A warm front shifting north through the region along with a mid-level shortwave arriving from the west encountered a moderately unstable atmosphere, leading to severe thunderstorms across southeast Georgia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CHS wrote it up.
A warm front shifting north through the region along with a mid-level shortwave arriving from the west encountered a moderately unstable atmosphere, leading to severe thunderstorms across southeast Georgia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 11, 11:57 AM EST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1257 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift northward through the region today, followed by a cold front advancing into the region Monday into Tuesday. The front could linger across the region through much of the week before shifting offshore next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low level convergence axis is currently maximized from near Lake Moultrie south down through the SE Georgia coast where convection has initiated in the last hour or so. That seems to be where convection will largely be focused this afternoon with perhaps some inland push along the sea breeze. Plan to re- orient PoPs accordingly. Previous discussion... Warm front appears to bisect southeast SC this morning stretching from near Walterboro to near Charleston and off the coast. Still getting a few precip radar "blips" along the advancing boundary although likely not much more than sprinkles. Axis of deeper moisture and instability continues to spread into the SE and Gulf Coast states with a decent amount (1-2K J/Kg) of MUCAPE across the region. Upstream, sharp short-wave trough is pressing into the western KY/TN region with a couple of pronounced vorticity maxima pinwheeling through that region. Strongest forcing acting on the available instability is producing a decent coverage of showers/storms across northern GA. Convective initiation and coverage remains the biggest forecast challenge for today. Warm front will continue to advance up through the region by afternoon. Higher dewpoint air will follow, although daytime heating and mixing will likely knock dewpoints back into the middle to upper 60s...a touch higher along the coast with the southeasterly flow. With further heating, model guidance and forecast soundings suggest 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE developing this afternoon, and perhaps as much of 2K J/kg along the coast. Stronger larger scale synoptic forcing will remain to our west although there will be some increasing QG-forcing for ascent sneaking in from the west as we go through the afternoon. Combination of sea breeze development and increasing synoptic scale forcing should kick off showers and thunderstorms across our area after 17Z and persist into the early to mid evening timeframe. Still appears that the best coverage of precip and highest QPF amounts will largely occur along and west of the I-95 corridor... with convective development following the inland penetrating sea breeze. Will have to keep an eye out for persistent heavy rainfall through the afternoon and into the evening for flood Advisory possibilities, although SPC HREF 3-hour probs for >3 inches has diminished to 10 percent or less with the 12Z run. During the evening hours, the convection is expected to shift over the Atlantic and gradually dissipate, especially after sunset. However, a mature MCS should be pushing rapidly SE across northern GA and the Upstate of SC by late this evening. This convection should have a well established cold pool and should track toward the coast through the night. Based on the latest guidance, this second round may reach our inland GA/SC during the pre-dawn hours. The convection should weaken as it nears the CWA, but should at least maintain some lightning. PoP values will range from CHC to SCHC across the inland counties. Low temperatures are forecast to favor values around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday: Aloft, mid-lvl shortwave energy will traverse the Southeast United States along the southern periphery of a mid-lvl low centered across the Great Lakes region. At the sfc, a cold front will advance toward the local area, favoring scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia. There is some potential for convection to become more organized as modest wind fields and forcing associated with the front and h5 shortwave energy encounter an environment displaying bulk shear around 30 kt, SBCAPE around 2500 J/kg, PWATs near 1.75 inches, and low-lvl lapse rates around 8.0 C/km. A Marginal Risk for severe weather has been placed across the entire area with damaging winds and brief heavy rainfall being the primary concerns with stronger thunderstorms. Expect the bulk of precip activity to shift offshore by the evening and the loss of diurnal heating to bring an end to severe weather potential. Highs should range in the mid-upper 80s across most areas with a few locations touching 90 degrees across southeast Georgia. Overnight lows should range in the mid- upper 60s inland to lower 70s closer to the coast. Tuesday and Wednesday: Conditions should start off a few degrees cooler and drier behind a cold front heading into mid-week. The position of a mid-lvl low centered across the Great Lakes region will be slow to drift east, favoring a series of h5 shortwave energy traversing the Southeast United States each day. Mid-lvl forcing, sfc heating, and some moisture return to the region should be sufficient to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms locally on Tuesday with the bulk of activity along/near a stalled front potentially draped across the area. By Wednesday, guidance suggests shower/thunderstorm coverage to expand across the local area, likely due to greater moisture supply and some enhancement to large scale troughing associated with the mid-lvl low drifting east toward the Northeast United States. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are currently in the forecast for the day. A few stronger and/or isolated severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out. Highs should range in the mid-upper 80s across most areas each day. Lows should range in the mid-upper 60s inland to lower 70s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A mid-lvl low slowly tracking across to the Northeast United States will gradually transition to more of an open wave trough, extending across much of the Eastern CONUS late week. As the process occurs, shortwave energy will ripple across the Southeast United States, encountering a fairly warm/moist environment and a lingering sfc front residing near the region. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/thunderstorms are possible each day, and an isolated strong/severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out each afternoon or evening. High temps should remain within a few degrees of normal, ranging in the upper 80s to lower 90 degrees away from the coast. Overnight lows should range in the mid-upper 60s inland to low-mid 70s near the coast, gradually becoming more mild during the weekend as high pressure builds across the South-Central United States. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Narrow line of showers and some thunderstorms have initiated along the I-95 corridor over the last hour or so. Showers and storms should continue to expand through the afternoon and likely impact the terminals from mid afternoon into the evening hours. Exact timing remains difficult to peg. But 20Z through 01Z is likely the main window for impacts. Convection will wane later this evening. There will be additional showers and storms developing west of the region today with some of that convection making a run toward the SE coast late tonight into Monday morning. However, confidence is too low to include any precip mention at the terminals at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Increasing chances of flight restrictions are likely at the terminals on Monday as showers/thunderstorms occur along a cold front. VFR conditions should prevail early Tuesday with a more limited risk of flight restrictions during the afternoon, but chances for flight restrictions increase once again Wednesday and Thursday during diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A warm front will lift across the marine zones this morning. Winds are forecast to favor a direction from the south, speeds ranging between 10 to 15 kts. Seas are forecast to range from 2 to 3 ft. Tonight, winds will veer from the southwest and increase to around 15 kts as a cold front swings across the southern Appalachians. Seas are expected to increase to around 3 ft by late tonight. Monday through Thursday: The pressure gradient is anticipated to tighten across the region on Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. Southerly winds could gust near 20-25 kt for a few hours ahead/near the front late day into early evening, supporting marginal Small Craft Advisory level conditions across northern South Carolina waters. Seas should also build up to 3-4 ft, highest beyond 10 miles off the coast of Charleston County and across offshore Georgia waters. Conditions are then expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels as the cold front stalls over or near the area into the middle of the week. Southwest winds should peak between 15- 20 kt heading into the middle of the week while seas are no larger than 3-5 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && NEAR TERM...Adam SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION...Adam/DPB MARINE...DPB/NED
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston SC 600 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>052-121000- Charleston Harbor- Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM- Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM- Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans- Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long- Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh- Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley- Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper- Tidal Berkeley- 600 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters, southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
304 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023
GAZ099-100-111930-
Bulloch-Candler-
304 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BULLOCH AND CANDLER
COUNTIES...
At 304 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Stillmore, or 7 miles west of Metter, moving
northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph, up to penny sized hail and
excessive cloud to ground lightning.
SOURCE...Radar Indicated.
IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move indoors
immediately.
Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Metter and Aline.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.
&&
LAT...LON 3242 8220 3244 8219 3247 8218 3252 8215
3256 8209 3254 8203 3259 8201 3243 8185
3233 8221 3238 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 238DEG 21KT 3242 8219
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPHThe Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 87 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:20 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Jenkins County 911 Call Center reported one tree down on Parks Road in Millen, Georgia.
The Screven County Warning Point reported multiple trees down on Bascom Road near Country Club Road.
The Effingham County Warning Point reported a couple of trees down at the 400 block of Shawnee Egypt Road and one tree down at the 1500 Block of Green Morgan School Road.
The Bryan County 911 Call Center reported a tree down in Richmond Hill.
The pubic reported tree tops broken off and limbs down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1112124, 1112125, 1112126, 1112127, 1112128.