Out of 18 counties in our Minnesota area, 14 had D2 or higher drought conditions for at least a week in September.
Every event with a place to put it; 14 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Out of 18 counties in our Minnesota area, 14 had D2 or higher drought conditions for at least a week in September.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 10:41 PM CST, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1141 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 No further changes were made to grids. Updated aviation discussion below for 06z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1015 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Surface winds have turned southerly all areas and will remain that way overnight as dew point boundary washes out. For the overnight partly cloudy with a few clouds (mostly cirrus, few mid level) move east across the area. Looking upstream at radars from Regina to Winnipeg shows any shower chances now limited to areas well north of the International border so removed pops for tonight in the far north. UPDATE Issued at 707 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Dew point/wind shift boundary well defined by radar from just east of Winnipeg to Pembina to Niagara ND to just east of Jamestown. Dew pts in the 58 to 65 range east of the boundary and 45 to 55 west of boundary. Boundary has been moving east thru Manitoba but not making much progress across ND and boundary may wash out tonight as winds diminish. A few storms forming along the boundary from Pebmina/St Vincent along the border north-northeast to Gimli MB. Adjusted pops a tad as expect isolated storm threat along the Intl border (mainly MN/MB border) this evening. But did keep pops tied closely to the border. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Key Messages: -Decreasing shower activity in north central MN, with skies turning partly cloudy behind it. -Smoke lingers across the area today and into tonight, improving by tomorrow morning. Otherwise, temperatures will be in the 80s today and the upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow afternoon. -Isolated showers are possible along the International Border later this evening and into tonight as the main upper level system moves along the border. -Fire weather concerns arise tomorrow afternoon as winds will be out of the WNW around 15-20kts and Min RH values are in the 20-30% range. Discussion: Satellite imagery shows an upper level system over southern Saskatchewan tracking toward the east along the ND and Canadian border. The southern extent of the system has stronger lower level winds, which increase as we head into the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the main system is a broke line of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms from Lake of the Woods through Hubbard and Wadena counties. Over the last several hours the band of showers has diminished in coverage. They should move out of the eastern forecast area by the mid afternoon hours. In wake of the showers winds will strong out of the south sustained at 25-30mph, with gusts up to 40mph possible on an isolated basis. Low level mixing is rather strong as a LLJ slowly diminishes. Winds will continue to remain breezy through the rest of the late afternoon and evening after the LLJ weakens. Gusts up to 35mph will be possible, but once daytime heating is lost mixing in the lower levels diminishes. As the upper level system moves closer to the region. Pressure gradient at the 700mb level level increases helping to form a LLJ. Weak instability and moisture along the International Border will help bring the chance for isolated showers or a storm in the northern forecast area around sunset through the early morning hours Friday. Short range guidance has the LLJ diminishing by sunrise, but re intensifying as we head into the late morning and early afternoon tomorrow. A LLJ, lapse rates of 8-9 C/km, and dry air will aid in stronger winds in the northern forecast area tomorrow afternoon. Winds have the potential to gust up to 35mph out of the west for the northern forecast area, where the core of the LLJ sets up. Areas in the southern forecast area see lighter winds. Dry air filters in from Canada tomorrow bringing RH values down into the 30 to 30 percent range. This combined with strong winds out of the west bring fire weather concerns for tomorrow afternoon. Area with the highest concern will be NE ND and into NW MN. Further drier air and stronger winds would yield near critical fire weather concerns for tomorrow afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Key Messages: -Warm temperatures over the weekend into early next week, with highs in the 90s for a majority of the region. Warmest day will be Sunday, with a few isolated locations potentially hitting the near 100 mark. Dew points remain on the lower end (50s) helping to ease heat indices. -Resurgence of potential fire weather concerns Saturday through Monday, with Min RH values dropping down near the 25-35% range. -Chance for precipitation Monday into Tuesday, with storms possible. -Pattern change mid week will help to ease the heat across the northern plains. This increases the chances for precipitation as flow turns toward the SW. Discussion: Cluster analysis indicates ridging continuing into the later part of the weekend and into early next week. This increases the 500mb heights across the northern plains, thus temperatures increase. Highs end of the weekend and into early next week hit the upper 80s to lower 90s during the afternoon hours. The northern plains remains on the northern fringe of the ridge bringing zonal flow to the forecast area. This introduces the chances for showers or storms at times from upper level waves moving along the ridge. Monday into Tuesday brings the first of these waves. Probabilities of seeing CAPE reach 1000 J/kg are 40-60% across the southern forecast area Monday into Tuesday. Due to the dry air over the northern plains underneath the ridge, moisture will be hard to pull from the Gulf. None the less chances for precipitation increase Monday into Tuesday. Fire weather concerns arise ahead of the main synoptic system, with a dry airmass in place. Min RH values have the potential to reach down into the 20-30% range both Sunday and Monday. Winds remain rather light around 5-10kts, helping to keep the fire weather concerns lower at this time. However, if we can tighten the pressure gradients aloft; creating a LLJ, winds may increase. This would increase fire weather potential for end of the weekend and into early next week. This is a high end scenario, with probabilities of 20% for occurrence. After Tuesday, flow aloft turns toward the SW increasing potentials for precipitation. Our forecast area remains just to the west of the main synoptic flow helping to ease the temperatures. Highs are expected to drop to near seasonal mid to late next week. Any deviation of the main synoptic flow could influence temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 VFR thru the pd. Scattered cirrus thru the period, with a few patches of mid clouds along the Canadian border into Friday AM. South winds 8 to 15 kts tonight turning more southwest and eventually west as we head thru Friday morning and afternoon. Gusts 20-25 kts DVL-GFK-TVF area Friday afernoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...Spender LONG TERM...Spender AVIATION...Riddle
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 338 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-012045- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 338 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A combination of low RH 20-30 percent and wind gusts up to 30 mph Friday will yield near critical fire weather concerns especially in the northern areas. Further fire weather concerns expected over the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
14 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
East Becker experienced D2 drought from September 1st through September 26th.
East Otter Tail experienced D2 drought from September 1st through September 26th.
Wadena county experienced D2 drought for the entire month of September, with 4 weeks having portions of the county in D3 drought.
Hubbard county experienced D2 drought for the entire month of September, in addition to some portions of the county being in D3 drought the entire month as well.
Southern Beltrami county experienced D2 drought for the entire month of September, in addition to some portions of the county being in D3 drought for 4 weeks out of the month as well.
Northern Beltrami county experienced D2 drought for the entire month of September.
Lake of the Woods county experienced D2 drought for the entire month of September.
Kittson county experienced D2 drought for the entire month of September.
Roseau county experienced D2 drought for the entire month of September.
Eastern Marshall county experienced D2 drought for the entire month of September.
Western Marshall county experienced D2 drought for the entire month of September.
Northern Clearwater county was in D2 drought from September 5th through the end of the month.
Southern Clearwater county was in D2 drought from September 5th through the end of the month.
Pennington county was in D2 drought from September 5th through September 26th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1133218, 1133220, 1133222, 1133223, 1133224, 1133225, 1133226, 1133227, 1133228, 1133229, 1133231, 1133232, 1133233, 1133234.