Drought in Kansas, April 1 to 30, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1147 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Key Messages:

1. Scattered severe storms expected into early this evening,
especially east of the Highway 65 corridor. Hail to two inches
in diameter, damaging wind gusts up to 70mph, and tornadoes are
the primary potential hazards. A few tornadoes may be strong
across the eastern Ozarks.

2. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 45-60 mph will also occur today
with the strongest gusts occurring this afternoon along and west
of the Highway 49 corridor.

3. Critical fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon
and evening across western Missouri and southeast Kansas as a warm
and dry air mass overspreads the area. Fires in these conditions
will rapidly grow and spread.

4. There will be the potential for frost development across
portions of the eastern Ozarks Saturday night into Sunday morning.

5. An active weather pattern returns next week, including severe
thunderstorm and flooding potential Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM...(Late this Afternoon and Evening)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Severe Thunderstorms into Early Evening: Water vapor imagery depicts
closed low pressure tracking east along the SD/NE border with a
trough axis extending south into central KS and OK. This trough is
in the process of taking on a negative tilt.

At the surface, low pressure continues to rapidly deepen as it
tracks across northern IA. A dry line trails the low and has now
made it into western MO. A Pacific cold front also trails the low
and is quickly tracking east across eastern Kansas. Ahead of the
dry line, surface dew points are in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Behind the dry line, dew points drop into the 40s and 30s, but
then crash into the 20s behind the cold front.

We have already seen a few rounds of scattered severe storms today.
One area was across south-central Missouri with a second round now
underway across portions of western Missouri. The atmosphere ahead
of the dry line remains primed for supercell thunderstorms. MLCAPEs
are in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, which is an uptick from previous
short term forecasts and expectations. Note that the 18Z KSGF
RAOB measured 1654 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep layer shear remains strong
with effective deep layer shear values in the 60-80 knot range.

We expect scattered supercell thunderstorms to continue developing
and rapidly moving northeast as the dry line approaches and passes
the Highway 65 corridor. These storms will rapidly become severe,
especially as they cross east of the Highway 65 corridor. Hail to
2"+ in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and tornadoes all remain
potential hazards. The concern for strong tornadoes still exists,
especially as these storms approach the Highway 63 corridor in the
eastern Ozarks as Effective Significant Tornado Parameter values
remain in the 2-4 range. Severe storms are still expected to exit
the eastern Ozarks by around 8 PM.

High Non-Thunderstorm Winds and Fire Weather: Surface winds behind
the passing dry line will shift to the southwest and then west.
Short term models continue to suggest that areas west of Highway
65 will mix to around or just above 700 mb. Given that winds in
the 850-700 mb layer will be in the 50-55 knot range, we are still
confident that gusts around 60 mph will occur west of Highway 65.
Gusts in the 45-55 mph are expected elsewhere. The High Wind
Warning and Wind Advisories have this covered well.

Meanwhile, humidities will rapidly fall behind the dry line and
then cold front as those dew points crash. We still expect values
to fall into the 15-25% range near and west of the Highway 65
corridor late this afternoon and this evening. This will result in
critical fire weather conditions, especially in finer fuel areas
such as grasslands.

.LONG TERM...(Late tonight through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Later Tonight into the Weekend: Another cold front will pass
through the Ozarks late tonight with winds shifting to the
northwest by Saturday morning. Winds will still be quite gusty up
towards Rolla Saturday morning with Bufkit profiles showing the
potential for 40 knot gusts transporting to the surface. Thus,
this Wind Advisory segment will be left intact. Winds will
diminish as we get into Saturday afternoon.

Otherwise, Saturday looks dry and seasonably cool with highs
dropping back into the middle and upper 50s. We will have to
watch for frost potential Saturday night across the eastern Ozarks
as winds become light and skies remain clear.

Sunday will be much warmer as upper level ridging spreads back
over the region. Confidence is high that temperatures will warm
into the upper 60s and lower 70s with increasing southerly surface
winds.

Sunday Night and Monday: Models depict a weak short wave trough
traversing the region. A few light rain showers may occur in
association with this feature, however chances for measurable
rainfall remain below 30%.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: The WPC Cluster scenarios continue to
depict a deep upper level trough emerging from the Rockies on
Tuesday. This trough is then forecast to take on a negative tilt
with a closed low developing and lifting into MN by 12Z Wednesday.
At the surface, low pressure will rapidly deepen across the
central High Plains Monday night before lifting northeast through
the Corn Belt on Tuesday.

The setup again looks favorable for severe thunderstorms across
the Central U.S. next Tuesday. Details regarding timing and
convective hazards will become clearer as we get into Sunday and
Monday. We will also have to monitor the potential for heavy
rainfall, especially if convection comes in multiple rounds.

The cluster scenarios then indicate the flow flattening out behind
that system with a quiet and cooler period returning Wednesday
and Thursday. We will again have to watch for frost and possibly
light freeze potential next Wednesday night. NBM numbers are
trending downwards for lows with deterministic numbers now in the
lower and middle 30s along and north of the I-44 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Should generally maintain VFR through the period. Winds will be
the main concern. Although the winds have dropped off this
evening, some gustiness will again be possible overnight and then
again on Saturday before becoming light and variable around 00z
Sun as surface high pressure moves overhead.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-068>071-080-
     081.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ082-083-091-092-
     096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
810 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
810 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Significant fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

Gusty winds will continue, with the strongest winds east of
highway 65 tonight where wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph will still be
possible.  Gusts over 30 mph will be possible west of highway 65.

The combination of the gusty winds and very dry air will continue
to lead to some significant fire danger in western Missouri and
southeast Kansas where a red flag warning remains in effect until
10 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Wednesday.

There will be the potential for frost development across portions
of the eastern Missouri Ozarks Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

Another strong low pressure system will bring showers and storms
back to the region along with the potential for severe storms and
flooding next Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
840 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W NEOSHO              36.87N 94.39W
03/31/2023  M69 MPH          NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITH THE WIND.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
841 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 WSW GOODMAN           36.70N 94.52W
03/31/2023  M67 MPH          MCDONALD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&