The combined effects of persistent above-normal temperatures and minimal precipitation starting in early July 2023 resulted in mounting drought impacts across portions of much of southern and central Mississippi. S.
Every event with a place to put it; 33 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
The combined effects of persistent above-normal temperatures and minimal precipitation starting in early July 2023 resulted in mounting drought impacts across portions of much of southern and central Mississippi. Through the month of September, D2 (Severe Drought) and D3 (Extreme Drought) conditions, as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor, expanded to affect areas generally from south of a line from Issaquena County to Neshoba County. D4 (Exceptional Drought) conditions developed through southwestern and central portions of the state including the Natchez, McComb, and Jackson areas. Average temperatures for the month in these areas ranged from 2 to 4 degrees F above normal, and several daily temperature records were set. Observed precipitation values ranged from 50 percent of normal to lower than 25 percent of normal. Soil moisture values continued to worsen through the month, with subsoil moisture values between 20 to 30 percent below normal for much of the affected area. This placed a severe stress on pastures for livestock and began to reduce expected yield from row crops. Pine plantations and Christmas tree farms experienced severe losses especially among younger trees. Streamflows on creeks and rivers were reduced.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 11:25 PM CST, 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1225 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 The forecast and forecast reasoning are on track this evening and no significant changes were necessary in this near term update. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Tonight and Tomorrow: Quiet conditions will prevail through tonight as drier air is placed firmly over the area. Overnight will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures ranging from the low 60s to the low 70s. Overnight, moisture will increase as an upper level low begins lifting into the area, and daytime heating will bring chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly Friday afternoon east of I-55. While the air mass wont be as dry on Friday, vegetation will remain very dry and thus a limited fire danger will remain in the HWO for the area. /KP/ Friday night through Next Week... This weekend, an upper level low will continue to hang over the LA/TX state line, bring southerly flow and also some well needed moisture to the region. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout our forecast this weekend, especially areas south of the Interstate 20 corridor. The greater chances for thunderstorms will be near and along the coast according to Showalter index totals. Nonetheless, the lack of sufficient instability will keep our severe chances to a minimal as thunderstorms will still struggle to maintain during the peak heating hours. By Sunday, our low pressure system will begin to maneuver northwestward while a mid-upper level high simultaneously builds off to our east-northeast. This will most of the southerly flow off to our west, keeping our best rain chances to the west of Interstate 55. High temperatures throughout the weekend will be mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Early to mid next week, the low will break down and upper level high will strengthen over the eastern US CONUS, keeping most of the moisture to our west and drying out the region again. Ridging promoted by this high pressure system will also help temperatures increase back into the mid to upper 90s by midweek. /LCP/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Sep 1 2023 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. SHRA/VCTS will be possible this afternoon and even late morning across the eastern portions of the area. GTR/PIB/HBG/MEI are the main sites who will see chances of rain and strms which will result in MVFR conditions for a couple of hours this afternoon before returning to VFR. Winds will be N/NE/E and generally 10 mph or less. /JNE/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 93 72 88 71 / 30 30 60 30 Meridian 89 69 82 69 / 70 50 60 20 Vicksburg 94 71 91 71 / 10 10 50 20 Hattiesburg 92 72 88 72 / 70 60 80 40 Natchez 95 72 92 72 / 20 20 50 30 Greenville 89 69 89 71 / 10 10 30 10 Greenwood 91 71 88 71 / 20 10 30 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && KP/LCP/JNE
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 253 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 012000- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes- Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston- Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper- Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah- Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln- Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 253 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday FIRE WEATHER THREAT...Limited TIMING...Friday Extra caution is advised with open burning due to a combination of dry conditions and low humidity. Please heed any local burn bans. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Wednesday. 52 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *FIRE WEATHER* Extreme...Extreme wildfire conditions are anticipated with strong winds. Open burning should not be attempted and wildfires will spread very rapidly. Fire control will be very difficult, even for experienced fire fighters. Significant...Conditions are expected such that open burning should not be attempted. Any wildfires will spread rapidly. Elevated...Any open burning is discouraged due to increased wind, lower humidity, and recent dry conditions. Remember to heed any local burn bans that are in effect! Limited...Extra caution is advised with open burning due to lower humidity or very dry conditions. Remember to heed any local burn bans that are in effect! ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES... Current Heat Information... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_ExtremeHeat Fire Weather... https://www.weather.gov/jan/fireweather Mississippi Forestry Commission... https://www.mfc.ms.gov/ Fire Weather Outlook... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
33 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Drought conditions in Adams County intensified from D3 (Extreme Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Franklin County intensified from D3 (Extreme Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Jefferson County intensified from D3 (Extreme Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Lincoln County intensified from D3 (Extreme Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Marion County remained at D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Claiborne County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Copiah County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Lawrence County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Jefferson Davis County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Hinds County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Rankin County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Simpson County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Covington County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Warren County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Forrest County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Lamar County intensified from D2 (Severe Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Issaquena County intensified from D1 (Moderate Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Sharkey County intensified from D1 (Moderate Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Yazoo County intensified from D1 (Moderate Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Leake County intensified from D1 (Moderate Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Jones County intensified from D1 (Moderate Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Humphreys County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D2 (Severe Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Holmes County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D2 (Severe Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Attala County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D2 (Severe Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Neshoba County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D2 (Severe Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Newton County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Jasper County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Carroll County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D2 (Severe Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Montgomery County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D2 (Severe Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Grenada County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D2 (Severe Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Smith County intensified from D1 (Moderate Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Scott County intensified from D1 (Moderate Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Madison County intensified from D1 (Moderate Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1146063, 1146064, 1146065, 1146066, 1146067, 1146068, 1146069, 1146070, 1146071, 1146072, 1146073, 1146074, 1146075, 1146076, 1146077, 1146078, 1146079, 1146080, 1146081, 1146082, 1146083, 1146084, 1146085, 1146086, 1146087, 1146088, 1146089, 1146090, 1146091, 1146093, 1146094, 1146095, 1146096.