Hail in Nebraska, August 10, 2023

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
230 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Key Messages:

* Small chance, and seemingly decreasing, for an isolated
  thunderstorm this evening.

* Somewhat warmer Friday/Saturday and dry conditions.

* Stronger upper level wave will dive through the area Sunday,
  bringing a shot for thunderstorms, and then followed by a longer
  period of drier weather next week.

Low pressure in South Dakota has a trailing front/trough moving
through the western Nebraska sandhills. Ahead of the trough
south/southwest winds are mixing out the boundary layer over
the southern sections of the forecast area. Temperatures are
seasonally warm as some mid/high clouds drift across the area
ahead of the trough.

Tonight, the trough will slowly work east across the area
but will takes its times. Models have trended back from even
isolated thunderstorm development along the trough as low
level convergence is limited and capping hard to break. There
are few signs, if any, of convective development at this time.
There isn't a whole of upper support in the next few hours either
to help develop storms. For these reasons, I have lowered
precipitation chances to the 15-20% range, and limited areal
coverage to western/northern areas overall. Not a zero chance but
its sure looks sparse for any storms this evening.

Friday and Saturday...the weather looks very summer-like. Dry
in the absence of any obvious storm trigger, or at least a
situation that warrants any additions of precipitation chances.
Highs will climb back into the 90s Friday and around 90 Sunday.

The next significant weather system will move across the area
Sunday in the form of an upper level wave and cold front. With
front passing, there is good agreement for precipitation ahead
of and along, and thus higher precipitation chances are in the
forecast Sunday...as high as 60 percent in some areas. Not a
guarantee, but clearly the best shot at precipitation in the
7-day forecast.

That segway leads us to a dry forecast next week as this strong
wave really cleans things out, including looking at comfortable
dewpoints in the 50s Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will drop
back and gradually climate during the week, but still be quite
seasonal even when it does warm up.

Ensembles past 7 days still suggest rising heights and warming
temperatures, or at least above normal, settling into the area
around August 19th/20th and lasting several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

VFR conditions are forecast through period with passing high
clouds and no visibility restrictions. A windshift will slide
through later this evening shifting winds to the west/northwest
but weak enough, winds could be largely variable. Can't say
there won't be an isolated storm in the nearby area, but chances
are less than 15% at either locations.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
250 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
111200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
250 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A weak front moving across the area this evening and early
overnight may spark a renegade thunderstorm or two, mainly
over south central Nebraska.

To be frank, the chance of a thunderstorm is very small, and
areal coverage would be sparse at best, but if a storm does
develop, it could be strong to severe. Hail to the size of half
dollars and wind gusts of 60 mph be would be possible. Any
thunderstorm development would mostly likely occur between 5 PM
and 11 PM. The storms would move to the east southeast in
direction.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

On Friday afternoon, heat index values along and near the Kansas
border, and across north central Kansas, will be around 100
degrees at times.

The next chance for thunderstorms is Saturday night through Sunday
evening. Thunderstorms are possible along the the front as it
passes, and while strong or severe storms may occur, it is too
early to pin down any specific hazards, timing and location
information at this point.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail or any size and damaging
wind gusts to the National Weather Service in Hastings.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings