Excessive Heat in Florida, August 23, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
959 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

No changes were made to today's forecast, as it remains on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

The 8/23 SPC 00Z 500mb analysis shows a 600dm height centered over
southern Iowa and northern Missouri. This very strong ridge of high
pressure will continue to dominate our weather pattern with hot
temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Widespread triple-digit
temperatures are expected this afternoon with heat indices above 108
degrees for the FL Big Bend, SE AL, and SW GA. The FL panhandle can
expect heat indices above 113 degrees. Heat advisories are in effect
this afternoon for areas west of Albany/Monticello line. The western
FL Panhandle is under an Excessive Heat Warning. Sensitive folks
should take frequent breaks if working outdoors, and drink plenty of
water to stay hydrated. There is a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms to develop this evening as a backdoor cold front
approaches from the northeast. This will bring our overnight low
temperatures down to the low 70s along the I-75 corridor, where PoPs
will be around 30 percent this evening. SE AL and the FL Big Bend
will have low temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Overnight, the
greatest rain chances will be over the marine zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 341 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

High pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard on Thursday will
push a drier, and slightly less hot (won't say cooler) airmass
briefly into the area. Dewpoints Thursday afternoon will mix into
the mid to upper 60s, with high temperatures ranging from the mid
90s in the east to the upper 90s in the west. This will give us a
one day break from the seemingly unending stretch of 105+
apparent temperatures.

Not to worry, however, as 850mb temperatures begin to warm back up
again by Friday, allowing for high temperatures to creep back
towards the century mark for much of the tri-state area. Rain
chances will be minimal for both Thursday and Friday given the
limited low-level moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

The heat appears to peak this weekend as the upper ridge maintains
its influence, and northerly 850mb flow develops. Temperatures at
850mb top out between 23-25C on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in
high temperatures in the 100-104F range for inland locations. Will
likely see Heat Advisory criteria across the most of the forecast
area both days, with some portion of the southern half likely
reaching Excessive Heat Warning levels once again.

Finally, by Monday, the eastward extension of the ridge should
finally begin to break down as a large scale trough digs into the
eastern CONUS. This will gradually usher temperatures back closer
to seasonal normals into early next week, and also help increase
rain chances as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms later this evening,
particularly for the VLD terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Light offshore winds this morning, will become onshore this
afternoon with the seabreeze. Slightly stronger northeasterly flow
is expected on Thursday, although winds will remain below
exercise caution levels. Light westerly to southwesterly winds
will return for the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Hot and dry conditions will persist today leading to fire danger
concerns. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to reach triple-
digits in most places with MinRH values in the 30s through the rest
of the week. High dispersions are forecast each day with values
around 100 units along and north of I-10 for today and mixing
heights approaching 7000 feet. Transport winds will be out of the
northeast at about 10-15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Drier than normal conditions will continue across the region
through the weekend before deeper moisture provides a return to
more typical summertime showers and storms next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   99  74  96  73 /  20  10   0   0
Panama City   98  79  96  77 /  20  20  10   0
Dothan        99  75  95  72 /  10  10   0   0
Albany        98  72  94  72 /  20  10   0   0
Valdosta      97  71  94  71 /  30  10   0   0
Cross City    97  73  96  72 /  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  93  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ015>018-026-027-
     115-118-127.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ007>014-108-112-114.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>126-142>145-
     155>158.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM....Camp
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Camp