A surface low moved across north-Florida during the early morning hours as a warm front lifted up from central FL. Strong effective shear combined with marginal surface-based instability near the lifting warm front and surface low enabled rotating mini-supercells to form.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A surface low moved across north-Florida during the early morning hours as a warm front lifted up from central FL. Strong effective shear combined with marginal surface-based instability near the lifting warm front and surface low enabled rotating mini-supercells to form. Toward sunrise, enough low-level instability nosed inland from the Atlantic coast across Flagler County to support a couple of tornado touchdowns. Locally heavy rainfall occurred across northeast Florida, generally south of the I-10 corridor and toward the Atlantic coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 11, 9:13 PM EST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1013 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023
...HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVERSPREAD OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL...
...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023
Late evening surface analysis depicts strengthening low pressure
(999 millibars) situated south of coastal Louisiana, with a warm
front extending east of this feature across the Interstate 4
corridor. Aloft...southwesterly flow continues to deepen locally
downstream of shortwave trough that was traversing the northern
Gulf coast, while stout ridging was centered over the Bahamas and
troughing was progressing from Ontario towards Quebec. Mostly
light showers continue north of the warm frontal boundary across
our region, while widespread convection was migrating eastward
across the northern and northeastern portions of the Gulf of
Mexico, with scattered convection also developing along the warm
front along the I-4 corridor. Stronger isentropic lift associated
with this lifting warm front and the upstream shortwave trough was
developing lower stratus cloudiness for locations south of
Gainesville, while mainly mid and high altitude cloudiness was
located north of the warm front across most of our area.
Temperatures and dewpoints at 02Z ranged from the lower 60s
across inland southeast GA to the low and mid 70s for north
central and coastal northeast FL.
Low pressure south of Louisiana will progress east-
northeastward towards the FL panhandle coast by sunrise on
Thursday, with this storm system's associated warm front gradually
lifting northward to a position just south of Interstate 10 during
the early morning hours. Stratiform rainfall will gradually
increase in intensity overnight across southeast GA, while
rainfall will take on a more showery and intense nature across
north central FL shortly after midnight, with downpours and
embedded thunderstorms then lifting northward in tandem with the
warm front through early Thursday morning. A low level
southwesterly jet of 50 knots will push onshore the FL Big Bend
after midnight and across the I-10 corridor and southeast GA
during the early morning hours. Helicity values will increase to
300-400 during the predawn hours in the warm sector, setting up
the potential for isolated tornadoes during the predawn and
morning hours, especially for locations from Gainesville to St.
Augustine and points southward. Strongly veering low level winds
and coastal convergence could present a slightly enhanced threat
for the I-95 corridor from St. Augustine southward, especially
during the predawn and early morning hours as the low pressure
center migrates eastward across the FL panhandle. Elevated
convection is expected early on Thursday morning for locations
along and north of I-10, with downpours exiting southeast GA and
the Suwannee Valley by the late morning hours. Temperatures
overnight will remain steady or will slowly rise, especially for
locations south of I-10.
Low pressure will weaken as it crosses the Interstate 10 corridor
and exits into the Atlantic waters by early Thursday afternoon.
Heavy downpours could continue through the mid to late afternoon
hours for locations south of I-10, where the warm front will
become stationary. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are
forecast, with locally higher totals of 3-5 inches possible
during this event. Highs on Thursday will range from around 70
across inland southeast GA to the low and mid 80s in the warm
sector across north central FL.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 827 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023
Light showers will overspread the northeast FL terminals through
04Z, with VFR conditions prevailing. Heavier showers and MVFR
conditions will then reach the GNV and SGJ terminals after 04Z,
while showers and MVFR conditions begin at SSI after 05Z.
Downpours and the potential for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms are then expected to develop near the GNV and SGJ
terminals after 07Z, with IFR conditions initially developing at
GNV around 07Z and at SGJ after 09Z. Heavier showers and IFR
conditions, with the potential for embedded thunderstorms, are
expected to overspread the Duval County terminals and SSI towards
09Z. Periods of heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms will
then impact the regional terminals throughout the morning hours on
Thursday, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
continuing at the GNV and SGJ terminals. IFR ceilings are expected
to continue throughout the day, with periods of LIFR possible,
especially during heavier downpours. Northeast to easterly surface
winds will strengthen quickly this evening, with sustained speeds
increasing to around 15 knots and gusty by 06Z. Winds will veer
after 06Z, with southerly winds sustained at 10-15 knots expected
at the northeast FL terminals towards sunrise, while northeasterly
winds around 15 knots and gusty continue at SSI. Surface winds
will then shift to north-northeasterly after 18Z, with speeds
decreasing to around 10 knots inland, but remaining in the 10-15
knot range at SSI.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023
Strengthening low pressure along the northern Gulf coast will push
eastward tonight, reaching the Florida panhandle coast by the
predawn hours. This feature will lift a warm front northward
across the northeast Florida waters by the early morning hours on
Thursday. Heavy downpours will overspread our local waters after
midnight, with strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
waterspouts possible through Thursday afternoon, especially for
the waters from St. Augustine southward. Easterly winds are
quickly strengthening late this evening, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions forecast overnight throughout our local waters. Winds
will veer to southerly across the northeast Florida waters before
sunrise. Low pressure will then weaken as it crosses our region on
Thursday morning, emerging over the Georgia waters by early
afternoon. Winds will shift to northerly and then northeasterly as
this low pressure center moves offshore, with winds and seas
diminishing by Thursday night and Friday. A frontal boundary will
linger over the northeast Florida waters on Friday and Friday
night, with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible on
Friday afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will then cross
our local waters on Saturday afternoon and evening, with breezy
northwesterly winds developing in the wake of this front on Sunday
and Sunday night.
Rip Currents: High risk continues through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 63 70 65 81 / 100 90 50 60
SSI 69 76 71 82 / 100 90 50 60
JAX 70 77 71 86 / 100 100 40 70
SGJ 74 82 73 87 / 100 80 50 70
GNV 71 82 72 88 / 100 90 50 60
OCF 74 84 74 88 / 90 80 40 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-470-472.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-454-474.
&&The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 82 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:01 UTC.
8 thunderstorm wind, 4 heavy rain, 2 tornado, 1 funnel cloud, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Daily storm total rainfall of 3.36 inches was measured about 1 mile north of St. Augustine Beach.
Since midnight, a public weather station in St. Augustine Shores measured 3.18 inches of rainfall. Other station nearby reported similar values of just over 3 inches since midnight.
A public weather station about 2 miles NW of St Augustine Beach measured 3.31 inches of rainfall since midnight.
A public station in Colee Cove measured 6.21 inches of rain since midnight.
A tree was blown down and blocked the road along State Road 21 in SW Putnam county. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was unknown but estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
A weak, sporadic tornado caused intermittent tree and minor structure damage as it track NE across the east-central part of the county. Tree damage was first reported near the intersection of County Roads 302 and 75 where several pines were snapped. Damage continued along a narrow ENE track which included a flagpole blown down in the R-section of Palm Coast at near the intersection of Rymshaw Drive and Ryman Lane. The last damage report was in Painters Hill where a resident reported a wind sail was shredded and patio furniture lofted and blown away.
The short-lived EF-2 tornado initially touched down near the Pine Lake Apartment complex, near the intersection of Belle Terre Pkwy and Pine Lakes Pkwy. The tornado traveled northeast through the B section of Palm Coast before dissipating near I-95. Several houses sustained significant roof damage in the path, particularly the home along Baltimore Lane which suffered complete destruction of its roof. A minivan was also flipped onto its side and moved from the driveway onto the road along Birchwood Drive. Several screened lanai enclosures, sheds and fences were significantly damaged or destroyed. Several trees were snapped and powerlines were downed.
A tree was blown down along County Road 75. The time of damage was based on radar.
Multiple trees were blown down around west Palm Coast including near 160 Bayside Drive.
A large tree fell across East fort king St near SE 7th Ave. Photo was relayed via social media.
Power lines were blown down along State Road 21 near Ochwilla Elementary School. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was unknown but estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
A funnel cloud was observed in Painters Hill.
Minor street flooding was reported along SW 57th Avenue.
A tree was blown down and blocked the road. A road closure was reported due to the fallen tree at State Road 222 near Interstate 75. The time of the event was based on radar. The cost of damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
A tree was blown down onto a power line near the intersection of SW County Road 245 and SW 44th Avenue. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
A tree was blown down across SW State Road 121 near the intersection of SWS 85th Trail. The large tree was across both lanes. The time of damage was based on radar. The cost of damage was unknown, but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Florida, 2023Warnings in Florida, October 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1140325, 1140326, 1140328, 1140329, 1140601, 1140943, 1140609, 1140603, 1140605, 1143472, 1140602, 1140743, 1140324, 1140332, 1140330, 1140331.