Hail in Georgia, June 5, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
237 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of weak cold fronts will help drive scattered showers and
storms each afternoon and evening through Wednesday. Some of these
storms could pose a risk of severe weather this evening and Tuesday.
The week will start out seasonably warm, but mild temperatures
return Thursday and Friday behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday: The lingering low clouds have slowed
heating and the resulting instability. The clouds are slowly
scattering out or lifting. Over the mountains where clouds cleared
earlier, sbCAPE is 1500 J/kg or higher. The cap is eroding across
the foothills and should over the Piedmont as heating develops.
Moderate low level shear is in place which will lead to at least
moderate effective shear. DCAPE is very high over the area as well.
Convective initiation just now beginning over the mountains. CAMs
had the later initiation then move scattered convection from near
the Blue Ridge SSE across the area into the early evening. Despite a
few supercells developing, the tornado threat remains very low. Hail
will be a threat with very large hail is possible, especially in any
supercells that form. Damaging winds are also expected in any severe
storms given the DCAPE values.

The convection will move south of the area after midnight as a weak
front drops south across the area. There isn't much drying behind
the front initially. This means the threat of fog will continue,
especially in the normally more foggy areas. Lows will be a couple
of degrees below normal.

Drier air does work in after daybreak but mainly across NC. There
will be enough lingering moisture for weak instability to develop
across NE GA and the Upstate. Have isolated diurnal convection for
these areas as coverage looks to be limited, and a dry forecast for
NC. Even with the isolated coverage and weak instability, a few
severe storms will be possible as at least moderate shear and high
DCAPE values remain in place. Highs will be a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday: We remain under the cyclonic flow around the
northeastern upper low component of the persistent omega blocking
pattern through the middle of the week. Today's model guidance
shows better agreement and timing with regard to vorticity rounding
the western side of the mid-level circulation that drives yet
another sfc boundary down from the north. So, after a relatively
quiet Tuesday night, the boundary should approach thru Wednesday
and drop into the fcst area late in the day. This boundary has
a lot going for it forcing-wise, but not much thermodynamically,
if the model guidance is correct. The model response is impressive
enough to suggest ramping up to a likely to good chance of precip
from north to south in the afternoon, so a relatively big upward
adjustment was made based on the model agreement. The boundary is
slow to move thru in some of the guidance and the agreement on the
back end is still lacking, so we retain a chance of precip thru
Wednesday night and into Thursday. The lack of instability should
preclude much of a thunderstorm threat, much less anything strong to
severe. Thursday precip chances are more uncertain and could easily
be overdone if the boundary gets driven farther south and faster
as in some of the guidance. Temps will be a category above normal
for Wednesday ahead of the front, but the frontal passage cools
temps off by ten degrees or so, and back below normal, for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 121 PM Monday: The model guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the frontal zone will finally be far enough south of the
forecast area such that precip will end quickly around sunset on
Thursday. That should give us a quiet start to the weekend as high
pressure moves in Friday and then overhead through Saturday as
the old eastern upper low gets kicked out of the Northeast. Temps
warm back to normal from Friday into Saturday. The break in the
action will probably be brief, however, as the atmosphere wants to
fall right back into the omega blocking pattern starting Sunday
with another vigorous short wave digging down across the Great
Lakes. This wave should cut off another upper low from Sunday into
Monday, in locations varying from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley
and TN valley regions. So...after a weak flat upper ridge takes
the sfc high overhead early in the weekend, we are right back
into the cyclonic flow aloft Sunday night into Monday. Moisture
and forcing both increase substantially as this happens, which
threaten to spoil our Sunday. Our precip chances will increase
accordingly, but for now only into the chance range for Sunday,
and then above climo for Monday. For this package, that comes out
to be a 60/50 mtns/Piedmont split, but one can easily imagine
widespread shower activity with the pattern shown by the model
consensus. The increased cloudiness and precip coverage should
bring temps back down below normal for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR cigs holding on outside of the mountains
longer than expected likely due to the trapping inversion being
stronger than expected. The cigs should lift to low VFR if not
scattering out by 20Z. Instability already high over the mountains
where skies have cleared. CAMs still show convection initiating near
the Blue Ridge then moving SSE across the area. Have TEMPOs in place
based on latest timing. That said...timing could be off by an hour
or so on either end. VFR expected once the convection clears until
closer to daybreak where fog develops for all but KCLT. It will be
possible there, but confidence low for now. Mainly MVFR but IFR
likely at KAVL and possible at KHKY/KAND. Restrictions should burn
off closer to a more normal time. Light SW wind, NW at KAVL, this
afternoon and evening. W to N wind develops Tuesday.

Outlook: Another cold front will arrive from the north by mid-week,
bringing increased shower and thunderstorm chances and associated
restrictions. Drier high pressure returns by the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
421 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ101>103-062030-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
421 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina,
Piedmont North Carolina, and the mountains of northeast Georgia and
Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area late this
afternoon through this evening. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning
will be possible with any thunderstorm. A few of the storms may
produce severe weather in the form of damaging winds and quarter-
sized, or larger, hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-062030-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
421 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and Upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area late this
afternoon through this evening, possibly lingering into the early
overnight hours in the southern Piedmont. Dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning will be possible with any thunderstorm. A few of the storms
may produce severe weather in the form of damaging winds and
quarter-sized, or larger, hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms again will be possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening. A few instances of wind damage and large hail
also could occur from these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
336 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

GAZ010-052000-
Rabun GA-
336 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Rabun
County through 400 PM EDT...

At 335 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Clayton, or 4 miles southwest of Tiger, moving
south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lakemont, Lake Rabun, Tallulah Falls, Tallulah Gorge State Park and
Seed Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 8355 3485 8347 3474 8338 3473 8341
      3475 8343 3473 8345 3473 8351 3474 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 341DEG 5KT 3481 8349

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

cP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
403 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

GAZ010-017-052030-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-
403 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Habersham and southwestern Rabun Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Clayton, or near Lake Burton, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tiger, Lakemont, Lake Rabun, Lake Burton, Tallulah Falls and Seed
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 8356 3488 8343 3473 8340 3470 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 354DEG 13KT 3485 8351

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

cP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
508 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

GAZ017-018-052145-
Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
508 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Stephens and
southeastern Habersham Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 508 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Clarkesville, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toccoa, Clarkesville, Mount Airy, Hollywood, Boydville and
Eastanolee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8338 3449 8325 3447 8342 3449 8349
      3464 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 343DEG 12KT 3462 8345

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

cP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
520 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

NCZ063-064-SCZ102-052145-
Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
520 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Transylvania and southeastern Jackson Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles west of Brevard, or near Lake Toxaway, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Toxaway, Gorges State Park, Lake Jocassee, Jocassee Gorges,
Sapphire and Wolf Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 8292 3507 8279 3503 8291 3504 8292
      3505 8290 3505 8291 3504 8293 3503 8300
      3519 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 343DEG 12KT 3516 8300

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

cP