Rip Current in Florida, April 6, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
353 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY...
...COASTAL NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)...

Another warm afternoon, with readings in the mid/upper 80s, has
materialized under the continued influence of a strong and
elongated upper ridge laying across the region. Southeasterly flow
beneath the ridge has pushed the east coast sea breeze inland
quickly early this afternoon while keeping the west coast sea
breeze pinned to the Big Bend area. As the two sea breezes merge
later this afternoon, a few showers and possibly a rumble of
thunder may develop in areas of NE FL along and west of I-75. Any
shower activity that develops will diminish quickly this evening
with the loss of heating.

The dominate ridge will begin to flatten tonight as it stunts the
southeastward progression of a cold front pushing into the
southeast. Resulting southwesterly flow aloft will spread
increasing cirrus overhead tonight. The high cloud cover combined
with a light boundary layer wind will help deter organized dense
fog development but given sufficient low level moisture area
patchy inland fog will be possible by daybreak Friday. Lows
tonight will be anomalously mild again, reading in the mid to
upper 60s.

The stalled front will remain stalled to the northwest through
Friday as prevailing steering flow shifts southerly to south-
southwesterly. Expect sea breeze development again at both coasts
with the Gulf sea breeze lifting north into southeast GA and across
NE FL through the day. A few showers will be possible across
northeast FL but a dry mid level airmass may keep coverage very
isolated. Better coverage and potential for a couple of storms will
exist across SE GA where the Gulf sea breeze may interact with
outflow pushing in from convection along the stalled boundary to the
north. Sea breeze will keep the coast cooler again Friday with highs
in the low 80s while inland temps soar into the mid/upper 80s once
again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday Night through Sunday)

The cold front slowly creeps further south Friday night and into
Saturday morning, then begins to make more progress southeastward
through Saturday Night and Sunday Morning. This will therefore
bring the highest POP chances to southeast GA Saturday afternoon
and evening, and towards northeast FL Saturday evening and
overnight. Most of the precip will likely be more stratiform as
instability will be very limited. However, included chance of
thunder for most areas Saturday evening as surface heating south
of the front will allow some CAPE of about 500-1000J/kg.

Temps will remain above average south of the front on Saturday
afternoon over northeast FL. High temps will be a bit more tricky
over southeast GA due to the timing of the front and precipitation
shield - however, generally upper 60s over the northern counties
where clouds and showers begin early, and low to mid 70s near the
FL/GA border.

As the front clears southern FL Sunday evening, low pressure will
form offshore south of Cape Hatteras on Sunday which will greatly
increase the offshore gradient with a building ridge over the
interior through Sunday Night. Therefore, breezy conditions will
build over the CWA and especially near the coasts in this
northeasterly flow on Sunday. This will also keep cool and dreary
conditions in place on Sunday, especially near I95 towards the
coast in which the best chance of rain showers and a few rumbles
of thunder will be found along with the strongest onshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through next Thursday)

The aforementioned low drifts south on Sunday Night and into
Monday, but northeast flow from strong ridging, below normal
temps, and unsettled weather will continue for Monday. Precip
chances will be highest near the coast and offshore with an upper
trough swinging offshore Monday Night.

Beyond Monday, the forecast gets a bit more tricky and uncertain.
However, the main story will be unsettled weather through Mid
week due to a deep upper trough plunging south all the way towards
the western Gulf Coast and closing off. Models vary on the
position and magnitude of this trough and low and therefore
surface low pressure/perception chances. However, and onshore
flow is expected to continue through at least Tuesday before winds
begin to veer more southerly and moderate our temperatures closer
to normal. The main impacts from the anomalous low will likely be
Thursday as it begins to slowly move north/northeastward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this period. A few showers
are expected to develop on the sea breeze this afternoon, with a
shower or two around KGNV possible late this afternoon and
evening. A period of patchy fog is possible inland at KVQQ and
KGNV, which may result in a brief period of restrictions around
sunrise Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

Ridge of high pressure and early afternoon sea breeze will be the
dominant features again Friday. A front will stall to the
northwest tonight and linger there until an area of low pressure
moves northeastward along it and drags it southeastward Saturday
night. Low pressure will strengthen as it lifts into the Atlantic
and northeast of the local waters. At the same time, building high
pressure will wedge in from the north. Strong northeast winds and
potential for gales will develop between those features resulting
a substantial rise in wave heights with 10 to 15 seas. Headlines
including a Gale Watch will likely be need in the next day or so.
Prolonged period of onshore winds are expected through most of
the next week. Wind speeds are expected to weaken to Caution
Levels by Tuesday as the initial area of low pressure lifts off to
the northeast. Unsettled weather and another period of strong
winds will be possible during the middle of next week as a new
area of low pressure develops to the west along the northern Gulf
coast.

Rip Currents: Sea breeze development will lead to Moderate Risk of
rip currents through Friday. A local nor'easter event is expected
late this weekend and into next week resulting dangerous high surf
conditions and frequent, life-threatening rip currents.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A local nor'easter event developing this weekend may lead to
elevated or minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast with
each high tide cycle beginning Sunday evening. Elevated tides are
likely to persist through Tuesday next week or possibly longer
amid linger onshore flow.

Minor to Moderate river flooding along the Altamaha River will
continue through the next week and may be prolonged further with
additional heavy rainfall over upstream basins this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...

A table of daily high temperature records and year of occurrence
for each of the climate sites is listed below.

DATE   TODAY 4/6
-----------------
JAX      90
       (1947)

CRG      87
       (2022)

GNV      90
       (2019)

SSI      87
       (1956)

AMG      90
       (1967)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  86  60  67 /  20  40  50  80
SSI  69  79  66  74 /   0  20  30  70
JAX  66  86  67  82 /   0  20  20  60
SGJ  67  82  66  83 /   0  10  20  40
GNV  66  89  65  85 /  10  40  30  40
OCF  65  89  64  87 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&