Drought continued from July in NW MN. It worsened to D3 by mid August, with the D3 area covering 2 counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Drought continued from July in NW MN. It worsened to D3 by mid August, with the D3 area covering 2 counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 28, 9:38 PM CST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1038 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Temperatures remain on track this evening with most locations now in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Look for light and variable winds overnight, with the potential for smoke and haze working down toward the surface in some areas. UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Winds are diminishing this evening with overall quiet weather being observed. A few sites are reporting haze and smoke, primarily within the norther Red River Valley. Temperatures are in the middle 70s to low 80s at this time, with the forecast remaining on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 -A few showers possible in Lake of Woods area late tonight. -Smoke aloft today, could possibly get down to the surface tomorrow. Northwest flow continues across the region, with a weak embedded shortwave digging down from Canada into MN tonight. While the best forcing will be to our northeast, many of the CAMs have some shower activity into the Lake of the Woods region late tonight into tomorrow morning. There is some less than 500 J/kg of MU CAPE possible, so some lightning is not out of the question but think severe is unlikely. The shortwave digging down should help push a weak backdoor cold front into the region tomorrow, with winds again picking up from the north and temps staying in the upper 70s to low 80s. There has been a fair amount of smoke aloft for much of the day today, although satellite loop shows some thinning in our northern counties. There is the possibility of the weak front helping bring some smoke down to the surface late tonight into tomorrow. The HRRR and RAP both have some decent concentrations of near surface smoke in their model runs. Thus, included a mention of patchy smoke in the grids tonight into tomorrow. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridging moves east, with a fairly strong upper low moving into the Northern Rockies. That system will lift northeastward into Saskatchewan for Thursday, with much of the upper support to our north. However, it does look like there will be a surface trough and some warm air advection coming out into the Red River Valley. The strong system moving through Canada should crank up winds late Wednesday into Thursday, although not quite up to 30 kts that the NBM gives us so toned that down a bit. The breezy southerly winds should be enough help dew points recover back into the upper 50s to low 60s after the cool frontal passage early in the week. NBM probabilities around only around 44 percent for CAPE values above 1000 J/kg Thursday, which isn't terribly impressive. However, with forcing and at least some instability, this time period will be the best shot for convection. Friday through Sunday...The upper low in Canada pulls off to the east with ridging building back over the midwest. R climate percentiles and ECMWF extreme forecast index show a pretty good signal for heat for the first part of the holiday weekend, although the epicenter will be to our south. The probabilities for getting above 90 degrees are around 40 percent for Saturday and up around 60 percent for Sunday. Trends have been a bit on the high side with the blend this summer, so did tone it down a few degrees but should still be well above seasonal highs for this weekend. Monday...Southwesterly flow aloft sets up as the upper system departs, and should be a bit more active with many ensemble members bringing a shortwave out into the Plains. Above average temps and some 20 percent probabilities for precip seem reasonable with this general pattern, with details not yet resolvable. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 VFR conditions prevail through the period at all sites. Light and variable winds are expected through the overnight hours before increasing out of the northwest, then north through Tuesday morning. As winds shift northward, smoke is expected to work back into the area, with minimal mixing to the surface. Some guidance is bringing a stratus deck into the area around 14Z, mainly north of KGFK and KDVL. Confidence is somewhat low regarding potential impacts on ceilings, but if this develops, MVFR conditions would be possible starting around mid morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...Lynch SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR AVIATION...Lynch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 502 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-291015- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 502 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D2 drought began in Eastern Marshall county on August 29th. It continued into the end of the month.
D2 drought began in Western Marshall county on August 29th. It continued into the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1119026, 1119027.