What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 24, 1:29 PM EST, 55 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 24, 1:29 PM EST, 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The heat will build through the end of the week as a large
upper high over the Plains continues to control our weather from
afar. High temperatures may flirt with records Friday and Saturday,
although there is much uncertainty about how much thunderstorm
activity will affect that. A surface cold front is expected to drop
south across the region late Saturday to cool us down for the early
part of next week, while providing a focus for showers and storms
from Sunday through Tuesday with the front settling just south of
our area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 222 PM EDT Thursday: The first rounds of convection have begun
across the NC mountains, in a pattern that looks concerningly close
to the NSSL-WRF's solution for this afternoon. We're now squarely
on the edge of a retreating 595dm anticyclone over the Great Plains,
which places us squarely in the favorable corridor for some MCS
action over the near term. Upstream, convection is streaming into
the Tennessee Valley after a long day of uncertain behavior.
Models have struggled all day with the afternoon forecast.
There's improving agreement that convection will increase in
coverage over the mountains over the next couple hours, losing
some steam as it pushes east into the SC Upstate...an environment
with significantly less instability and a notable cap in forecast
soundings (and the latest observed soundings, too). The severe
risk for the mountains is nonzero - with a handful of SPSs already
issued, and an environment ripe with DCAPE and marginal for bulk
shear, the severe potential looks reasonably high; SPC's Marginal
Risk for Severe Weather appears well-placed...with wind the primary
threat. What's more questionable is the possibility for a second
round of convection later this evening over the I-77 corridor.
The 12z HREF came in with almost all its fresh members depicting
a round of showers popping up along a residual boundary in the
vicinity of Charlotte, then traveling south into the SC Piedmont.
By this time though...forecast soundings aren't looking great
in terms of instability (the latest 16z HRRR, for example,
depicts some 45 J/kg sbCAPE ahead of the developing showers).
So, it's unclear if any robust updrafts will be able to develop.
Otherwise...the temperature forecast was on track to begin with,
so still expect highs to top out in the low- to mid-90s east of
the mountains.
Tonight, convection should fizzle out with the loss of daytime
heating. Mostly clear skies are expected (with the caveat that
if convection overproduces, there'll be some debris / high cloud
cover the first half of the night). Lows are expected to remain a
category above normal virtually everywhere. Some mountain valley
fog is expected, with higher confidence than this morning owing to
modestly higher dewpoints. This should quickly scatter out come
daybreak, leading into a mostly dry day Friday. CAMs have backed
off on any MCS intrusion into the Carolinas tomorrow...with the
NAMnest still depicting a dying MCS arriving late Friday morning in
the northern NC mountains, but the other CAMs dry through the day.
Of perhaps greater concern will be tomorrow's heat: with high temps
climbing into the upper 90s, and dewpoints at least in the lower
70s...heat index values will climb to just shy of heat advisory
criteria, making for an uncomfortable, if sub-advisory, afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: As we move into the short term on Friday
night, the upper ridge will still be in control of the Southern
Plains, nosing into the Southeast with downsloping NW flow across
the area. Bit of a surface trough will be in place across the
Piedmont Friday night into Saturday. Guidance is in fairly good
agreement with ridiculously warm temperatures for late August on
Saturday afternoon and flirting with record highs, though a couple
of degrees below. Some question as to whether southern portions of
the CWA might make it to Heat Advisory levels but can refine that
over the next couple of days to get a better handle on dewpoint
confidence as well as try to figure out what convective debris might
be blowing over. As with previous forecast, ended up undercutting
NBM a degree or so considering CAMs are not handling afternoon
convection very well today and could be more cloud cover than
expected. Additionally, with potential mixing out of subsidence
inversion in the afternoon, increased convective chances (slight
chance Piedmont to chance mountains) would bring cloud cover on its
own.
Meanwhile, changes are brewing as the upper ridge begins to
retrograde again Saturday night into sunday and upper trough slowly
slides down from the Great Lakes, pushing a boundary across the
area. Shortwave pushes across the area Sunday afternoon and evening
with an increase of deep-layer moisture with PWs over 2" encroaching
into the area, inching close to the climatological max curve. Not
looking at a widespread heavy rain by any means, but some much-
needed rain for parts of the area for sure. High temps will be
several degrees cooler given the cloud cover and moisture, which
will usher in the pattern change for next week.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: Upper trough will continue to deepen over
the Eastern half of the country as we move into the extended. The
boundary that was in place on Sunday will still be over us as we
start the work week, with continued widespread cloud cover and
precipitation. Bit of a diurnal trend will continue with higher pops
expected in the afternoon and more of a lull overnight, but well
above climo trends expected given the very high PWs (again remaining
near climatological highs) in place and high theta-es. WPC Marginal
for Monday continues, though given the run of dry weather we've had
and drought conditions expanding across the Carolinas, flash
flooding risk is thankfully minimal at this time, but will have to
be monitored. Precip chances continue Tuesday before the system is
finally kicked out early Wednesday. ECMWF has shown hints of a
tropical system developing along the boundary but GFS not too
interested in this scenario, still plenty of time to figure that out.
Temperatures trend from above normal through the period, given the
reduced thicknesses, cloud cover and precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The forecast remains a challenge even within
the critical TAF period, as convection allowing models struggle
to come to a consensus on this afternoon's prospects for thunder.
There is reasonable agreement that a cluster of storms will develop
in the next few hours along the southern Blue Ridge Escarpment
as predicted earlier. Still some question over coverage, given
how capped the atmosphere still is in the Upstate, so went with
VCSH at the Upstate sites for the time being. There's now better
support for a band of SHRA or TS developing along the I-77 corridor;
however, it'll be past peak heating and so most of the CAMs don't
produce enough instability for good confidence on actual thunder
occuring at KCLT. Went with a potentially too-aggressive TEMPO for
TS from 00z to 22z, which reflects the decent timing agreement.
At any rate, it'll clear up before midnight, and give way to
mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. Expect another
round of mountain valley fog to impact KAVL...with slightly higher
dewpoints supporting better potential than we saw this morning.
Still anticipate dry weather tomorrow, with little expectation
for any convection.
Outlook: Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the weekend, associated with a cold front. Mountain
valley fog and low stratus will be likely around daybreak each
morning.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 08-25
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 92 1998 65 1908 69 2020 50 1952
1936 1930
1925
KCLT 98 1943 71 1927 75 1903 56 1952
1908 1880
KGSP 98 1943 72 1929 73 2000 51 1888
1968
RECORDS FOR 08-26
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 93 1943 64 1879 69 1995 49 1952
1917
KCLT 100 1954 65 1908 76 1903 55 1942
KGSP 100 1943 70 1902 75 1943 55 1917
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...MPR
CLIMATE...GSPHazardous weather outlook, Aug 24, 4:44 AM EST, 9 hours 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
544 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ101>103-
250945-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
544 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the mountains and foothills
this afternoon. Any storms that develop may have strong wind gusts
and cloud-to-ground lightning. The storm threat will subside around
sunset.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-SCZ008>014-
019-104>109-250945-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
544 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and this
evening across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and northeast Georgia.
Any storms that develop may have gusty winds and cloud-to-ground
lightning. The storm threat will end by midnight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Temperatures are expected to climb up to near record high values on
Friday afternoon, with upper 90s common east of the mountains. A
slight increase in humidity may push the apparent temperature into
the 100 to 105 range in the afternoon in some locations. A Heat
Advisory might be needed if the forecast remains unchanged.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 24, 12:46 PM EST, 1 hour 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
NCZ048-052-053-241830-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Madison NC-
146 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Madison, northeastern Haywood and southwestern Buncombe Counties
through 230 PM EDT...
At 145 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Waynesville, or 9 miles north of Clyde, moving
southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Woodfin, Canton, Leicester, Clyde, Luck, Canto, Fines Creek and
Candler.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3568 8301 3578 8288 3563 8257 3543 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 306DEG 11KT 3566 8288
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTSpecial weather statement, Aug 24, 12:53 PM EST, 1 hour 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
153 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
NCZ052-059-063-064-SCZ101-102-241845-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Southern Jackson NC-Northern Jackson NC-
Pickens Mountains SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
153 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Transylvania, southeastern Jackson, southern Haywood, northwestern
Pickens and north central Oconee Counties through 245 PM EDT...
At 153 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Sylva, or 8 miles northwest of Lake Toxaway,
moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Rosman, Lake Toxaway, Gorges State Park, Cashiers, B.R. Parkway-Black
Balsam To Mount Pisgah, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area,
Black Balsam Area, Lake Jocassee, Jocassee Gorges and Tuckasegee.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3531 8313 3538 8294 3509 8273 3508 8274
3508 8275 3507 8275 3507 8277 3506 8276
3497 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 336DEG 16KT 3524 8301
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
JPTSpecial weather statement, Aug 24, 1:59 PM EST, 25 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
259 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
GAZ010-NCZ062-063-SCZ101-241945-
Rabun GA-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-Oconee Mountains SC-
259 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Rabun,
southeastern Macon, south central Jackson and north central Oconee
Counties through 345 PM EDT...
At 259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Franklin, or 5 miles northwest of Highlands, moving
southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Highlands, Cashiers, Ellijay, Scaly Mountain, Bad Creek, Pine
Mountain, Whiteside Mountain and Cullasaja.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3518 8334 3522 8320 3497 8298 3488 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 336DEG 11KT 3513 8324
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
JPTLocal storm report, Aug 24, 2:14 PM EST, 10 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
314 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0227 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 ENE Lake Toxaway 35.15N 82.90W
08/24/2023 Transylvania NC 911 Call Center
A report of a power line down and a tree
down across Blue Ridge Road.
&&
DEO