A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 20 miles northwest of Pagosa Springs in the San Juan National Forest.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 20 miles northwest of Pagosa Springs in the San Juan National Forest.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 10:36 PM MST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1136 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 800 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Critical fire weather conditions have abated with cooling temperatures and decreasing winds this evening. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 308 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 A tightened gradient associated with a passing upper level trough across the northern Rockies is resulting in breezy conditions across the area, with the gustier winds across northwest Colorado and east-central Utah where winds are gusting into the 30s this afternoon. A dry air mass remains in place as well due to high pressure to the south, resulting in critical fire weather conditions. Needless to say, the Red Flag Warning that was issued this morning is working out quite nicely for those zones. Other areas will continue to see localized critical fire weather conditions at times but duration and coverage isn't enough to warrant expansion of the Red Flag Warning. Winds should subside after sunset with good relative humidity recovery as monsoonal moisture begins to increase tonight as the high pressure shifts to the southeast allowing the southerly flow to pull moisture from Arizona into Utah. PWAT anomalies with this initial surge look to increase from 40 to 90 percent of normal this afternoon to 110 to 160 percent of normal by Friday morning. So, this mornings 12Z GJT sounding indicated 0.44 inches of PWAT, which will be above 0.75 inches by Friday morning and near an inch across east-central and southeast Utah. Our CWA looks to be on the fringe of the deeper moisture plume sitting back across the heart of Utah, with eastern Utah and far western Colorado seeing the better moisture initially on Friday until this plume shifts eastward over the weekend. Showers will start off high based tonight into Friday morning across eastern Utah with storms developing over the high terrain Friday afternoon. The moisture will edge further east into far western Colorado Friday afternoon and evening as a low pressure trough deepens over northern California as it dives southward from the Pacific Northwest. Expect western Colorado to get in on the storm action Friday with gusty outflow winds the primary threat until that deeper moisture works overhead this weekend. Eastern Utah stands the better chance to see wetting rain on Friday given proximity to the deeper monsoonal moisture axis. Some storms could linger through Friday night given an embedded shortwave moving through the southerly flow. Temperatures will cool as a result of this moisture increase about 5 to 10 degrees on Friday compared to today with more cooling on the way. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Over the course of the weekend, a closed PacNW low will shift inland and drive a broad ridge of high pressure over the Southern Plains. Initially, this will nudge the tap of monsoonal moisture eastward and provide a juicier environment for showers and thunderstorms over the Western Slope. Precipitable water in excess of 1.0 inch expands over eastern Utah and portions of western Colorado. Though widespread coverage appears to favor terrain west of the CWA, atmospheric moisture trickling in at low levels will support the initiation for heavy soakers across higher terrain by mid day. SBCAPE ranges from 500-800 J/kg across eastern Utah basins, as well as the Lower Yampa and Colorado River Basins, Paradox Valley, and Four Corners area by mid afternoon. In addition, storm motion is progged to be relatively slow with upper level winds ranging from 15 to 30 kts. Combine moisture, instability, slow-moving convection and you have an environmental recipe for flood and flash flood potential. Any zonal shift in the upstream low can change where the best pool of moisture settles, however, eastern Utah and western Colorado valleys mentioned above are more prone to flood hazards, attm. Storms should wane after sunset, since convection will be primarily terrain driven. However, on Sunday, the PacNW low drives across the northern Great Basin, with its axis reaching the fringe of our western border by Monday morning. In general, PoP coverage spreads across the entire CWA ahead of this system on Sunday. However, dry air entrenched along the southern periphery of the low could truncate storm activity across southeast Utah and into southwest Colorado Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately, the best pool of QG forcing aloft will bypass much of the region as the low swings from central Utah into Wyoming on Monday. Thus, these regions will snag the bulk of moisture tied to the system. Nonetheless, the CWA will feel a cooler air mass filter in and likely receive some shower activity while the trough's axis crosses Monday into Tuesday. All said and done for the weekend, the most impressive QPF forecast for our CWA is a bullseye over the Uintas with lesser values as you move east and south. Another ball of PV trails the first system on Monday, however, discrepancies between guidance lends to little confidence in how system number two will interact with the Western Slope. Overall, cooler than normal temperatures stick around for the first half of next week, followed by a dry and warming trend continuing into next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1135 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Clouds will increase over the next 24 hours as flow aloft begins to tap into moisture streaming northeast out of Mexico. Ceilings are expected to remain above ILS break points throughout the period. Currently light showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving through eastern Utah and starting to move into southwestern Colorado. Overnight, KCNY, KVEL, KDRO and KTEX will see the potential for showers and an occasional thunderstorm. From 16Z through about 00Z, the other TAF sites around the region will see some of this convective activity, but prevailing weather for all TAF sites is not expected to lower conditions below VFR levels. Expect generally light winds through the period, becoming gusty through the afternoon hours and diminishing by sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 Critical fire weather conditions will lessen substantially overnight and Friday as monsoonal moisture begins to move back into the region. This moisture surge looks to last through Monday, resulting in increasing coverage of showers and storms and cooler temperatures. Storms will start off high based with gusty winds the primary concern on Friday and transition to wetting rain producers by late in the weekend. Dry air moves back in beyond Monday with temperatures slowly warming back up by the end of the week. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && UPDATE...NL SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...ERW AVIATION...DB FIRE WEATHER...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 557 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 COZ005>012-014-017>023-UTZ022-023-028-029-011200- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 557 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Dry weather continues across eastern Utah and western Colorado today with winds across the north gusting 20 mph producing near critical fire weather conditions. Monsoonal moisture moves into the region overnight with isolated showers and thunderstorms starting in eastern Utah and spreading east into Western Colorado by Friday morning. Little to no rain is expected with gusty winds being the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Deep monsoon moisture moves in Friday and continuing into early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread Friday through Monday with increased potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Dry air looks to sneak back in Tuesday, decreasing the coverage of showers and storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed over the weekend for possible strong thunderstorms and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. Check this message each morning for updates. COZ001>004-013-UTZ024-025-027-011200- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-Flat Tops- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- 557 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, east central Utah and northeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Red Flag Warning. Dry weather will prevail across eastern Utah and western Colorado today. Winds will increase slightly across the north with gusts of 20 to 30 mph expected. Critical fire weather conditions are possible in the northern valleys where humidities will drop into the teens. Monsoonal moisture moves into the region overnight with isolated showers and thunderstorms starting in eastern Utah and spreading east into Western Colorado by Friday morning. Little to no rain is expected with gusty winds being the main threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Deep monsoon moisture moves in Friday and continuing into early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread Friday through Monday with increased potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Dry air looks to sneak back in Tuesday, decreasing the coverage of showers and storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed over the weekend for possible strong thunderstorms and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. Check this message each morning for updates.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Bear Creek Fire started in late July from a lightning strike 20 miles northwest of Pagosa Springs in the San Juan National Forest. The fire grew to 1,093 acres before it was contained in late September.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1128861.