With a stalled front along the Ohio River just to our west, and strong SW flow in place, this set the stage for some near-record temperatures on January 12 across eastern Kentucky. It also set the stage for showers and thunderstorms to develop, with a decent influx of moisture into the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
With a stalled front along the Ohio River just to our west, and strong SW flow in place, this set the stage for some near-record temperatures on January 12 across eastern Kentucky. It also set the stage for showers and thunderstorms to develop, with a decent influx of moisture into the region. A line of showers and thunderstorms pushed into the eastern portion of the state by mid-morning. While the initial thought of the forecaster that morning was that some of these cells could be spinning and potentially tornadic, there was also concerns that some cells could become more linear with QLCS characteristics - and strong wind. Multiple storms were strong enough to warrant severe thunderstorm warnings as they moved through, with severe winds being the primary threat and a tornado possible tag given the decent low level wind shear in place. A tornado warning was also issued. Thankfully no tornadoes transpired, and only several reports of trees down were made in Powell and Wolfe Counties as a severe storm moved through this location.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 12, 9:20 AM EST, 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 920 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 920 AM EST THU JAN 12 2023 QLCS with multiple line segments is now approaching the CWA from central Kentucky. Ahead of this line, mesoanalysis shows tongue of 500+J/kg MLCAPE is trying to advect northward between the Appalachians and the advancing thunderstorm line. The 40 knot 0-to-3 km shear vector is southwesterly, thus any line segments that become more north-south or especially northwest-southeast oriented will be favored for generating straightline wind gusts and potential QLCS tornado generation. In general, dew points are richest along and west of I-75 in the Lake Cumberland area, but the kinematic forcing is stronger further north closer to the I-64 corridor. Both areas will be most favored for strong to severe winds and a chance for QLCS tornadogenesis. Over the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields, the dew points lower significantly with eastward extent, indicative of much lower instability. After the storms reach the Escarpment, they will begin to ingest the significantly poorer air mass. Even so, strong shear will likely sustain the storms for longer than what is typical given the increasingly poor instability environment over the Kentucky Coalfields. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday evening) Issued at 603 AM EST THU JAN 12 2023 At 10z, mostly cloudy skies predominate over eastern Kentucky while just a few showers are brushing the Bluegrass. Temperatures are quite mild, generally in the middle 50s to near 60 except for a few mid to upper 40s in the most sheltered Coalfield Valleys. The warm and quiet weather won't last though as regional radar shows a robust complex of thunderstorms lifting into the Lower Ohio Valley while additional lines of thunderstorms trail back along the Mississippi River. This activity attends a rapidly deepening low pressure system which will ride along the Ohio River today, cross the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and shift into New England on Friday. This will sweep a strong cold front across eastern Kentucky later today. The low's attendant upper level troughs, presently over the Southern Plains and Upper Great Lakes, will phase leading to a rapidly amplifying trough which closes off over the Central Appalachians by late Friday evening. This atypical upper level low track will cause flow to become northerly enough for a robust moisture fetch off of the Great Lakes behind the departing system on Friday and into the first period of the extended. Starting with today, all eyes will be focused on the cluster of thunderstorms lifting along the Ohio River at the present time. These storms will ride northeast along a warm frontal boundary near the Ohio River through the morning hours. Veering flow near the boundary will help to maximize favorably curving hodographs near and north of I-64 Corridor. Effective shear values exceeding 50 knots along with 200m2s^-2 of effective helicity will be quite favorable for rotating updrafts but there will be little surface-based instability. The southern edge of these storms will also be riding the cyclonic side of the 850 mb jet, a preferential location for tornadic storms. Even with the minimal instability, these storms will need to be closely monitored for stronger rotating convective elements as they pass across the Bluegrass/I-64 counties through the morning. Perhaps a more likely concern will is that any rotating storms will have access to 750 to 1,250 J/kg of MUCAPE, a sufficient amount of which will reside in the -10 C to -30 C hail growth layer for severe hail. This threat has already been made manifest by the multiple reports of large hail over the Lower Ohio Valley earlier this morning. Across the remainder of the forecast area, focus will need to be given to possible QLCS formation over the Tennessee/Cumberland valleys along a pre-frontal trough later this morning and afternoon. Any segments that become more perpendicularly aligned to the 0-3km shear vector will be favored to produce severe winds. Additional convection will likely develop later this afternoon behind the QLCS and along/ahead of the cold front but sufficient instability for stronger convection is uncertain due to earlier rainfall/cloud cover and stabilization. As the front shifts eastward, colder air will gradually filter into the region tonight and tomorrow. Wraparound rain showers will continue through the night as temperatures fall to near freezing over the higher ridges of the Escarpment and Virginia/Kentucky border mountains by the wee morning hours. This will cause the rain to change over to all snow in these locations first and then across the remainder of the area by or shortly after sunrise on Friday. As the 850 mb air mass cools further, the moisture fetch over the Upper Great Lakes, particularly Lake Michigan, will increase through the day keeping snow showers going. Air temperatures below 1,500 feet will hold near to just above freezing through most of the day on Friday, which combined with warm ground temperatures, should be prohibitive to much accumulation aside from grassy and elevated surfaces. After sunset, temperatures dip below freezing and that should be more favorable for light accumulations at most locations Friday evening into Friday night. Anticipate most locations will pick up a dusting to an inch, though locally higher amounts are possible under any more persistent lake-enhanced streamers. At those elevations above 1,500 feet, primarily south of KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway, temperatures will continue falling below freezing on Friday while low-level upslope flow becomes nearly ideally oriented orthogonal to the terrain. This will sustain heavier and more persistent snow showers through the day on Friday with intensities likely peaking Friday evening when access to the lower half of DGZ will be maximized. Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are likely over the higher terrain and amounts nearing 6 inches cannot be ruled out over the highest portions of Black Mountain. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for our highest elevation counties where impactful snowfall is most certain. The Advisory may need to be expanded to include counties where lake-enhanced streamer bands become most persistent (once that is known). .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 442 AM EST THU JAN 12 2023 Upslope cold air advection with steep low level lapse rates will be present at the start of the period, with a high amplitude upper level trough axis and a moisture pool beneath it over the central Appalachians and lower Great Lakes. This will result in ongoing snow showers. A plume off of Lake Michigan may also enhance the moisture in portions of eastern KY, but exactly where it lines up is still uncertain. Accumulating snow will extend from the short term period into the long term. The rugged/higher elevation counties of southeast KY will be the most favored for meaningful accumulations. The snow will be winding down on Friday night as the trough axis moves east and cold air advection eases. Surface high pressure builds east over the region on Saturday, with upper level ridging also approaching from the west, resulting in clearing skies. Light winds, clear skies, and a chilly, dry air mass will set us up for a cold night, with valleys expecting temperatures in the teens on Sunday morning. However, sunshine and warm air advection returning on Sunday will allow for a large rebound to upper 40s to mid 50s. Warm air advection continues on Sunday night, but valleys should decouple, leading to a potential for some sizable ridge/valley low temp differences. Models agree on a shortwave trough traveling quickly eastward over the CONUS, supporting a surface low tracking from the central high plains Sunday evening to the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Moisture advection off the gulf will join our ongoing warm air advection ahead of the system's cold front. This will bring a round of showers on Monday night. The actual cold front probably won't pass until Tuesday afternoon, which will allow for another mild day. Exactly how mild may be dependent on how quickly precip ends and clouds break up. Even behind the front, there won't be much of a push of cold air, and Wednesday should still see temps well above normal. Models show a very potent mid/upper level low/trough emerging east over the plains on Wednesday, supporting development of a large, deep surface low. The system's track and timing is still uncertain at that long time range. The deterministic/operational ECMWF shows associated rain making it to our western counties by late Wednesday, while the deterministic/operational GFS holds it to our west, and GEFS has members that do bring it east into our area. Have used a low POP for most of our counties, with the greatest POP expected to arrive from the west beyond the current long term period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 710 AM EST THU JAN 12 2023 Primarily VFR ceilings were present across the area at issuance time and are expected to generally prevail for most of the daylight hours. Brief reductions to MVFR or worse are possible at times due to passing showers and thunderstorms. The first complex of showers and thunderstorms is lifting along the Ohio River and will brush points near and north of the I-64 corridor this morning (including SYM). One or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms will track west-to-east across the area from 15 to 00z. Any storm that develops today will be capable of producing strong, erratic winds. Hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms. Once the front passes this evening, expect ceilings to deteriorate to IFR or worse tonight. An increasing LLJ ahead of the cold front will lead to a period of LLWS this morning until better mixing develops. Southerly winds this morning will veer southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15KT by 17Z, with gusts into the 20 to 30KT range. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for KYZ087-088-118-120. && UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GEERTSON
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 512 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119- 131200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Elliott-Morgan- Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay- Leslie-Martin- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, and Inez 512 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a possibility for thunderstorms today along and ahead of a strong cold front. Any storm which develops could become severe, with strong to damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Hail is possible, and, while not likely, there is also a remote possibility for a brief tornado as well. Much colder air will arrive behind the cold front tonight, changing any remaining rain showers over to snow showers. Any accumulations through tonight will be minimal. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Snow showers will continue on Friday and Friday evening before diminishing to flurries Friday night and Saturday morning. Light snowfall accumulations of a dusting to 1 inch are expected at most locations, with up to 2 inches at elevations above 1,500 feet. Locally higher amounts are possible at locations affected by the most persistent snow showers. However, warm pavement temperatures should lessen travel impacts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report thunderstorm wind damage today. KYZ087-088-118-120-131200- Bell-Harlan-Letcher-Pike- Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 512 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a possibility for thunderstorms today along and ahead of a strong cold front. Any storm which develops could become severe, with strong to damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Hail is possible, and, while not likely, there is also a remote possibility for a brief tornado as well. Much colder air will arrive behind the cold front tonight, changing any remaining rain showers over to snow showers. Any snowfall accumulations through tonight will be limited to the higher elevations above 1,500 feet. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Snow showers will continue on Friday and Friday evening, before diminishing to flurries Friday night and Saturday morning. Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected, with the highest amounts above 1,500 feet. Localized higher amounts cannot be ruled out on top of Black Mountain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report thunderstorm wind damage today. GEERTSON/HAL
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</html>The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:13 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down across KY-213, heading up Furnace Mountain - just south of Stanton.
A tree was reported down along Cane Creek Road (CR-615), northwest of Bowen and east of Rosslyn.
A tree was reported down across KY-2491 just east of Campton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1076031, 1076042, 1076033.