Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 16, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
224 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Key Points:

- 15-35% chance for storms this afternoon and evening with a few
strong to severe storms possible.

- An unsettled pattern brings more rain chances next week.

- Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal.

A mid level shortwave trough was moving southeast across Iowa
into southeast Nebraska at 19Z while the main low remained over
northern Ontario Province. Water vapor suggests the presence of
additional energy upstream dropping south across eastern South
Dakota this afternoon. At the surface a cold front extended from
east central Iowa into central Nebraska at 18Z. Showers and storms
have been ongoing in eastern Nebraska and Iowa into northern
Missouri since this morning. Forecast for this afternoon and
evening remains the same with scattered storms along and ahead of
the front as it moves into northern Kansas and proceeds southward.
Atmosphere continues to destabilize with SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg
across northern Kansas and 25 to 30kts of effective shear at 18Z.
Steepening lapse rates are forecast across northeast Kansas
through the afternoon and into early evening. Given unidirectional
shear profiles of 25 to 35 kts there could be a few strong to
severe storms will be possible through early evening, mainly from
3 PM through 10 PM.

Skies clear later tonight and winds become calm, resulting in
radiational cooling and the potential for fog to develop across the
area. If clouds linger in east central Kansas then little to no fog
development will likely occur. Lows tonight will range from the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

Sunday is looking pleasant with sunny skies and temperatures in the
upper 70s to lower 80s with light north winds.

A transition to a nearly Zonal flow occurs on Monday with
perturbations moving from the Rockies into the Plains. Mass response
to the approaching weave will increase moisture return across
western into central Kansas. Isentropic lift and warm advection as
well as a mid level PV anomaly may lead to some scattered storms
Monday night that may move into north central Kansas. Increasing
warm advection will lead to temperatures warming into the 80s to
lower 90s form Monday into Tuesday.

The zonal flow will give way to a southwesterly flow later next week
as a mid level low remains across the west. Model differences with
regards to the movement of the low and the resultant pattern across
the Plains leads to a lower confidence forecast for precipitation.
Highs in the 70s and 80s are forecast much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Main concern will be chances for tsra at TOP and FOE with models
suggesting around 23Z may see scattered convection. Will continue
to mention vcts at this time from 23Z to 03Z due to scattered
nature of tsra. WInds northwest to become north and remain below
10kts. Winds become light after 06Z with some fog developing
after 09Z and lasting through 14Z Sunday. Expect vfr cigs outside
of convection.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
226 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-171930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
226 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms
could be strong to severe with hail up to quarter size and wind
gusts up to 60 mph being the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
236 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

KSZ011-012-162000-
Brown-Nemaha-
236 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Nemaha
and northwestern Brown Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Bern, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sabetha and Morrill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 9581 4000 9596 4000 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 312DEG 19KT 4003 9584

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH