A line of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms moved across northeast Georgia during the afternoon and evening in advance of a cold front. Embedded severe thunderstorms resulted in isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
A line of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms moved across northeast Georgia during the afternoon and evening in advance of a cold front. Embedded severe thunderstorms resulted in isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 12, 2:45 PM EST, 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the area this evening
bringing rain and thunderstorms. Canadian high pressure will
build in behind the front on Friday and linger through the
weekend. A moist cold front will likely bring more precipitation
to our area on Tuesday, with high pressure briefly returning
on Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 238 PM EST Thursday: The big weather-maker is almost here.
GOES imagery depicts a potent upper low drifting across the
Tennessee Valley, supporting a cold front and organized line of
convection stretching from the eastern Tennessee Valley south
into central AL and GA. Widespread lightning, gusty outflows, and
pockets of embedded rotation have been noted in this system so far.
As for our CWA - notably lower values of sbCAPE are analyzed over
most of the region, with the exception of NE GA and the extreme
western Upstate; shear is on the rise as a screaming 55-60kt
low-level jet creeps into the western zones...and convection is
already pressing into the southwestern NC mountains. What is left
of an in situ wedge from this morning's upglide regime is rapidly
breaking down and giving way to solidly warm-sector air across
the Piedmont/Upstate ahead of the advancing cold front and QLCS.
A few supercellular-looking cells have cropped up well south of our
forecast area...indicating that the anticipated discrete convection
is beginning where a capping inversion has been overcome.
Lapse rates will continue to improve as the LLJ enters the forecast
area in full force and increasingly potent upper forcing arrives
in the form of excellent DPVA coupled to a bullseye in upper
divergence. A solid 2kft mixed layer develops across the Upstate
and Piedmont zones. In response, instability will skyrocket -
the CAM consensus as well as many of the more aggressive SREF
and NARRE ensemble members indicate that the 250-500 J/kg sbCAPE
values currently analyzed over the Upstate may only be the tip
of the iceberg. Moreover, the LLJ will support deep-layer shear
values in excess of 60 kts...with the limiting factor being
orientation; the QLCS thus far has a SW-to-NE orientation, and
several guidance sources indicate that bulk shear vectors will
wind up nearly parallel to the main line. Also, the newest RAP and
HRRR cycles have depicted increasingly straight hodographs...which
are unfavorable for QLCS tornadoes. The environment is not quite
as conducive, therefore, to rotation as that of the Deep South.
Nonetheless, the system has somewhat overproduced upstream in terms
of rotation, so should instability and shear hold up as it enters
the Carolinas, we can almost certainly anticipated some rotating
segments of our own, possibly including some short-track tornadoes.
0-1km SRH values in excess of 300 m2/s2 and the resulting STPs in
excess of 1.5 across the Upstate demonstrate the potential for
continuing tornadic activity as well as gusty damaging winds.
A passing chance remains that a shallow supercell could crop up
over the far southern Upstate - the 12z HREF's updraft helicity
stripes have been trending more and more dire across most of the
Upstate, after all - but this is almost entirely dependent on
the environment overcoming a stout capping inversion. And, given
that the QLCS is at least keeping up with, if not outrunning the
existing synoptic forcing, there's low confidence on any discrete
convection getting itself together before the main line arrives.
That is to say, widespread rainfall with lots of associated
lightning and thunder is a near certainty; many of these storms
may become strong to severe. The greatest threat appears to be
damaging winds in areas where the organized convection outruns
the main line, as well as weak, short-track tornadoes. As stated
above, the risk of any supercellular convection remains low; most
if not all rotation will likely be observed embedded within the
advancing QLCS.
Tonight, focus shifts to potential wintry impacts in the mountains.
As the cold front sweeps across the forecast area, winds across
the Appalachians will rapidly shift NWly and residual deep-layer
moisture will linger long enough for some snow showers in the
upslope zones along the NC-TN border. Accumulations look fairly
light for tonight and into tomorrow morning. However...stout
NW flow appears to continue through the day tomorrow, with
an increasingly convincing Great Lakes connection based on GFS
trajectories. Ripples of upper vort energy will descend down the
back end of the departing longwave trough axis Friday afternoon and
evening...and the GFS/NAM as well as the RDPS depict 30-60 J/kg
sbCAPE developing over the Balsams and Smokies Friday evening.
This is accompanied by a widespread area of snow squall parameter
values of 1.5-2 across the entire Appalachians and maximized over
the Balsams. Therefore, with ample low-level moisture likely still
in place Friday evening and overnight, there could be periods
of heavier snowfall where favorable upslope forcing intersects
good instability, and so accumulations have trended slightly
upward at the higher elevations along the NC-TN border counties.
The existing elevation-dependent Winter Weather Advisory / Winter
Storm Warning for those counties has not been modified, and will
still begin at midnight tonight to run through Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday: The short-term forecast picks up at 12z
on Saturday with broad upper trofing centered over the Eastern
Seaboard and steep upper ridging to the west. By early Sunday,
the trof axis will begin to move off the Atlantic Coast and upper
ridging will build in its wake. At the sfc, broad Canadian high
pressure will be spreading over our region from the NW as the
period begins early Saturday. NW flow will eventually weaken
late Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes and the center
of high pressure drifts further east. Low-lvl moisture, however,
is expected to steadily dwindle early Saturday, and any lingering
NW flow snow showers should taper off Saturday morning, but we
could see a few flurries linger into the early afternoon along
the NC/TN border. Gusty winds will continue across the area thru
the day and eventually taper off Saturday night. The center of
the sfc high will move over our area on Sunday bringing dry wx
and near-normal temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z on
Monday with broad and deep upper trofing moving further off the
Atlantic Coast and upper ridging building over the Southeast in
its wake. On Monday, an embedded, southern-stream upper trof will
lift out of the southern Plains and ride up the ridge. The latest
guidance still has the trof axis passing to our north on Tuesday
and moving offshore by early Wed. As it does, the upper ridge will
amplify over the Southeast again and remain in place into Thurs.
As the period is ending on Thurs, another southern-stream embedded
upper trof will lift out of the SW CONUS and towards our region.
At the sfc, broad Canadian high pressure will be slowly moving
offshore on Monday as another cold front approaches from the west.
The front is still expected to move thru our fcst area on Tuesday
and be east of our CWA by late Tues/early Wed with brief drying
behind the front. A stronger cold front is expected to approach
our fcst area early Thursday as the period is ending. As for the
sensible fcst, no significant changes were needed with dry wx
on Monday and precipitation chances ramping up by early Tuesday.
Thunderstorm potential still appears minimal at best for the fropa
on Tuesday with little (if any) instability present over our area.
PoPs have increased marginally for Wed, but if any precip does
materialize, QPF should be minimal. Otherwise, temps will steadily
warm thru the period with values well-above climatology by mid-
week.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: It's the calm before the storm this
afternoon. The western part of the forecast area remains socked
into a weak in situ wedge, resulting in a narrow corridor of IFR
cigs and fog roughly aligned with I-85 south of the NC/SC border.
In general...restrictions are beginning to lift as that residual
wedging begins to scatter out. West of the forecast area, an
organized line of convection is pushing across the Mississippi
Valley and should impact all the terminals later this afternoon.
High confidence on some embedded TS along with scattered +SHRA
associated with this system. The Upstate sites in particular are
likely to experience 25-30kt gusts as the line pushes through...and
ahead of the line some isolated areas of southerly LLWS are possible
as a robust low-level jet crosses the area. Behind the line, a
cold front will sweep across the Carolinas and allow a wind shift
to W/NW overnight. The ensuing gusty winds will mainly affect
the mountains...with mentionable gusts at KAVL and KHKY overnight.
Can't rule out some isolated areas of fog developing in sheltered
parts of the mountains, but in general winds look to be too strong
to support much fog. Instead, clouds will slowly scatter out during
the overnight hours (with poor agreement among guidance sources
on how quickly this will occur) and give way to a generally clear
and dry day Friday.
Outlook: Dry high pressure builds in for the weekend, with limited
fog chances each morning in mountain valleys. The next chance for
active weather and associated restrictions will come late Monday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet from midnight tonight to
7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-048>052-058.
Winter Weather Advisory below 3500 feet from midnight tonight
to 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-048>052-058.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...MPRHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 350 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-053-056-057-059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-131000- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell- Davie-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains- Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk- Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville- Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg- 350 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A strong cold front will bring some strong to severe storms to the region this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be from locally damaging wind gusts, along with isolated brief tornadoes. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. NCZ033-048>052-058-131000- Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham- 350 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY BELOW 3500 FEET... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. Winter Weather Advisory. A strong cold front will bring some strong to severe storms to the region this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be from locally damaging wind gusts, but an isolated brief tornado can't be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather and snow to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
131 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-121915-
Haywood NC-Graham NC-Swain NC-Madison NC-Northern Jackson NC-
Macon NC-
131 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Macon,
northwestern Jackson, southwestern Madison, Swain, Graham and
northern Haywood Counties through 215 PM EST...
At 130 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Newport to 9 miles east of Gatlinburg to
near Andrews. Movement was east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Sylva, Bryson City,
Robbinsville, Waynesville, Cherokee, Cullowhee, Lake Junaluska,
Maggie Valley, Hot Springs and Balsam.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3557 8366 3556 8350 3566 8335 3566 8330
3576 8316 3578 8299 3588 8290 3594 8290
3592 8282 3597 8278 3597 8267 3570 8280
3568 8289 3563 8286 3524 8324 3520 8373
3523 8369 3526 8379 3522 8396 3523 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 267DEG 33KT 3593 8320 3569 8333 3522 8379
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
LANESpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
248 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
NCZ033-048>050-053-501-503-505-122030-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Caldwell Mountains NC-
Burke Mountains NC-Avery NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
248 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central McDowell,
southeastern Madison, Mitchell, northwestern Caldwell, Avery,
northern Buncombe, Yancey and northwestern Burke Counties through 330
PM EST...
At 248 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northwest of Beech Mountain to 6 miles
northeast of Burnsville to 4 miles west of Downtown Asheville.
Movement was east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Spruce Pine, Burnsville, Newland, Weaverville, Mars Hill, Banner Elk,
Elk Park, Bakersville, Beech Mountain In Avery County and Crossnore.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3627 8189 3623 8191 3621 8190 3619 8188
3619 8186 3616 8183 3611 8181 3612 8167
3599 8172 3564 8223 3568 8279 3615 8216
3615 8214 3611 8213 3610 8208 3613 8205
3612 8203 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 265DEG 31KT 3627 8197 3596 8219 3562 8262
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
LANEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE WHITEROCK 35.98N 82.69W
01/12/2023 MADISON NC 911 CALL CENTER
TINY HOME KNOCKED OF ITS BASE OFF OF NC-212
AND MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS
MADISON COUNTY.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
315 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
NCZ033-049-050-053-501>506-122045-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Caldwell Mountains NC-
Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
315 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of McDowell,
southeastern Mitchell, Caldwell, southern Avery, east central
Buncombe, southeastern Yancey and western Burke Counties through 345
PM EST...
At 315 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Foscoe to 13 miles east of Downtown
Asheville. Movement was east at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Lenoir, Marion, Spruce Pine, Newland, Morganton, Black Mountain,
Swannanoa, Gamewell, Blowing Rock In Caldwell County and Glen Alpine.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3616 8183 3611 8181 3612 8169 3612 8155
3610 8152 3610 8150 3609 8147 3609 8145
3607 8144 3607 8141 3605 8139 3604 8140
3604 8138 3561 8185 3560 8247 3618 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 263DEG 43KT 3620 8175 3567 8233
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
WJMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
GAZ010-017-SCZ101-104-122045-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
319 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Habersham,
Rabun and northwestern Oconee Counties through 345 PM EST...
At 319 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Clarkesville, or 5 miles southwest of Lake Burton,
moving east at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Westminster, Mountain City, Tiger, Tallulah Falls, Lake
Rabun, Lake Burton, Lakemont, Tallulah Gorge State Park and Oconee
State Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3482 8365 3485 8366 3500 8310 3464 8307
3466 8329 3467 8331 3468 8334 3469 8334
3468 8336 3466 8337 3468 8364 3471 8364
3473 8362 3476 8363 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 263DEG 43KT 3476 8360
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
WJMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
NCZ053-065-505-507-122115-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Henderson NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-
337 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
McDowell, northwestern Rutherford, northern Henderson and
southeastern Buncombe Counties through 415 PM EST...
At 337 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Hendersonville, or near Mills River, moving
northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, East Asheville, Arden, Black Mountain, Mills
River, Fletcher, Swannanoa, Fairview In Buncombe County, Biltmore
Forest and Bent Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3573 8229 3571 8228 3570 8228 3570 8227
3551 8210 3544 8215 3535 8267 3537 8269
3547 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 246DEG 41KT 3542 8262
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
WJMThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter and the public reported between quarter and half-dollar sized hail near Clayton. Some roads were covered.
Fire dept reported more than a dozen trees blown down, along with snapped power lines and a brick retaining wall blown over.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1079284, 1079285.