A line of thunderstorms moved through the region during the late evening of August 10, 2023. These storms generally produced wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, but a few locally higher gusts were observed, as well as some tree and powerline damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MPX wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms moved through the region during the late evening of August 10, 2023. These storms generally produced wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, but a few locally higher gusts were observed, as well as some tree and powerline damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 10, 6:29 PM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 729 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Thunderstorms likely tonight. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind possible from western Minnesota into the Twin Cities metro/ - Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind & large hail possible Friday afternoon across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. A decaying band of showers continues to move eastwards across Minnesota into western Wisconsin this afternoon, generated by weak ascent aloft by an increasing low-level jet. To the west of this band of clouds/showers, clear skies & increasing dew points will allow for an unstable atmosphere to develop by late afternoon across the eastern Dakotas & western Minnesota with surface-based CAPE values near 3000 J/kg. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by this evening across the Dakotas where the surface forcing is strongest, with these thunderstorms expected to quickly merge into a line of thunderstorms. This line of storms is expected to enter western Minnesota around 8-9 PM, reach the Twin Cities metro around midnight, & then continue across Wisconsin through the overnight hours. The potential for damaging wind gusts with these storms is most likely across western Minnesota, but they are expected to weaken as they move farther east into Minnesota & into an environment with decreasing instability. Thus, the threat for damaging winds is lower across eastern Minnesota & the Twin Cities metro tonight compared to western & central MN, but certainly can not be ruled out if the line of storms is able to maintain its intensity. Rainfall with the storms will likely be heavy, especially across western MN, but the amounts will be limited by the relatively fast storm motions. Areas of western Minnesota where the storms are strongest could see amounts around 1-1.5", while amounts taper down more to 0.1-0.25" across western Wisconsin & eastern Minnesota when the storms will likely have dissipated. ANy lingering rain will be east of the area by shortly after sunrise, with residual cloud cover expected to clear out through the morning. This will allow the atmosphere to destabilize by the afternoon, with 1000-2000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE developing across MN & western WI. Deep shear values will also be seasonally strong as a jetstreak aloft & surface low pass over the region, providing plenty of kinematic support for organized strong to severe thunderstorms. The deep shear vectors are largely unidirectional through the atmosphere but still oriented perpendicular to the surface forcing boundary, meaning that storms will remain fairly discrete & a few could become supercells, but they likely will not exhibit a lot of low- level rotation. Hi- resolution models generally depict a few well-defined & intense updraft helicity tracks when looking in the mid-levels (2-5 km), but little or nothing when looking in the low levels (0-2 km). This supports the general idea that large hail (potentially golf ball sized or larger) & a few damaging wind gusts are the primary threats with the strongest storms, while the chance for tornadoes looks low owing to the weak low-level shear/helicity & very high LCL heights (cloud bases). The most-likely area for storms to develop tomorrow afternoon still depends on how fast skies clear out tomorrow morning & where the surface boundary will be by mid to late- afternoon when instability will be highest for storms to initiate. This generally appears to be across the eastern half of Minnesota (east of a line stretching through Mankato & St. Cloud) with storms developing by 3-4 PM. Thunderstorms will continue into western Wisconsin during the evening, with thunderstorms mostly east of the area by 9-10 PM. Brief heavy downpours will accompany any thunderstorms, but precipitation amounts will be localized & likely not more than 0.5-1.00". Saturday's weather looks quiet but ensemble & deterministic guidance continues to highlight a good chance for widespread rain Sunday into Monday, as a strong shortwave deepens into an upper-level low over the region. The threat for heavy rain does not appear likely at this time but the NBM does indicate a 30-50% chance for >1" of rain over the area, meaning there is a good chance that most see locations see at least some beneficial rainfall Sunday into Monday. Beyond Monday, temperatures look to be generally cooler than normal as lower heights aloft persist into next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Still expecting a complex of thunderstorms to move into western MN from activity currently developing over the eastern Dakotas, then continue eastward through this evening into the early morning hours, impacting central-eastern MN into western WI. Most short-term models have the convection impacting all terminals so have included TEMPO groups of IFR-visibility and MVFR-ceiling conditions for TSRA at all sites, along with strong winds indicative of the potential for the storms to possibly be strong-severe. Some MVFR ceilings are then possible thru the remainder of the pre-dawn hours. Another round of precipitation looks likely Friday afternoon. Have included additional TEMPO groups to account for that timing but have held off the mention of TS/CB at this point to await better clarification on model projection. KMSP...VFR to start but will look for thunderstorms to impact the terminal in the 04z-08z timeframe. That's not to say that there will be a solid 4hrs of TSRA but that the window is a 4hr window, during which time the storms will move through but still some uncertainty should additional mesoscale/microscale development occur in front of or behind the main line. The activity will be to the east of MSP by the early morning hours, with a break from precipitation until Friday afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. Sun...VFR/MVFR, with -TSRA/SHRA likely. Wind S 5-10kts becoming W 15-20kts. Mon...VFR. Wind NW 15-25kt with higher gusts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && UPDATE...JPC DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...JPC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 249 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028- 112000- Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns- Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington- Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota- Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth- Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk- St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire- 249 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to move into western Minnesota around 6 to 7 PM, move eastward overnight, and weaken as they approach Wisconsin. A few severe storms are possible, the main threat is damaging wind. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Friday afternoon/evening, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will redevelop, with higher chances north of I-94 and east of I-35. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. There is another chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening, severe weather could be possible, but there is more uncertainty with this event. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed. jrb
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
909 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
MNZ054-064-110245-
Yellow Medicine MN-Lac Qui Parle MN-
909 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Lac
qui Parle and southwestern Yellow Medicine Counties through 945 PM
CDT...
At 908 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Canby, or 16 miles east of Clear Lake, moving east at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Porter around 920 PM CDT.
This includes U.S. Highway 75 near mile marker 95.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
west central Minnesota.
&&
LAT...LON 4479 9645 4484 9593 4463 9587 4463 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 258DEG 45KT 4466 9635
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
TDHPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
913 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0833 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NE Appleton 45.22N 96.00W
08/10/2023 M30 MPH Swift MN AWOS
AWOS station KAQP Appleton AP.
&&
TDHPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
927 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0910 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 S Canby 44.67N 96.28W
08/10/2023 M51 MPH Yellow Medicine MN Mesonet
Mesonet station MN158 U.s.75 - Canby - Mp
84.0.
&&
TDHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
930 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
MNZ056-057-065-110300-
Chippewa MN-Kandiyohi MN-Renville MN-
930 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Chippewa, Kandiyohi and northwestern Renville Counties through 1000
PM CDT...
At 930 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Kerkhoven to 5 miles
southeast of Maynard. Movement was east at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Raymond around 935 PM CDT.
Willmar and Prinsburg around 940 PM CDT.
New London around 950 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Atwater.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 64 and 88.
U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 103 and 131.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central and west central Minnesota.
&&
LAT...LON 4515 9528 4516 9525 4521 9525 4524 9476
4482 9475 4482 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 260DEG 45KT 4511 9527 4487 9536
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TDHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
933 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
MNZ064-065-073-110315-
Yellow Medicine MN-Renville MN-Redwood MN-
933 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Redwood, east central Yellow Medicine and central Renville Counties
through 1015 PM CDT...
At 933 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sacred Heart, or 20 miles northwest of Redwood Falls, moving east at
50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Renville around 950 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Olivia and Bird
Island.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 53 and 87.
U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 83 and 102.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central, southwestern and west central Minnesota.
&&
LAT...LON 4477 9550 4477 9549 4483 9547 4483 9478
4453 9480 4463 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 270DEG 43KT 4472 9544
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TDHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
MNZ057>059-065-066-110345-
McLeod MN-Kandiyohi MN-Renville MN-Meeker MN-Wright MN-
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Wright,
southern Meeker, northwestern McLeod, southeastern Kandiyohi and
northeastern Renville Counties through 1045 PM CDT...
At 1000 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cosmos, or 16 miles southeast of Willmar, moving east at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Cosmos around 1005 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Hutchinson, Cokato
and Silver Lake.
This includes U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 82 and 121.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central Minnesota.
&&
LAT...LON 4482 9491 4518 9488 4513 9413 4481 9414
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 270DEG 41KT 4498 9479
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TDHThe Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:01 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees and power lines were down north of Spicer.
A report of a tree down in the city of New Ulm was related by dispatch. The New Ulm airport west of town had a measured wind gust of 56 mph.
A tree was down on a highway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1134187, 1134200, 1134202.