NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 1:10 PM MST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 1:10 PM MST, 3 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
210 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2023
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Upper ridge overhead
today and continues to slowly shift east through Monday. Deep
omega-block in place with deep upper lows over the Great Lakes and
off the California coast. Southerly flow increases Monday,
allowing for some mid-level moisture to creep into East Idaho.
There is a very small chance of a weak shower and MAYBE a
lightning strike or two the rest of today, mainly in the western
portions of the region, but precipitation shouldnt amount to more
than a sprinkle, if any. As far as temperatures go, kept forecast
above the Blend, as with previous trends, and may still not be
high enough as today's temperatures are averaging some 4-8 degrees
above yesterday on an hourly basis. Widespread 80+ in lower
elevations is looking more likely today, and even better chances
on Monday. Record temps may be approached at the official climate
sites (Pocatello, Idaho Falls, Burley, Stanley, Challis). Where
reasonable snow pack remains, those temperatures should be cooler,
but that's a rapidly changing situation as well. Snow melt is
definitely the over arching concern in the forecast cycle the next
few days, and the Hydrology discussion below hits more details.
As far as winds go, surface gradient stiffens between thermal
surface low and high pressure to the northeast, so breezy winds
pick up through the Snake Plain tonight into Monday. DMH
.LONG TERM...Tue through next Sun night. The upper level ridge
breaks down just enough in the northeast corner of the forecast area
to produce a threat of thunderstorms with little precipitation in
that area for the afternoon and evening. With the approach of the
upper level low on Wed night/Thu, the increasing diffluence aloft
and instability overall means an increasing threat of showers and
thunderstorms for each afternoon/evening from Thu through Sun.
Afternoons from Wed through Fri also appear to approach windy
conditions, below Advisory levels, and finally the increased cloud
cover will bring down temperatures closer to normal on Thu, and
below normal for Fri and Sat as the low pushes a shortwave through
from south to north, with this shortwave nearly closing off and
becoming its own upper level low. So the coming weekend will be
nothing like the current weekend. Messick
&&
.AVIATION...Occasional clouds coming in at 600mb or higher, which
means clouds as low as 9000 AGL. A cirrus shield moves in overnight
and continues into Mon, but otherwise limited CIG development. Zero
impact on VSBY, with perhaps some showers in the Wood River
drainage, making a risk of VCSH at KSUN. KSUN also has some curious
wind directions expected, but currently is not verifying in the
forecasted directions, so unsure what is going to happen here. The
doubt maybe because the nearby showers affect the direction of
surface wind. Elsewhere, some wind increases during the overnight
with the strengthening of the gradient aloft, with wind from the
south. Elsewhere, wind is following very close to diurnal
directional changes normally expected. Messick
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures continue to overperform forecasts,
and may be leading to additional melting that may not be
accounted for in snow melt models. Very warm temperatures will
continue through at least mid-week though the warmest temperatures
should occur today and Monday. Forecast water equivalent snow
melt for the rest of today through Monday still looks quite high,
and river forecasts continue to show a strong response through mid
week.
Big Wood at Hailey - ACTION STAGE and still expected to reach
MINOR FLOOD Monday night or Tuesday morning. This is only slightly
later than previously forecast, but probability of reaching MINOR
FLOOD has jumped to 88%. Additionally, Warm Springs Creek has been
trending higher, and may flirt with ACTION STAGE by mid week if
trend extrapolation holds true. The Big Wood further upstream near
Ketchum is so far expected to remain below action stage.
Little Wood above High 5 Creek - almost entirely within ACTION
STAGE now, but still seeing nightly fluctuations into MINOR FLOOD
as the daytime melt works into the waterway. If this trend
continues, will consider upgrade to FLOOD WARNING.
Big Lost River - seeing a response to the melt, but so far the
waterways are staying within banks. Exception may be Antelope
Creek where the waterway may be at or near bankfull.
Willow Creek/Blackfoot River - these two waterways may be very
close to bankfull, and will be gages to watch over the next 24
hours, especially given the temperatures today and expected
Monday.
Portneuf River - the gage at Topaz has leveled off exactly at the
threshold for MINOR FLOOD, and should fluctuate right around this
level through most of the week. The gage at Pocatello remains in
MINOR FLOOD, but is making strides towards reaching MODERATE.
Latest probabilities have trended back to about 45% for reaching
MAJOR. Further downstream between Pocatello and American Falls
Reservoir, the river is rapidly approaching bankfull, and a
FLOOD WARNING may be needed to complete the river stretch.
Bear River - Projections are still for the Bear at Border to reach
MINOR FLOOD Monday night, and bankfull late Monday, flirting with
MINOR late in the week.
Elsewhere, the Henrys at Rexburg is also showing a slow rise, with
potential to reach MINOR FLOOD by next weekend. There is a lot of
time to see how this major stem reacts to snow melt and late week
precipitation.
With all the above in consideration, all products will remain in
place as currently issued, with potential upgrades already noted
above. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for IDZ056>059-061>068-072-
075.
&&