Hail in Kansas, May 3, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
324 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023

...Updated short and long term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023

During the short term forecast, an upper level ridge will be
found above the Plains with a large upper level low over the
western United States. Pieces of energy will swing around this
upper level feature and into the central Plains over the next few
days enhancing lift. The first piece of energy will move into
eastern Colorado this evening. The atmosphere looks to become
unstable enough this afternoon for a few thunderstorms to form
across far southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico
during peak heating. CAM models show a few storms moving into far
southwestern Kansas this evening. There is a chance for a a storm
or two to become strong to severe with hail and wind being the
main concern. Any storms that do form should decrease in intensity
after sunset as they slide eastward towards central Kansas.
Otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness this evening with low
clouds developing after midnight east of highway 83. Lee troughing
will continue to be in place across eastern Colorado through
tonight with winds from the south. Lows will generally be in the
low 50s.

The next piece of energy looks to move into the area by tomorrow
afternoon. Mid to upper level cloudiness will continue to increase
in coverage as this feature approaches with southerly winds at
the surface. By tomorrow afternoon, an area of low pressure will
be found across southeastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico
with a warm front draping eastward near the KS/OK border. A few
elevated thunderstorms are expected to form north of this boundary
in the late afternoon into early evening. Only a few strong
storms are expected in this area with limited severe weather
threat. If the warm front is farther north than the ensemble
models predict, a few storms across south central Kansas may
become severe with hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
Even an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. However, I think
most of the severe activity will remain south and east of the area
in Oklahoma. Highs tomorrow will reach to around 80 degrees.
Storms continue across central Kansas overnight and be confined to
north central Kansas by Friday morning. Cloudiness will decrease
from west to east with lows ranging from the upper 40s across far
western Kansas to mid 50s across central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023

A few additional pieces of energy are expected to move into the
Plains Friday into this weekend, but these are expected to be
farther north leaving western Kansas dry. Southerly winds are
expected to continue as we head through this weekend with mostly
clear skies. Long range ensemble models and the NBM continue to
bring a chance of storms across central Kansas as we head into
next week. Otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. The
remainder of the CWA looks to remain dry with partly cloudy skies.
As for temperatures, highs will reach into the 80s throughout the
long term forecast with a few places reaching 90 degrees this
weekend. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 40s
across far western Kansas to mid 50s across central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023

VFR conditions will prevail with increasing mid level cloudiness.
A few thunderstorms will be possible across far western late this
afternoon into this evening and spread eastward this evening. Have
placed a VCTS to account for this since confidence is low on
how widespread these events will occur and timing. Winds will
generally be from a southerly direction through tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  80  53  83 /  30  30  30  10
GCK  52  78  51  82 /  30  30  20  10
EHA  54  82  48  86 /  30  20   0   0
LBL  53  82  49  86 /  40  30  10   0
HYS  51  80  53  83 /  30  60  70  20
P28  53  79  56  83 /  30  50  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
215 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-040715-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
215 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 /115 AM MDT Wed May 3 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Some storms may be strong to severe, producing marginally severe
hail and wind gusts. High end severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
evening. The risk of large hail and damaging winds will be focused
on the southeast zones, mainly southeast of Dodge City.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation is possible Wednesday evening, mainly
across the western zones.

Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
428 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023

KSZ074-084-032200-
Stanton KS-Morton KS-
428 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Morton and
Stanton Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 428 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of The Saunders Elevator, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  The Saunders Elevator around 440 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 10204 3771 10158 3726 10160 3724 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 251DEG 13KT 3736 10204

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HOVORKA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
531 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023

KSZ074-084-032300-
Stanton KS-Morton KS-
531 PM CDT Wed May 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Morton and
southern Stanton Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 531 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of The Saunders Elevator, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Richfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3760 10204 3760 10155 3717 10158 3725 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 285DEG 9KT 3734 10200

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HOVORKA