Thunderstorms in Minnesota lead to some lightning damage in northwestern Minnesota.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Thunderstorms in Minnesota lead to some lightning damage in northwestern Minnesota.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 1:51 PM CST, 3 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 251 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Key Messages: -No impacts today or tonight, with clear and quiet conditions. -Mid-level shortwave brings thunderstorms into the region for Friday, with strong to severe storms possible. Impacts could include hail and damaging wind gusts. Mostly clear skies prevail this afternoon into the evening and overnight period. Look for lows to be slightly warmer than last night, generally in the 50s. Return flow out of the south to southwest is ongoing this afternoon, bringing moisture back into the area as we head into Friday. The primary concern will be the approach and transit of an H7 shortwave pushing southeastward out of Manitoba during the late morning through late afternoon. CAPE ahead of this system is expected to climb into the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range (70-90%). Shear will be heavily dependent upon the location of the front, which will ultimately determine the coverage of potential strong to severe thunderstorms. A couple of different scenarios are possible: 1) A worst case scenario brings our CAPE axis into close proximity to slightly better shear values (25-35 knots), allowing organized clusters to develop. In this scenario, we will have a window for large hail up to 1.5 inches and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. 2) The more likely scenario includes weaker shear values that favor only weakly organized clusters of storms. These storms would be capable of producing hail up to about 1 inch and brief downburst winds to about 60 mph as organization would be minimal. Both cases bring the potential for brief periods of very heavy rain as cell motion vectors are nearly parallel with the theta-e gradient boundary. Timing is focused primarily during the early to mid- afternoon, with the shortwave remaining rather progressive along northwest flow aloft. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 Key Messages: -Northwest H5 flow continues Saturday through Wednesday, with precipitation chances Sunday and several days next week. -Thunderstorms on Sunday could become strong to severe as a frontal passage occurs. Impacts from wind and hail are possible with the strongest storms. Look for sustained northwest flow through the weekend and into next week. Several shortwaves are expected to rotate around a large-scale H5 upper low over the Hudson Bay region. The timing and strength of these shortwaves is uncertain; however, instability will build into the area, allowing at least a mention of strong to severe thunderstorms. The best thunderstorm chances at this time look to be Sunday afternoon, with NBM struggling to temporally resolve the shortwave activity further into the week. Sunday's shortwave brings a chance for strong to severe storms, albeit with a bit of conditionality. SBCAPE is expected to climb into the 1500 to 2500 J/Kg range (50-70% chance), with deep layer (0- 6 Km) shear generally in the range of 30 to 40 knots. Model soundings show favorable directional shear for a period of time during the mid to late afternoon. This will ultimately depend upon the timing of the shortwave; however, there is increasing confidence between the individual members of the GEFS and clusters of solutions are beginning to take shape. As for potential impacts, a worse-case scenario allows supercells to form, with hail, damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes all possible. If these supercells form, upscale progression would be rather quick, with linear mode impacts, mainly damaging wind gusts, following thereafter. Heading into Monday, a post-frontal environment translates to stable and generally quiet weather with seasonal temperatures and sustained northwest flow aloft. Tuesday through Thursday: Guidance continues to develop shortwaves that travel southeastward into the Northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday. Looking into GEFS members, shortwave timing looks to be clustering around late Tuesday afternoon thorugh Wednesday morning, then once more late Wednesday into Thursday. CAPE increases ahead of each shortwave, with a large degree of variability between ensemble members and deterministic models. At this time, the predictability of severe thunderstorms is low; however, pattern support is existent, so we will need to watch this further as time progresses. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 VFR conditions prevail across the period at all TAF sites. Look for a gradual wind shift during the overnight hours, with prevailing winds turning more southerly at KFAR and KGFK. For KDVL, winds turn more northerly as a weak shortwave passes through the area during the early morning. Skies are expected to remain clear to partly cloudy, with ceilings generally greater than 9000 feet. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && SHORT TERM...Lynch LONG TERM...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 553 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-024-026>030-038- 039-049-052-053-071100- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina- Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes- Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- 553 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region during the day Friday. The main impacts will be gusty winds up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters, in addition to frequent lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. NDZ006-007-014-015-054-071100- Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Western Walsh- 553 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. CJ
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 107 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:12 UTC.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Mayor of Thief River Falls, MN reports a tree in his backyard took a direct strike from lightning. Still standing but damaged. No fatalities or injuries.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1114595.