A cold front sweeping from the northwest came through during the afternoon on April 1st. Out ahead of the front, moderately unstable air paired with the forcing of the front triggered many cells along it.
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The episode as NWS LIX wrote it up.
A cold front sweeping from the northwest came through during the afternoon on April 1st. Out ahead of the front, moderately unstable air paired with the forcing of the front triggered many cells along it. The strongest cell formed along the Mississippi coast where the air was most unstable and overall conditions were most favorable. It was there in Vancleave, MS where quarter-sized hail fell out of that storm as it reached peak intensity before it weakened as the front pushed offshore.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 1, 11:57 AM CST, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Forecast seems pretty on track so far today. Only change was a slight bump up in temperatures in the Florida parishes and southwest Mississippi due to the clouds clearing out. That should lead to more efficient warming throughout the day today. Places along and north of I-12 could see daily maximum temperature records broken. Locations where the clouds clear out will see the best warming today, which at this time looks to be spots that will come close to daily records. (Zeringue) && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Upper low currently over northeast Iowa has produced an abundance of severe weather well to our north over the last 12 hours. The next in a series of shortwaves was moving onto the southern California coast early this morning. The lead cold front was moving into northwest Louisiana early this morning, with a stronger front moving into northwest Arkansas. Locally, temperatures were in the lower and middle 70s at 3 AM CDT, with dew points near 70. Scattered showers were increasing in coverage across northwest portions of our area northwest of McComb and Baton Rouge. No lightning indicated yet, but it certainly can't be entirely ruled out. Main forecast question for the next 36 hours is how far southward the front eventually gets. Upper flow will be primarily zonal along the northern Gulf Coast with upper ridging to our south over the Gulf. The cold front may make it TO the Louisiana coast, but not much further before becoming stationary or washing out as any upper support pulls away from the area. Scattered showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms will continue to shift southeastward this morning, but will likely dissipate by midday. Drying will move into about the northern half of the area, but dew points below 60 degrees might not make it any further than Interstate 10 during the day today. Perhaps a little more progress southward overnight tonight of that line, before it begins to return northward as a warm front later in the day Sunday. The southern California shortwave will race eastward increasing the low level moisture as it approaches late in the day on Sunday. The day should start out mostly sunny, but we'll see clouds increase across the area late in the day. Temperatures the next couple days are going to be tricky, as exactly where the frontal boundary ends up, and the dry air north of the front, will determine how much cooling occurs. 25 to 50 miles off in the location could mean 5-10 degrees difference. Will trend toward the warmer highs, and accept the general guidance trends overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Upper low currently over northeast Iowa has produced an abundance of severe weather well to our north over the last 12 hours. The next in a series of shortwaves was moving onto the southern California coast early this morning. The lead cold front was moving into northwest Louisiana early this morning, with a stronger front moving into northwest Arkansas. Locally, temperatures were in the lower and middle 70s at 3 AM CDT, with dew points near 70. Scattered showers were increasing in coverage across northwest portions of our area northwest of McComb and Baton Rouge. No lightning indicated yet, but it certainly can't be entirely ruled out. Main forecast question for the next 36 hours is how far southward the front eventually gets. Upper flow will be primarily zonal along the northern Gulf Coast with upper ridging to our south over the Gulf. The cold front may make it TO the Louisiana coast, but not much further before becoming stationary or washing out as any upper support pulls away from the area. Scattered showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms will continue to shift southeastward this morning, but will likely dissipate by midday. Drying will move into about the northern half of the area, but dew points below 60 degrees might not make it any further than Interstate 10 during the day today. Perhaps a little more progress southward overnight tonight of that line, before it begins to return northward as a warm front later in the day Sunday. The southern California shortwave will race eastward increasing the low level moisture as it approaches late in the day on Sunday. The day should start out mostly sunny, but we'll see clouds increase across the area late in the day. Temperatures the next couple days are going to be tricky, as exactly where the frontal boundary ends up, and the dry air north of the front, will determine how much cooling occurs. 25 to 50 miles off in the location could mean 5-10 degrees difference. Will trend toward the warmer highs, and accept the general guidance trends overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 As the California shortwave continues to race eastward Sunday and Sunday night, there will be an area of showers and storms accompanying it. To this point, the models have shown quite a bit of north-south spread in the track of this system, with the majority tracking the main area of rain along and north of Interstate 10, with only light precipitation across the local area. There have been a few of the models trending toward a bit more southerly track, and in coordination with our neighbors to the north and east, have increased rain chances for late Sunday night about 20 percent from previous forecasts. Still feel the heavy rain threat will remain north of our area for that particular system. Subsidence behind that system will help things heat up for Monday and Tuesday, with near record highs possible in most areas, with the possible exception of the Mississippi coast, where the cooling effect of the early season water temperatures may cut highs off around 80 degrees. Another strong northern stream system will push a cold front toward the area on Wednesday, with another chance at showers and storms. Beyond that point, significant differences between global model solutions in where the frontal boundary is located have produced a large spread in temperatures and rain chances from late Wednesday onward. With no particularly favored solution at this time, NBM temperatures and PoPs were followed. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Cloud cover associated with a stationary front is continuing to burn off this afternoon as daytime mixing maximizes. Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals through today and into tomorrow morning. Winds will be a little breezy during the day today due to the mixing, but expect that to die down overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 With frontal boundaries in the area for much of the next week or so, pressure gradients shouldn't get too strong. There will be periods where winds may increase into the 15-20 knot range, but shouldn't get much stronger than that. At present, don't see a particular period of emphasis on hazardous conditions, but can't rule out that we may need an advisory at some point during the early to mid part of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 84 51 76 61 / 20 0 10 50 BTR 86 58 82 67 / 20 0 10 30 ASD 86 57 78 65 / 40 0 0 30 MSY 84 63 79 68 / 40 0 10 20 GPT 83 57 74 65 / 30 0 0 30 PQL 85 54 77 62 / 20 0 0 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...JZ MARINE...RW
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
203 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023
MSZ084-085-087-088-012000-
Southern Harrison MS-Northern Jackson MS-Southern Jackson MS-
Northern Harrison MS-
203 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Harrison and
Jackson Counties through 300 PM CDT...
At 203 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hurley, or 11 miles north of Escatawpa, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Ocean Springs, Moss Point, St. Martin, Escatawpa,
Gautier, D'iberville, Wade, Latimer, Big Point, Saucier, Helena, Gulf
Hills, Hurley, Vancleave, Gulf Park Estates, Hickory Hills and Lyman.
This includes the following Interstates...
Interstate 10 in Mississippi between mile markers 35 and 76.
Interstate 110 in Mississippi between mile markers 1 and 4.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3033 8840 3029 8848 3032 8853 3034 8863
3032 8873 3035 8879 3034 8883 3036 8887
3036 8903 3068 8924 3067 8889 3073 8888
3074 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 308DEG 24KT 3065 8849
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MEFFERThe Mobile radar (KMOB), 46 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:49 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Picture of hail in Vancleave estimated to be an inch in size shared by media via social media.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, April 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1096099.