Heavy Rain in Florida, November 25 to 26, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
626 PM EST Sat Nov 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 149 PM EST Sat Nov 25 2023

Surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic region wedges
southward down the Appalachians into Florida maintaining cool,
stable northeasterly low-level flow. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure develops in the western Gulf and then shifts eastward
along the stalled boundary extending across the Gulf into south
FL. Cloud cover will increase from south to north as mid level
moisture sweeps northeastward across the Gulf and overspreads the
region. Increasing moist SSW 850 mb flow overrunning the stable
surface layer will lead to waves of light showers moving across
mainly NE FL overnight into Sunday morning. A north-south
temperature gradient is expected tonight due to increasing
cloudiness over NE FL. Overnight lows in the mid 40s north to
around 60 south.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 149 PM EST Sat Nov 25 2023

Showers will continue through Sunday with precipitation moving offshore
and becoming more dispersed by Monday morning as the front passes
over the forecast area. Areas expected to receive the most
rainfall will be along and the I-10 corridor and northward into
southeast Georgia, with training heavy showers moving from west to
east through most of Sunday resulting in rainfall amounts
measuring 1 to 1.5 inches with a potential for about 2 inches of
localized rainfall in some areas. Daily high temperatures for the
forecast period will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with
warmer temperatures occurring over northeast Florida. Overnight
low temperatures drop noticeably for the beginning following the
fropa with temps dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s over
southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 40s over northeast
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 149 PM EST Sat Nov 25 2023

Cold front will continue to press down over the Florida peninsula next
week bringing high pressure conditions and colder air over the
region resulting in drier weather, northwesterly winds, and
clearing skies into the latter part of the week. High pressure is
expected to move northward before next weekend with chances for
showers increasing by the end of the week and into Saturday. Cold
temperatures will continue through midweek with temps remaining at
below the seasonal average, with overnight lows over inland areas
reaching down into the mid to lower 30s. This looks to be the
first frost/freeze event of our area this season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM EST Sat Nov 25 2023

MVFR ceiling restrictions will begin to affect all the TAF sites
early Sunday morning. Vicinity showers are in place beginning in
the morning as well, later on in the early afternoon, confidence
increases for persistent rain. All TAF sites will see visibility
restrictions of MVFR to IFR conditions depending on the intensity
of rainfall, thunderstorms are unlikely. Guidance is leaning
towards IFR ceilings moving in the afternoon to early evening for
all of the sites as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM EST Sat Nov 25 2023

High pressure over the mid-Atlantic region extends southward down
the southeastern seaboard. Tonight, an area of low pressure
develops in the western Gulf. The low will move eastward across
the Gulf on Sunday and into the coastal waters Sunday night.
Rounds of showers are expected Sunday into Sunday night. High
pressure will build in from the west Monday and Tuesday, then
position over the local waters Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  47  62  51  63 /  10  80  70   0
SSI  55  68  55  68 /  10  70  70   0
JAX  55  68  55  67 /  20  80  70   0
SGJ  59  72  59  70 /  30  70  50   0
GNV  57  71  58  69 /  30  70  60   0
OCF  59  74  61  70 /  30  70  40   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&