contingent on morning convection and cloud cover. The greatest hazard of concern will be damaging wind gusts given DCAPE values of 700-900 J/kg and low-level lapse rates of 8.0 to 8.5 C/km. The 12z NAM in particular shows an EML between 600-500 mb which would favor the wind potential if morning convection is limited. Some hail is also possible in the strongest storms given mid-level lapse rates between 6.5 to 7.0 C/km, but the tornado risk is very low due to the lack of low-level shear. With PWAT's between 1.75" to 2.00", locally heavy rainfall is also possible with QPF between 0.50" to 1.00" on average where convection occurs. With that said, a cold front will sweep across the Ohio Valley Saturday night providing quick relief from the humidity as dewpoints return to the lower 60s on Sunday. Given the potential for some radiational cooling Sunday night, bumped down low temps with a blend of the NBM 25th percentile and CONSMOS. As for pcpn chances, although the NBM maintains low chances for PoPs on Sunday, do think most of the FA ends up being mainly dry as even the slower 12z ECMWF is now more progressive with the frontal boundary. If an isolated shower or storm were to develop, the greatest risk for pcpn would be across the Kentucky Pennyrile. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Dry and tranquil conditions are in store for Monday and Tuesday as a weak sfc high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. Unsettled weather and an increase in the heat and humidity is then in store for the remainder of the week as a warm front moves through the FA on Wednesday. A series of 500 mb impulses will then round the corner of a 594 dam ridge parked across the southwest CONUS bringing the risk for daily showers and storms. Due to the increase in humidity, heat indices may near heat advisory criteria across portions of the region by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Rounds of thunderstorms are possible tomorrow morning and again afternoon through evening. A lot will be dependent on the morning convection as to how the afternoon/evening convection sets up. Models indicating the afternoon may be the better bet for storms though and these would stand the better chance of impacting the terminals. Have included PROB30s to indicate the chances for direct impacts to the terminals. Cigs with these storms could go MVFR at times along with visbys. Winds will be fairly light except under storms where winds could be stronger and variable. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-081000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 /449 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A chance of thunderstorms returns this evening mainly across portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible with gusty winds and some hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Thunderstorms are more likely Saturday across the area, particularly Saturday afternoon. There is the risk of severe storms with damaging winds and hail the main concern. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed on Saturday. DW
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 185 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:18 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree limb was down along Highway 60 near Van Buren. Four miles north of Van Buren, several large tree limbs were down.
Lightning set a barn on fire.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1105022, 1105021.