Excessive Heat in Georgia, August 7 to 8, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
702 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

A shortwave moving eastward across the Great Lakes region will
provide the upper-level forcing for some scattered showers, and
possibly some strong storms, across SE Alabama and SW Georgia.
Across our Florida counties the usual sea breeze will help aid in
the forcing for convection. With plenty diurnal instability and
moisture in place across the region, a typical summer afternoon
awaits. Activity winds down after sunset with the possibility of
patchy fog tonight in areas that receive precip. Otherwise, high
heat indices continue today, with feel-like temps across the region
surpassing 110 degrees this afternoon.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The dog days of summer continue; however, the forecast is a bit
tricky in terms of heat for the middle portion of the week.
Tuesday in particular, high temperatures are forecast to be in the
mid to upper 90s with heat index values ranging from 110 to 115
perhaps locally higher. As a result, opted to go with an Excessive
Heat Watch for all of the area, though it's not a slam dunk
conversion from watch to warning. This is due to a shortwave
skirting across the SE which is expected to form an MCS to our
west. Convection and cloud cover could limit peak temperatures,
pending how fast it forms and spreads. Current thinking is that
thunderstorm activity should be confined to the late afternoon and
evening hours. SPC has placed our GA and AL counties in a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather and our northern FL
counties along and just south of I-10 into a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for severe weather. Strong to severe storms will be
possible with damaging winds and heavy rainfall being the primary
threats.

Wednesday the forecast highs should be a few degrees lower, and in
the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will still be toasty and in
the 100 to 110 degree range. There's some model variation for this
day, with showers and thunderstorms being possible due to an MCS
or typical diurnal activity. Opted to keep NBM PoPs to cover model
uncertainty.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Cluster analysis shows upper level ridging to near zonal flow over
the period. Expect high temperatures to generally be in the mid to
upper 90s and heat index values to range from 100 to 112. Each day
will have a shot at showers and thunderstorms capable of producing
heavy rain and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

MVFR conditions at VLD are expected to improve throughout the
morning to VFR with VCTS expected at DHN/ABY/VLD/TLH this
afternoon and evening. Patchy fog may be possible tomorrow across
DHN and ABY, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs
this cycle. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Generally light to moderate west to southwest breezes are expected
to prevail across the coastal waters through the next week,
keeping seas generally two feet or less. Nearshore waters from the
Okaloosa County line to Apalachicola could see fresh breezes, but
should be infrequent enough to stay out of Exercise Caution
criteria. Scattered thunderstorms may lead to locally higher winds
and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Summer-like pattern continues today with high temps and high
moisture. Thunderstorm coverage isn't expected to be widespread
today, but is expected on Tuesday. Outside of erratic winds
associated with thunderstorms, there are currently no fire weather
concerns. Heat indices across the region will peak at or above 110
degrees today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Rainfall amounts over the next few days are generally around 1.50
or less. Localized flooding will be possible with any stronger
thunderstorm that develops.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  78  97  76 /  40  10  60  20
Panama City   92  82  92  80 /  20   0  50  20
Dothan        97  77  94  74 /  30  10  70  20
Albany        96  76  94  74 /  30  20  60  20
Valdosta      97  76  96  74 /  30  20  50  20
Cross City    94  79  95  77 /  30  10  40  10
Apalachicola  92  82  92  80 /  30   0  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
     to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-
     034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-
     128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     through this evening for FLZ114.

GA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for GAZ155>161.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ120>131-142>148.

AL...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for ALZ065>069.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...KR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1003 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Amboy             31.83N 83.61W
08/06/2023                   Turner             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Turner County EM reports several large trees
            down including two large oaks near Calhoun
            Produce.

&&