Southerly upper level winds moved across Kansas and brought in a thick layer of low-level stratus clouds during the early morning hours. These clouds limited surface heating during the day; however, cooler air aloft moved over the area during midday.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Southerly upper level winds moved across Kansas and brought in a thick layer of low-level stratus clouds during the early morning hours. These clouds limited surface heating during the day; however, cooler air aloft moved over the area during midday. These conditions resulted in more instability. This instability combined with a low-pressure system, forcing from a strong 500 mb jet, and strong low-level wind shear. There was locally enhanced 0 1 km helicity near a surface low. There was an intersection of a surface warm front with a dryline and cold front near the center of the surface low. The cold front moved across the area during the overnight hours. These conditions resulted in severe weather during the afternoon hours. Storms developed across northern Kansas during the early afternoon hours. One storm moved across north central Kansas and produced a very brief tornado near the town of Beloit at 3:39 PM CDT. This tornado was rated as an EF-0.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 12, 11:18 AM CST, 3 hours 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Key Messages:
* Severe storms noon to 8pm today. Hail, wind and tornadoes are
all possible across nearly the entire forecast area. Storms
move from southwest to northeast. Peak timeframe for tornadoes
is 3-6pm.
* High winds likely starting early Friday morning. Highest winds
west of Highway 281, but entire area has good potential to see
gusts 50-60 MPH.
* Cold weekend. Subfreezing temperatures possible Saturday,
Sunday and Monday nights. Sunday night is likely coldest, but
not a widespread "hard-freeze."
Details:
As of late morning, surface observations show surface low just
centered around Oberlin, KS and slowly pushing northeast with
dryline/cold front extending to the south/southwest. Most of the
area remains cloudy, but ascent from the strong upper-level system
should help compensate for any lack of instability from daytime
heating. There are already some weak thunderstorms on radar, with
near-term models indicating potential for severe convection as
early as 1pm, with coverage/intensity increasing by 3-4pm.
Primary point of initiation is favored to be in the
Dawson/Phelps/Harlan county area, with storms will continue to
move northeast across the area through early evening.
Strong shear (effective bulk shear of 40-50kts) will favor
supercell structures, but CAMs do show a somewhat "messy" storm
mode. Regardless, these storms will be supportive of large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes. The tornado environment appears to
be most favorable roughly in the 3-6pm timeframe as we see good
low level instability (0-3km CAPE 200-300j/kg) paired with locally
enhanced 0-1km helicity near the surface low. The ensemble mean
sigtor parameter from the 12Z HREF is in the 1-2 range, pretty
good clustering of updraft helicity nearby. While not a huge
"tornado outbreak" day, I'd personally be surprised if we don't
have at least a couple tornadoes this afternoon.
Severe storms move out of the area by 7-8pm, but showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms remain possible into the evening.
After a bit of a lull in the early overnight, additional rain will
move in from the northwest on the backside of the low. At this
same time, northwest winds should really start to ramp up. Expect
western portions of the area to already be seeing gusts around
60mph at sunrise on Friday with this spreading eastward through
the morning hours. The entire area is likely to see gusts over 50
MPH, but eastern portions are still less favored to meet high-wind
criteria (58 MPH), so the High Wind Warning has been kept just
for our counties from Highway 281 westward. Temperatures in the
40s and 50s will make for a truly unpleasant day.
We dry out on Saturday, and winds continue to decrease, but we
will remain cool with temperatures only reaching the low to mid
50s for most. Overnight lows could dip to near freezing in western
portions of the are Saturday night.
Sunday will be similar to Saturday, but with lighter wind. Sunday
night will be the coldest night of the week as high pressure
moves across. Western areas are likely to see freezing
temperatures, but this likely won't be a widespread hard freeze
for the entire area. We gradually warm up back to near normal by
the middle of next week. Our next system brings our next chance
for rain into the area Wednesday into next Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
IFR ceilings should lift this afternoon, then thunderstorms (some
severe) expected to move through the region in the 20-01Z
timeframe.
Ceilings fall back to MVFR and substantially stronger winds arrive
on the back side of the low Friday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Rooks and Osborne
counties. Given the cloud cover, am not confident enough to expand
it any further eastward or northward. Regardless of exact RH
values, the southwest/west winds gusting up to 40 MPH will lead to
very high fire danger. Humidity comes up substantially tonight,
but the arrival of 50-60 MPH northwest gusts Friday morning would
cause issues with any firefighting efforts should any fires start
up today.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for NEZ039-040-
046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
KS...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ005-006-
017-018.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ017-018.
&&
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels
FIRE WEATHER...MangelsHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 131200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Severe thunderstorms are possible over most of the outlook area through approximately 8pm this evening The highest threat for severe weather is approximately 3 to 7pm. Threats include tornadoes, large hail up to the size of ping pong balls, and damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of north central Kansas today. The worst conditions are expected to be across Osborne and Rooks counties, where a Red Flag warning is in effect until 7 PM. Late tonight, strong northwest winds will begin to spread across the outlook area, and a High Wind Warning is in effect for areas along and west of Highway 281. Please see the High Wind Warning message for additional details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Northwest winds gusting 45 to 60 MPH continue across the entire outlook area into Friday afternoon. The High Wind Warning will be remains effect through 7 PM Friday western portions of the outlook area that are most likely to see gusts near 60 MPH. Sunday night into Monday morning near to below freezing temperatures are expected across the local area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Any reports of hail, damaging wind gusts, funnel clouds or tornadoes are always appreciated. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
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</html>Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
258 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
KSZ005-NEZ082-083-122030-
Phillips KS-Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
258 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS...
SOUTHEASTERN FURNAS AND SOUTHERN HARLAN COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
CDT...
At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Almena, or 15 miles northeast of Norton, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Stamford and Long Island around 305 PM CDT.
Orleans and Woodruff around 310 PM CDT.
Alma around 315 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for north central
Kansas...and south central Nebraska.
&&
LAT...LON 4024 9951 4008 9924 3985 9962 4000 9963
4000 9977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 223DEG 34KT 3997 9966
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MangelsSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
314 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
NEZ073-074-083-084-122045-
Franklin NE-Phelps NE-Kearney NE-Harlan NE-
314 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHEASTERN PHELPS...SOUTHWESTERN KEARNEY AND NORTHEASTERN HARLAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...
At 314 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ragan, or 8 miles southeast of Holdrege, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Holdrege, Wilcox, and Funk around 320 PM CDT.
Axtell around 325 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for south central
Nebraska.
&&
LAT...LON 4055 9930 4055 9908 4023 9915 4015 9921
4023 9933 4035 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 203DEG 31KT 4033 9931
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
WeselySpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
325 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
NEZ046-061-073-074-122115-
Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Kearney NE-Sherman NE-
325 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PHELPS...
NORTHWESTERN KEARNEY...CENTRAL BUFFALO AND SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...
At 325 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Hazard to near Amherst to
near Funk. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Kearney, Odessa, Pleasanton, and Riverdale around 330 PM CDT.
Hazard around 335 PM CDT.
This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 260 and 278.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for south central
and central Nebraska.
&&
LAT...LON 4120 9904 4098 9893 4055 9899 4054 9932
4075 9934 4105 9930 4105 9921 4112 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 233DEG 14KT 4104 9922 4083 9920 4053 9930
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MangelsSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
332 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
NEZ073-074-084-122100-
Franklin NE-Phelps NE-Kearney NE-
332 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHEASTERN PHELPS AND SOUTHWESTERN KEARNEY COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
CDT...
At 332 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Funk to near Wilcox to 7 miles
southwest of Hildreth. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Axtell, Hildreth, and Wilcox around 335 PM CDT.
Minden and Upland around 345 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for south central
Nebraska.
&&
LAT...LON 4056 9932 4058 9892 4029 9883 4012 9918
4035 9918 4035 9923
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 227DEG 29KT 4055 9922 4041 9916 4024 9912
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
WeselyPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
337 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0335 PM Rain 2 NW Lexington 40.80N 99.76W
10/12/2023 M2.22 inch Dawson NE Mesonet
Daily total so far...most of which fell
1-2pm. Unofficial mesonet.
&&
PfannkuchThe Grand Island radar (KUEX), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:37 UTC.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
This tornado was reported by the public to the NWS via pictures and video. No rating nor wind speed was assigned due to the lack of quality damage indicators in the area. The location is estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kansas, 2023Warnings in Kansas, October 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1140301.