Damaging Wind in Kentucky, April 1, 2023

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
449 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SAT APR 1 2023

With some strong gusts still occurring along some our higher
ridgetops around the area, decided to leave the high wind waring
as is to keep our bases covered. The NPW will probably be able to
be let go in an hour so once the strongest gusts have subsided.
The winds will continue to slacken this evening and tonight as a
cold front continues to move off to the east of our area. Cloud
cover will be on the increase this evening, however, as moisture
wrapping around the backside of a departing low pressure system
aloft moves through the region. These clouds will persist across
most of the area tonight through early tomorrow morning, before
finally tapering off. We should finally see most clear skies over
eastern Kentucky by early tomorrow afternoon. High pressure should
keep the weather dry and pleasant through early Monday morning.
Another area of low pressure will be approaching the area from the
west, and could allow an isolated shower to sneak across the
Tennessee border by 12Z Monday morning. We are expecting lows
tonight in the low to mid 30s around the area, and with winds
slacking off greatly overnight, the potential for frost will exist
late tonight into early tomorrow morning. We will see lower
temperatures on Sunday, as a cooler air mass settles over the
area, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on tap across
eastern KY. Sunday night will be much warmer that tonight, with
lows in the valleys only fall to around 40, while the surrounding
ridges cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 448 PM EDT SAT APR 1 2023

The period is expected to begin with somewhat zonal/westerly flow
from the central to the eastern Conus downstream of an upper level
low and trough over the western Conus. A shortwave trough is
expected to be moving across portions of Ontario to the Great Lakes
as the period begins with another shortwave trough moving through
portions of the OH Valley and southeast. At the sfc as the period
begins, a sfc low associated with the shortwave trough extending
through the Great Lakes is anticipated to be over Ontario with an
associated frontal zone trailing to western Lake Ontario to the
Plains and then on into the western Conus. Further north a frontal
zone is expected to extend from Quebec to the Lake Superior vicinity
to the Dakotas and then into MT and western Canada.

Monday to Tuesday, the shortwave initially in the Great Lakes should
track into the Northeast and then the Maritimes while the shortwave
trough over the southeastern Conus also moves off the southeast
Coast/Coast of the Carolinas. The pattern is expected to amplify
during this time with upper level ridging building north from the
Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast while the upper level low in the
western Conus moves to the Rockies and then enters the Plains. As
this occurs, low pressure should develop and deepen in the Lee of
the Rockies in eastern CO/KS and then track toward the NE/IA border
vicinity toward Tuesday evening. Meanwhile further east, the frontal
zone initially between the OH Valley and the Great Lakes will more or
less merge with the front dropping in from the Great Lakes leaving
eastern KY in the warm sector. Additional shortwaves in west to
southwest flow aloft on Tuesday should traverse the OH Valley and
eastern KY region.

Tuesday night through Thursday, the axis of upper level ridging
initially extending into the southeast continuing to shift  into the
Atlantic while upper level low deepens and tracks to the Northern
Plains and upper MS Valley through Wednesday and then into Ontario
and Quebec through Thursday. An associated shortwave trough axis
should move into the eastern Conus on Wednesday and eventually
toward the eastern seaboard on Thursday. However, the mean 500 mb
trough axis is only expected to reach the Central Conus by late
Thursday. Meanwhile, the associated sfc low will track to the Upper
MS Valley Tuesday night and then further northeast to across
portions of the Northern Great Lakes Wednesday and then into Ontario
and Quebec through Thursday. The trailing cold front is expected to
move into the Commonwealth on Wednesday and work to the east of
eastern Ky through Thursday.

Thursday night through Saturday, upper level ridging is expected to
remain centered over portions of the Gulf of Mexico while multiple
shortwaves move from the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley east toward
the Great Lakes and Northeast in southwest to westerly flow. Models
vary with the depth and timing of any of these and what interactions
these might have with a frontal zone stalled out over the Gulf of
Mexico and the southeast.

For Monday to Tuesday, some convection is possible as the shortwaves
work across portions of the Great Lakes and Southeast on Monday and
again with weak shortwaves in southwest flow in the warm sector for
Tuesday. The most notable feature these two days may be the mild
temperatures anticipated on Tuesday with highs forecast near 80.
Chances for convection increase toward midweek as the shortwave
trough and cold front begin to near. These chances should peak as
the front crosses the region. This front will cross the region
during a a bit  more favorable time for strong storm potential in
eastern KY and low level moisture may be decent for early Spring
with dewpoints forecast in the mid 50s to near 60. Confidence in
this is low given the low track well to the north and west and
uncertainties in wind fields and instability. Convection chances for
Wednesday and stronger convection potential will continue to be
monitored. Confidence is greater that Wednesday will again be mild
with highs in the upper 70s to near the 80 degree mark in many
locations and some gusty winds are anticipated ahead of the cold
front as well.

To end the period, unsettled weather is possible depending on
moisture and track of individual shortwaves and the degree of
interaction with the frontal zone to the south. Some showers will be
possible at times during this timeframe though some guidance such as
recent operational ECMWF runs would point toward a mostly rain free
end to the week. Behind the front, temperatures will return to
nearer to normal to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT APR 1 2023

VFR conditions will prevail to begin the TAF period this
afternoon. The primary issue for aviators will be the strong and
very gusty winds we are expecting across the area through around
20Z today. The strong wind gusts could reach 60mph through around
19 or 20Z today, before steadily tapering off through sunset. The
winds will be out of the southwest at 18 to 25kts with peak gusts
of 44 to 51kts possible at times. BKN low level cloud cover will
begin affecting the TAF sites late this afternoon into early this
evening, as a large area of low pressure moves by to our north.
These clouds will likely persist through early tomorrow morning at
SYM, JKL, and SJS. LOZ and SME should see the clouds begin to
scatter out early Sunday morning. The winds will continue to
slacken overnight, and should be down to between 5 and 10 kts out
of the northwest by late tonight into early Sunday morning. Sunday
looks to be dry and pleasant, with VFR condition's with partly
cloudy skies early giving to to mostly clear conditions across all
of eastern Kentucky by late in the afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
600 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-022200-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City,
Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville,
Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City,
Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville,
Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
600 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

West to northwest wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible into
the evening before diminishing after sunset.

There will be a small potential for frost late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Frost is possible in places early Sunday morning.

Warmer and more unsettled weather returns next week, with a renewed
threat for thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
609 PM EDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW TWENTYSIX         37.94N 83.37W
04/01/2023                   MORGAN             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN
            ON KY 772.

1245 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W LICK BRANCH         37.96N 83.25W
04/01/2023                   MORGAN             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN
            ALONG KY 1161.

0440 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GORDON FORD             37.89N 83.23W
04/01/2023                   MORGAN             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO STEELE BRANCH
            ROAD.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
629 PM EDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TABOR                   37.91N 83.66W
04/01/2023                   MENIFEE            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN.

1155 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N DENNISTON           37.94N 83.53W
04/01/2023                   MENIFEE            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN
            AROUND NOON.

0430 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW POMEROYTON        37.88N 83.53W
04/01/2023                   MENIFEE            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN.
            THE EVENT TIME IS ESTIMATED.

0130 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 S HIGH FALLS          37.71N 83.58W
04/01/2023                   WOLFE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            A POWERLINE WAS BLOWN DOWN AND CAUGHT SOME
            GRASS ON FIRE ALONG SANDY RIDGE ROAD.

0145 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BETHANY                 37.65N 83.47W
04/01/2023                   WOLFE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
726 PM EDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW GALEN             37.88N 82.84W
04/01/2023                   JOHNSON            KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR THE SITKA
            CHURCH ALONG ROUTE 201.

&&

ACB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
731 PM EDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BARNETTS CREEK          37.83N 82.88W
04/01/2023                   JOHNSON            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN
            NEAR PICKLE FORK AT ROUTE 40 W.

&&

ACB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
739 PM EDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SE STIDHAM            37.88N 82.58W
04/01/2023                   MARTIN             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG TOMAHAWK
            RD NW OR INEZ.

&&

ACB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
742 PM EDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COALPOINT               37.79N 82.44W
04/01/2023                   MARTIN             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG N WOLF CREEK.

&&

ACB