A deepening area of low pressure tracked from the Ozarks during the pre-dawn hours of February 9th to the southern Great Lakes by afternoon. Due to a tight pressure gradient near the low, southwesterly winds gusted 40 to 50 mph throughout the day.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
A deepening area of low pressure tracked from the Ozarks during the pre-dawn hours of February 9th to the southern Great Lakes by afternoon. Due to a tight pressure gradient near the low, southwesterly winds gusted 40 to 50 mph throughout the day. Peak gusts exceeded 50 mph across east-central Illinois around midday, with the Champaign Airport recording a maximum gust of 54 mph. Isolated wind damage was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 9, 5:59 AM CST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 559 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 151 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 A dynamic storm system lifting across central Illinois will bring gusty winds and rapidly falling temperatures through this afternoon, along with a chance for mixed precipitation northwest of Peoria. Cold advection behind the system will lead to more seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday before another warm up arrives on Sunday and continues through the first portion of the upcoming work week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 151 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 A weak surface low in southwest Missouri will bring a warm front north across areas east of I-55 and south of I-72 over the next several hours as it rapidly deepens beneath a compact and fast- moving negatively-tilted 500mb vort max. Guidance continues to show this low moving directly across central/northern Illinois mid morning, with it reaching the Chicago Metro by around noon. Fortunately, it appears it will deepen somewhat less aggressively than model guidance was suggesting even yesterday, with the low bottoming out at around 997mb (instead of 992-995mb) by the time it moves northeast of I-74, which is good news for us. Still, a couple weather concerns exist for the near team: * Severe weather (wind): VAD wind profilers above VWX and Paducah showed southerly winds within the LLJ at 1.5kft of 65 kt and 75 kt, respectively, as of 2 AM - right on point with what the RAP and NAM have been depicting for the past couple of days. With winds so strong not-so-far off the surface, the strongly forced line of showers (evident in southeast and east- central Missouri right now) along the cold front will carry the threat of translating this momentum to the surface via evaporational cooling. Various convective allowing models (CAMs), namely the HRRR, NAMNest, and HRDPS, have been fairly consistently portraying this nearly continuous line of convection crossing the CWA mainly east of I-57 and south of I-70 between 330 AM and 7 AM, and their wind gust forecasts reveal the potential for surface gusts greater than 55 mph in isolated pockets. We may wind up needing one or two thunderstorm warnings for this convection, but time will tell. There likely won't be a lot of thunder given how shallow the activity will be, with forecast soundings suggesting a lack of instability within the hail growth zone for charge separation and only 200-400 J/kg of MUCAPE altogether. I can't completely rule out an isolated spin up along the line of showers given the strong low level shear accompanying the front, especially east of I-57 where the HRRR is suggesting a brief period of 0-3km CAPE values exceeding 100 J/kg in pockets. SPC's tornado risk is less than 2% for our area, and this seems reasonable given the time of day, though we'll be monitoring showers/storms closely. * Strong, non-convective wind gusts: The cold front will essentially cross the area at the same time as the convection, and behind it the potential for synoptic-scale, non-convective gusts will significantly increase even though the fastest winds aloft associated with the LLJ will be quickly exiting with FROPA. The CAMs have each trended a bit weaker with the surface low and hence synoptic scale winds behind the cold front this morning through the afternoon, though they've also delayed the period of strongest winds by a couple hours. Fortunately, we allowed a bit of a buffer in the end time of the advisory, so it doesn't appear we'll need to extend it past its scheduled termination time of 6 PM. Of course, we'll continue to monitor that, though at this time the best opportunity for advisory- level gusts will be between 6 AM and 3 PM, with the strongest gusts along and east of the I-57 corridor where HREF has 30-50% (60-90%) probabilities for gusts over 50 (45) mph. There has been a recent trend in the CAMs to have fairly strong winds associated with evaporation/sublimation within the wrap around precip band west of I-55 (where there currently is no advisory), so we'll watch the next few model iterations as well as observation trends to see if we need a westward expansion of that headline. * Flooding: Thus far, surface observations generally suggest MRMS QPE has been overestimating by about 25%. Still, with fairly sparse observations across parts of our CWA, it will prove useful this morning as moderate rain continues to lift northeastward from southwest and into central Illinois where MRMS 1km composite reflectivity shows the bulk of the precipitation is currently situated. So far, we've had only around a half inch in our far southeast, with very little elsewhere. Additionally, the back edge of the main, large scale ascent-driven precip has exited areas south of I-70, where the flood watch was in effect; hence, that's been cancelled. Today, cold advection will quickly bring temperatures back into the 30s northwest of I-55 and 40s southeast - seasonable once again. There will likely be some rain/snow mix transitioning to all snow with possibly light accumulations in our extreme northwest CWA this afternoon evening within the TROWAL wrapping around the low - though the better dynamic forcing for ascent will be west of our area near the Iowa/Illinois line where several inches of snow accumulation look like a good bet. Tonight, that precipitation will exit with the low, winds will relax, and despite lingering cloud cover we'll cool into the 20s north and low 30s south. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 151 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 Another, positively-tilted, upper trough will split as it crosses the region, with one part of it becoming a cut off low in the lower MS River Valley and the other part quickly moving into the northeast CONUS tomorrow. At the surface, high pressure will build in from the north, perhaps breaking up the cloud cover over us tomorrow afternoon. Still, given the continued, albeit weakening, cold advection, we'll likely have near seasonable temperatures with highs in the 30s and (Friday night) lows in the upper teens to low 20s. After another chilly day Saturday, a shortwave ridge will poke into the Midwest behind the cutoff low in the deep south, leading to southwest low level flow and hence warm advection which will bring us back into the 40s to perhaps low 50s at the surface, i.e., 10+ degrees above normal yet again. Warm weather is likely to continue through the first part of the week, with NBM yielding an 10th to 90th percentile temperature range from 46F to 54F and 47F to 56F in Springfield on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. However, uncertainty in the upper pattern, let alone surface features responsible for our sensible weather, increases heading into mid and especially late week, with about 75% of the LREF GE suggesting ridging and 25% suggesting troughing will be over us by Wednesday. Quite a few ensembles have a system giving us precipitation by midweek, though the still uncertain track of the low will be critical for temperatures and precipitation type (which is likely to at least begin as rain). && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 547 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 VAD wind profilers at PAH, LWV, and now ILX are reporting 50 to 60 kt winds at 015 to 020, indicating LLWS which should primarily impact the eastern terminals as a LLJ moves northward ahead of a surface low approaching from the southwest. In addition, south to southwest winds are gusting upwards of 40 kt at times east of I-57 with a line of showers along a strong cold front. Along with the LLWS, these showers should quickly move out of the area in the next hour or two, while strong gusty winds from the southwest will develop immediately behind the cold front. These could gust 35 kt or higher at times, all the while veering to northwesterly through early afternoon before easing after around 22z (4 PM CST). There will be a break in IFR ceilings right behind the cold front, but then another low MVFR or high IFR deck is expected to move in from the comma head region of the low later this afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ038-042>046. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ051>057-061>063- 066>068-071>073. && SYNOPSIS...Bumgardner SHORT TERM...Bumgardner LONG TERM...Bumgardner AVIATION...Bumgardner
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 555 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-101200- Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason- Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan- 555 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Northwest winds will gust 35 to 45 mph late morning through mid afternoon, causing driving difficulties for high profile vehicles. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066-101200- McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian- Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham- 555 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. South to southwest winds will gust 40 to 50 mph this morning, then west to northwest winds will gust 40 to 50 mph this afternoon. These strong winds may lead to isolated power outages, minor tree damage, and will cause travel difficulties for those driving high profile vehicles. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ067-068-071>073-101200- Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 555 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. South to southwest winds will gust 40 to 50 mph this morning, then west to northwest winds will gust 40 to 50 mph this afternoon. These strong winds may lead to isolated power outages, minor tree damage, and will cause travel difficulties for those driving high profile vehicles. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. Bumgardner
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
536 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023
ILZ055>057-063-068-091200-
Douglas-Coles-Clark-Edgar-Crawford-
536 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Coles,
northeastern Crawford, Edgar, Clark and eastern Douglas Counties
through 600 AM CST...
At 535 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Camargo to near Palestine. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Camargo around 540 AM CST.
Villa Grove and Newman around 545 AM CST.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 57 between mile markers 215 and 216.
Interstate 70 between mile markers 130 and 154.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3931 8762 3930 8760 3926 8761 3925 8757
3922 8757 3914 8766 3912 8763 3911 8765
3910 8762 3906 8757 3900 8758 3899 8756
3899 8758 3898 8755 3893 8774 3986 8828
3986 8754 3936 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1135Z 221DEG 43KT 3979 8819 3900 8765
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
25PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 AM CST THU FEB 9 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0518 AM TSTM WND GST MOUNT CARMEL AIRPORT 38.61N 87.73W
02/09/2023 M51 MPH LAWRENCE IL AWOS
0523 AM TSTM WND GST COLES COUNTY AIRPORT 39.48N 88.28W
02/09/2023 M57 MPH COLES IL ASOS
0529 AM TSTM WND GST LAWRENCEVILLE AIRPORT 38.76N 87.60W
02/09/2023 M54 MPH LAWRENCE IL ASOS
&&
ERWINSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
548 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023
ILZ045-046-091215-
Vermilion-Champaign-
548 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Vermilion and
Champaign Counties through 615 AM CST...
At 548 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Philo, or 10 miles southeast of Champaign, moving northeast at 60
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
St. Joseph and Homer around 555 AM CST.
Ogden around 600 AM CST.
Oakwood, Fithian and Muncie around 605 AM CST.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Potomac.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 57 between mile markers 219 and 257.
Interstate 72 between mile markers 180 and 182.
Interstate 74 between mile markers 174 and 219.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3989 8830 4040 8843 4040 8794 4049 8793
4049 8753 3989 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1148Z 226DEG 52KT 4002 8812
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
25PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
640 AM CST THU FEB 9 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0518 AM TSTM WND GST MOUNT CARMEL AIRPORT 38.61N 87.73W
02/09/2023 M51 MPH LAWRENCE IL AWOS
0523 AM TSTM WND GST COLES COUNTY AIRPORT 39.48N 88.28W
02/09/2023 M57 MPH COLES IL ASOS
0529 AM TSTM WND GST LAWRENCEVILLE AIRPORT 38.76N 87.60W
02/09/2023 M54 MPH LAWRENCE IL ASOS
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE CLAY CITY 38.61N 88.31W
02/09/2023 M1.32 INCH CLAY IL CO-OP OBSERVER
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW BRIDGEPORT 38.70N 87.77W
02/09/2023 M1.40 INCH LAWRENCE IL MESONET
0615 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE FLORA 38.68N 88.48W
02/09/2023 M1.18 INCH CLAY IL CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
ERWINPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
749 AM CST THU FEB 9 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN MURRAYVILLE 39.59N 90.25W
02/09/2023 M1.22 INCH MORGAN IL COCORAHS
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN HUTSONVILLE 39.11N 87.66W
02/09/2023 M1.05 INCH CRAWFORD IL CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WSW SHERMAN 39.89N 89.62W
02/09/2023 M1.01 INCH SANGAMON IL CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW KNOXVILLE 40.91N 90.29W
02/09/2023 M1.00 INCH KNOX IL COCORAHS
&&
ERWINThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A power pole was blown onto a home in Mechanicsburg.
A light pole was blown down in Sidney.
A tree was blown down in the South Shores area of Decatur.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1082286, 1082287, 1082288.