A lightning strike ignited a wildfire near De Beque Canyon just west of Interstate 70.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire near De Beque Canyon just west of Interstate 70.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 19, 2:45 PM MST, 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 345 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 345 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Dry air continues to advect into eastern Utah and western Colorado from the southeast this afternoon. This dry air is gradually eroding the moisture we've had in place over the last several days. That being said, moisture continues to hang on north of the San Juans and especially north of I-70. Combined with 1000+ j/kg of SBCAPE, steep lapse rates, and 20 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear, we have isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms firing off the high terrain. These showers and storms are capable of producing brief periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. As previously mentioned, fairly fast flow should keep the risk of flash flooding low. Elsewhere, outside of showers and storms, it's a partly to mostly sunny Saturday with temperatures near seasonable norms. Most showers and storms will dissipate shortly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. It's possible a shower or two can linger later into the overnight hours; but otherwise, a dry, partly cloudy, and tranquil night is in store for the Western Slope. Dry air along with mid-level capping will encompass the rest of the CWA on Sunday. Other than a spotty shower or two in the highest terrain, the day is looking warm and dry. In fact, the dry air combined with at least partial sunshine will allow temperatures to rise several degrees above normal for the middle of August. Winds will also be on the breezy side as the pressure gradient between low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east tightens. That raises the concern for localized critical fire weather, particularly in the lower desert valleys where fuels are most critical. Conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant highlights, but fire weather will certainly be something to keep in mind for the latter half of the weekend. Similar to tonight, dry weather will persist on Sunday night under partly cloudy skies. Gusty breezes will likely persist through the night, especially in the higher elevations. Temperatures will bottom out near to a few degrees above normal. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 345 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 The work week will start off with the West Slope still situated under the western perimeter of a blast furnace high pressure center parked on the Great Plains. Meanwhile, Hilary's remnant moisture pool will wrap through the Great Basin and northeastward to the Canadian Border. A low pressure center pushing into the Pacific Northwest will chip away at the substantial ridge enough to put the CWA back into a monsoonal moisture path. Afternoon convection will likely remain confined to the southern mountains Monday afternoon, as the northern half of the CWA will still be too dry for any new moisture to reach the surface. A strengthening pressure gradient with the approaching PACNW low will likely push some gusty southerly winds and good warm air advection Monday. Critical fire weather conditions will pose a concern in some of the low desert valleys with their RH values likely reaching the threshold. Monday also shapes up to be the warmest day of the week before moisture begins to increase and cloud cover/rain threat returns the remainder of the week. A series of Gulf of Alaska waves come ashore over the Northwest and knock the ridge around a bit Tuesday and beyond. This will open up the gates for further monsoonal moisture transport to the region. Each day beyond Monday is expected to see upticks in afternoon convection. This will put the CWA back in the cross hairs for the usual flash flooding, gusty wind, lightning, and small hail problems that arise during the monsoon season. Temperatures should start the week above average and trend down through the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on the high terrain today. Storms will produce some gusty outflows, small hail, and heavy downpours. Low valleys will remain mostly VFR with a few mid and high clouds streaming through. Storms are expected to diminish around sunset, with quiet conditions expected overnight. Low valleys are expected to see gusty southerly winds picking up Sunday morning before the end of this TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MDM LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...LTB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 240 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-200845- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 240 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms may be capable of producing brief heavy rain and gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday The chances for afternoon showers and storms return on Tuesday and those chances increase gradually through late week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
223 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023
UTZ024-192100-
Eastern Uinta Basin UT-
223 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Uintah
County through 300 PM MDT...
At 223 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 25
miles southwest of Dinosaur, or 32 miles south of Vernal, moving
northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Uintah
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3990 10936 3999 10953 4024 10938 4010 10912
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 217DEG 14KT 4000 10937
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
15The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Bunkwater Fire started in mid August from a lightning strike near De Beque Canyon just west of Interstate 70, and grew to 138 acres before it was contained the next week.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1113592.