Hail in Georgia, June 11, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
745 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will continue to lift north across Virginia this
evening as a cold front approaches from the west tonight. These
features will lead to showers and thunderstorms into tonight, with a
few potentially becoming strong to severe. The cold front will track
across the area on Monday, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances
around, especially for the Piedmont. Brief drying returns Monday
evening into early Tuesday, before unsettled weather returns for the
rest of the workweek into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
600 PM Update...A rain shield continues to exit the FA to the east
with little fanfare as convection has waned considerably.
Differential heating behind the system has resulted in some
rebounding of temps yet not enuf to offset the higher temp curve in
the fcst. So, have adj/d hr/ly temps down a few degrees, esp across
the ern zones. Still anticipate another round of showers and
thunderstorms swinging around a closed low to enter the sw/rn NC
mtns and NE GA btw 00z-01z. This activity will likely remain semi-
organized producing periods of heavy rainfall within pockets of deep
convection and gusty winds as the entire system remains progressive
and reaches the I-77 corridor arnd 07z. Currently, any flooding
threat looks to remain low-end and isol at best due to the rather
quick storm motion and the higher rainfall amts likely occurring over
areas that are not normally prone to efficient flash flooding.

As of 215 pm EDT Sunday: Water vapor imagery shows a swirl of low
pressure over the lower Ohio River Valley this afternoon, developing
within the trough of falling heights from the Great Lakes region to
the mid-Mississippi River Valley. The first spoke of vorticity
ejecting east of this trough axis is already pushing a band of heavy
showers and thunderstorms through our region. This is saturating the
ground but also complicating the instability forecast for the
nighttime hours. The next round of upper vorticity and improving
upper jetlet support will likely cross the Smokies mid evening and
then drive thunderstorm redevelopment into the foothills and the
Piedmont for the late evening and overnight hours. The region will
be solidly warm sector by this point, with a lifting warm front to
the north and an approaching cold front moving from the Ohio Valley
to the southern Appalachians. This will herald the reemergence of
categorical PoPs in western sections to high likely PoPs east
overnight. Wind shear will experience an uptick through the
nighttime hours, with sfc to 3 km bulk shear likely peaking around
35 kt by 09Z. However, the nocturnal timing and uncertain recovery
from the earlier activity makes the severe potential muddled. The
current Slight west to Marginal east severe outlook makes sense for
primarily wind and secondarily hail threats. The hydro threat will
be hard to pin down as well. Rain showers today have been efficient,
but steering flow will improve and training will be needed to
achieve flooding given the antecedent (prior to today) dry
conditions. The current thinking is that flooding will be isolated.
Mild mins will run 1 to 2 categories above climatology.

Upper shortwave energy will then pull away to the northeast on
Monday, with the cyclonic flow aloft flattening out somewhat through
the day. Anticipate a midday fropa, with drying from the west and
downsloping aiding drying for foothill sections Monday afternoon.
Cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms redeveloping over the
Piedmont along the immediate cold front in the early to middle part
of the afternoon. Winds will turn westerly and gusts will increase
with fropa. Temps will max out a category below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 212 PM EDT Sunday: By late Monday evening, the latest
guidance is in reasonable agreement that a surface cold front will
have shifted nearly, if not entirely, east of the I-77 corridor.
The short term will thus remain dominated by the influence of a
robust upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and migrating east.
We'll be on the periphery of this low for most of the period...with
swift flow aloft as flow accelerates around this low.  It'll get
more complicated by late Tuesday, as a deepening anticyclonic
circulation over the Chihuahua / Durango regions of Mexico sets
up essentially a split-flow pattern aloft.  The result is a
less-predictable-than-usual atmosphere...with the GEFS still
leaning toward a drier Tuesday, but the GEPS and ECE trending
toward wetter conditions on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  As it
stands currently, some thunder is possible on Tuesday evening, but
ought to be mainly elevated since surface-based instability will be
limited, and good synoptic forcing will likely arrive too late to
steepen lapse rates in time to catch the diurnal instability max.
None of this should be taken as gospel, however, as this is the
sort of pattern where small changes will outpace the guidance
almost as quickly as they'll outpace my overtaxed brain cells.

These discrepancies only magnify at longer timescales.  Most of
the guidance that produces a stronger, faster moving shortwave
on Tuesday also does a better job clearing out moisture for
Wednesday...resulting in a drier forecast.  However, the guidance
that's slower-moving on Tuesday is simply holding the moisture at
bay longer, resulting in its arrival on Wednesday.  For now...went
with a consensus forecast and allowed rain chances to ramp up
starting mid/late Tuesday afternoon (since the new NBM is markedly
faster than virtually any of the other guidance), peaking overnight
into Wednesday...then allowed for some drying on Wednesday given
that's the solution favored by the Canadian and European ensembles.
Although exactly temperatures will hinge on the timing of rainfall,
highs are on track to stay within a category of normal both Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 232 PM EDT Sunday: An active pattern will remain in place for
much of the extended as the upper low drifts off the New England
coast and successive embedded shortwave troughs rotate across the
Deep South.  Rain chances are expected to return by Wednesday
night or early Thursday morning as one such shortwave lifts
skirts the forecast area...and this kind of on-and-of pattern of
associated rain and thunder through the first part of the weekend.
A majority of the guidance depicts an especially vigorous shortwave
drifting out of the Ozarks on Friday afternoon/evening...resulting
in weak cyclogenesis over the Upper Mississippi Valley overnight
and amplified rainfall over the Carolinas Saturday (this "majority"
once again refers to the bulk of the ECE/GEPS members, while the
GFS and its ensemble are off on an unrelated side quest...much like
my attention span).  Thereafter, models hint at some improvement
as a broad, CONUS-spanning ridge begins to build, resulting in
drier and warmer weather to cap off the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An active TAF set in the works as an upper
low brings a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the
area thru the overnight. Expect lowering CIGs and VSBY with the
heavier convection with most sites dropping to IFR or lower aft 07z
thru daybreak. Lingering IFR/MVFR will persist into mid-morning with
a gradual return to VFR conds by Mon afternoon. Winds with low to
moderate gusts will remain aligned sw/ly outside the mtns with a
nw/ly wind shift likely aft 19z as a cold front crosses to the
southeast. Winds at KAVL will remain aligned nw/ly thru the period.

Outlook: The passing cold front will settle just south of the region
Monday night into Tuesday. Brief drying is expected following the
frontal passage, but unsettled conditions may return over the region
through mid-week if the boundary stalls nearby and moisture slides
east along the front later Tuesday through Thursday as currently
expected.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/SBK
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>508-SCZ008-009-
012>014-019-122000-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Cherokee-York-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A cold front will approach the area out of the west this evening,
and into the overnight hours, bringing a second round of showers and
thunderstorms. The main potential hazards with any storms that become
severe are isolated damaging wind gusts, cloud-to-ground lightning,
and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-509-510-
SCZ010-011-101>109-122000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Anderson-Abbeville-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A cold front will approach the area out of the west this evening,
and into the overnight hours, bringing a second round of showers and
thunderstorms. The main potential hazards with any storms that become
severe are damaging wind gusts, large hail, cloud-to-ground
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
757 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

GAZ017-018-120030-
Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
757 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Stephens and southern Habersham Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 757 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Clarkesville, or near Alto, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Mount Airy, Alto, Raoul and Boydville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 8366 3464 8340 3450 8331 3447 8342
      3448 8347 3449 8354 3446 8358 3445 8359
      3445 8360 3443 8362 3450 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 244DEG 28KT 3447 8361

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LANE