The spring snowmelt flooding began in late April 2023 and persisted into the early portions of May for some locations.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
The spring snowmelt flooding began in late April 2023 and persisted into the early portions of May for some locations.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 14, 10:52 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1152 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Observations indicate fog as well with the drizzle Fosston area with fog into Detroit Lakes but exiting Thief River Falls. Did include patchy fog in the zone from TVF to DTL and PKD til 11z. UPDATE Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Did make a few changes. Some light rain is trying to move into southern ND west of Ellendale. Short term models have had this drying up as it moves NNE but echo returns from KABR radar suggests chance for -ra yet as it moves in. Also noticed some vsby reductions from Thief River Falls to Fosston and Detroit Lakes. Webcams around Fosston and Brooks MN show what is likely some fine drizzle. So did include some very light precip in that zone for a couple hours. That area too has held onto very low ceilings this evening. UPDATE Issued at 724 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Updated pops into Saturday. For this evening it looks dry with radar showing area of rain showers and t-storms moving northeast toward St Cloud and the Twin Cities bypassing our far southeast fcst area. Same after midnight as precipitation should remain to our east. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Key Messages: -Light rain diminishes across northwestern Minnesota this afternoon. -Most areas drop near to below freezing tonight, with minimal recovery into the 30s to 40s for daytime highs on Saturday. Discussion... Light rain will continue along the axis of midlevel frontogenesis, generally draped across northwestern Minnesota, through the remainder of the afternoon. As the 700 hPa trough moves eastward, attendant ascent for lift will diminish across the region. There will be a secondary chance for light precipitation across southeastern North Dakota into adjacent portions of west central Minnesota as well. This will be the result of the upper trough lifting east-northeastward out of the area into Saturday. The likely result will be some scattered rain and possibly snow showers across the aforementioned region. Resultant accumulations will remain light, generally around a tenth of an inch or less, with only a dusting of snowfall at most anticipated. Otherwise, with winds becoming sustained and gusty out of the north- northwest, some modest cold air advection will work into the forecast area. This will lead to overnight low temperatures near to below freezing for most by Saturday morning. Increasing winds into Saturday will continue to filter cooler air to the region and as a result, high temperatures on Saturday will be well below normal. Highs in the 30s across eastern North Dakota and the 40s across the forested areas of Minnesota are anticipated. Temperatures moving into Saturday night look to continue their downward slide. This will be the result of continued northwesterly winds ushering in cooler air, as well as anticipated clearing from west to east moving into the overnight hours. Resultant low temperatures in the the 20s are expected. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Key Messages: -Precipitation chances return to the region early to mid next week. -Temperatures return to near normal early to mid week, before cooling off again across the latter half of next week. Discussion... After a brief reprieve from the end of the weekend into early next week, active weather is expected to return to the region by mid next week. Cluster analysis favors a transient shift toward ridging aloft as the upper trough currently impacting the region continues its eastward progression. This will result in a period of quieter weather from Sunday through Monday, with temperatures on a gradual warming trend. Despite this, Sunday in particular will see gusty winds across the region as the surface low moves eastward and deepens over the Great Lakes. With no precipitation anticipated on Sunday, impacts from the gusty winds will be minimal, but may still reach near advisory criteria. As quickly as this ridging aloft builds in however, another upper trough is progged to build in over the Pacific Northwest and usher in southwesterly flow aloft across the Plains moving into the day on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain stagnant, if not on a continued warming trend into the middle of next week. Overall, the shift to southwesterly flow aloft will allow for periodic shortwave progressions into the region. As a result, precipitation chances look to be on the rise through the middle of the week, potentially into the late week period. While more subtle waves may move through this flow pattern and introduce brief periods of precipitation, the primary opportunity for precipitation will occur as the upper trough begins to move eastward into the Plains. Unfortunately, a high spread in potential outcomes remains with this system. Cluster analysis indicates that the upper trough will move through the flow pattern and into the Plains in some capacity Wednesday into Thursday. The main discrepancies at this time are in regards to the strength and attendant location of the ejecting trough. As a result, high uncertainty in the location and intensity of impacts remains. Regardless, there is a 30-40% chance of 24-hour QPF exceeding 0.25", with a 15-30% chance of exceeding 0.5". Precipitation type and winds will also bear monitoring. Some ensemble guidance is indicating the potential for snow as this system wraps up as well, which, along with increasing winds as the surface low develops, could lead to adverse wintry conditions within any areas of falling snow. Temperatures do look to remain near to above freezing, even into the overnight hours though, which would work to limit accumulations and the blowability of any snow that would accumulate. Regardless of impacts, there is increasing confidence in a messy mid-Spring system impacting the Plains in some capacity, with the location of attendant impacts still highly && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 IFR to MVFR ceilings expected through Saturday evening. IFR more likely TVF/BJI and MVFR in E ND/RRV. North-northwest winds 10-15 kts thru 15z Sat increasing with gusts 15-25 kts in E ND/RRV Sat aftn. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Snowmelt continues across the Red River basin, with meltwater slower to reach the river system in spots. Overall, river responses will become more widespread in the coming days, even with temperatures trending toward normal to below normal through early next week as snowpack temperatures are nearing freezing across much of the basin. The rate of rise and ultimate crest remains uncertain due to forecast temperatures, ongoing snowmelt runoff, and additional precipitation chances expected toward the middle of next week. Overland flooding has begun across much of the area, with reports coming in across the southeastern ND portion of the valley in addition to previous reports in MN. Therefore additional areal flood warnings issued today to account for an increase in overland flooding across the southern end of the basin, with reports in today across the far northern end of the valley as well. Satellite imagery continues to indicate a driver to overland flooding appears to be the waters inability to move into the rivers, tributaries, and ditches due to lingering snowpack and ice downstream/relief of overland water especially in southern portions of the basin. River forecasts were updated today with additional updates to the South Branch Buffalo River at Sabin MN and Wild Rice River at Twin Valley MN due to observed river levels exceeding previous forecast traces, and likely expected to crest above previous crest height forecasts. The ice jams noted on high resolution satellite imagery previously from Sentinel-2 on April 12 revealed ice jamming at upstream locations along both rivers and tributaries, as well as ice/snow damming just ahead of overland water nearing these rivers/tributaries. Anticipate river/channel ice and overland water issues to complicate river forecasts mainly within the tributaries at least through the next few days, and probably into next week. This lowers confidence in current and future river forecasts some. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...Rick LONG TERM...Rick AVIATION...Riddle HYDROLOGY...MJB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-152015- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A chance for isolated rain or snow showers will be possible across southeastern North Dakota into west central Minnesota, potentially leading to quicker snowmelt and runoff in areas where snow remains. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday The snowmelt will continue, with daytime highs above freezing each day. Nighttime lows look to be a little more variable, but fall below freezing starting this weekend. River flood warnings have been issued for select locations within the southern Red River Basin. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information on specific locations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Wahpeton - First crest of 12.29 ft occurred on 4/15, with a secondary crest of 12.51 ft occurring on 4/19.
Fargo - Crest of 29.76 ft occurred on 4/22.
Halstad - Crest of 34.44 ft occurred on 4/23.
East Grand Forks - Crest of 40.83 ft occurred on 4/24.
Oslo - Crest of 36.27 feet occurred on 4/24.
Drayton - Crest of 40.38 ft occurred on 5/1 (Noted in May 2023 storm data).
Pembina - Crest of 46.68 ft occurred on 5/4 (Noted in May 2023 storm data).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, April 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1096775, 1096777, 1096778, 1096784, 1096787, 1096788, 1096789.