Tornadoes in Florida, April 21, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
736 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

High pressure in the Western Atlantic continues to weaken and push
further out to sea, opening up an opportunity for the Gulf Breeze to
return on Friday. This in combination with the Atlantic sea breeze
development will lead to chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The possible collision of these boundaries would be
the area to watch for a few heavier showers and storms with the
focal point for this being over the interior region. There is
abundant dry air present above the 750-800mb level, so any
convection is not expected to be widespread or long lived.
Conditions would be expected to clear up overnight but a couple of
isolated lingering showers cannot be ruled out.

For Saturday, a cold front will be approaching the Florida Peninsula
from the north as it detaches from a deep low over the Great Lakes
region. This will lead to increased moisture return flow, at least
in the low levels. Mid-level and upper level moisture will still be
lacking, so the potential for convective growth will be limited
again on Saturday and dependent on mesoscale processes once again.
As a result, PoPs are in the slight chance to chance categories for
both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will primarily be in the mid
to upper 80s across the region both days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Sunday/Monday: A cold front will cross through the area Saturday
night/Sunday morning, although any negative Theta-E advection behind
the (rapidly weakening) front will be minimal... and in fact highs
could be warmer than Saturday in some locations. Although Sunday
should be mostly dry, the near-surface flow may trend more NE over
the east coast which could result in some convergence-generated
showers and storms. Low-lvl easterly flow will prevail on Monday,
knocking temps down a few degrees on the east coast. Guidance is
beginning to key in on a convectively-enhanced southern stream
shortwave progressing towards the area Monday afternoon, and ascent
ahead of this feature combined with low-lvl convergence along the
Gulf breeze will likely result in at least scattered storm
development, largely focused over the west coast and western
Interior.

Tuesday-Thursday: The mid-week period looks generally unsettled as
the southern stream remains active near our area, and may even
temporarily merge with the northern stream over the northern Gulf
coast late in the period. We will begin to see some positive Theta-E
advection aloft on Tuesday and this isentropic ascent and moisture
advection may be sufficient to produce fairly widespread rainfall,
particularly if the Gulf breeze can establish itself. By Wednesday
the high to our north will be in retreat as sfc.cyclogenesis occurs
near the northern Gulf Coast. Precipitation chances Wed will be
largely dependent upon if moisture focuses/pools further north near
the boundary of if we retain enough moisture in the warm sector to
generate diurnal convection. Finally by Thursday, the system's cold
front will begin to approach the area, although how far south it
makes it before (likely) stalling is still uncertain.

High temperatures will generally be in the low-mid 80s on the east
coast in the easterly regime Mon/Tuesday before likely climbing into
the mid to upper 80s Wed-Thu as the flow becomes more southerly
ahead of the front. Highs on the west coast will mostly be in the
mid-upper 80s, but increased clouds and rain chances on Tuesday
could limit them.  MinTs should range from the mid-60s in the
Interior to the low 70s near the east coast through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

VFR conditions generally prevail for the next 24 hours. Easterly
winds will pick up in the morning and last into this evening
before becoming variable tonight. Winds turn out of the WSW at
APF as a gulf breeze develops this afternoon. Isolated shower
activity is possible for most of today at all sites, but remains
too sparse to mention at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Winds will weaken today, resulting in seas decreasing to around 1-
2ft through the weekend. There will be chances for isolated showers
at times but nothing that appears overly threatening.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Winds decrease today, lessening the risk for rip currents. Only the
Palm Beaches will maintain a high risk for the time being, but that
will be decreasing as well and likely will not be a high risk by the
end of the day. Calmer conditions settle in for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            83  71  87  70 /  20  10  20  10
West Kendall     86  67  89  67 /  20  10  20  10
Opa-Locka        85  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  10
Homestead        84  68  86  67 /  20  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  82  71  86  70 /  20  10  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  83  71  86  70 /  20  10  20  10
Pembroke Pines   85  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  10
West Palm Beach  83  69  87  68 /  20  10  20  20
Boca Raton       83  70  87  69 /  20  10  20  20
Naples           85  71  86  70 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
334 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
220745-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
334 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

...High Risk of Rip Currents for the Palm Beaches...
...Isolated Thunderstorms Mainly over the Interior...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic, Biscayne Bay, South
Florida, Gulf of Mexico and Lake Okeechobee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today mainly
in interior locations. The strongest thunderstorms could contain
heavy downpours and gusty winds.

Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for the Palm
Beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is in place for the beaches
of Broward and Miami Dade Counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An elevated rip current risk continues for this weekend especially
at the beaches of Palm Beach County and then likely increases further
next week.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible both days this weekend and
heading into next week. The strongest storms could contain heavy
downpours and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.