A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 8 miles east of Rangely.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire 8 miles east of Rangely.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 4:31 PM MST, 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 531 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 The synoptic pattern featured a closed low pressure system centered over the eastern Pacific off the coast of San Francisco with a high centered over the forecast area and a deepening trough over the eastern U.S. Moisture levels remained high with the 12Z sounding at KGJT coming in at just under 1" precipitable water (PW). Slow moving storms developed around 17Z this morning as surface warming and deep moisture drove MU CAPE above 500 J/kg. HREF indicated CAPE's as high as 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Positioning of the high has resulted in storms moving slowly to the south-southeast. Slow movement and ample moisture poses a risk for localized excessive rainfall and flash flooding during the remainder of the afternoon and early this evening. An area Flood Advisory was issued earlier this afternoon for a portion of the old 416 Fire burn scar area north of Durango and west of Hwy 550. Expect moist convection to dissipate by late evening with little chance for showers overnight, though it can't be entirely ruled out. On Thursday, flow over the region shifts to the south as the low off the California coast approaches shore and the trough over the east deepens causing high pressure to shift to the east. Models indicated a modest increase in moisture levels on Thursday which will be more apparent across the north where PW values were lower today. In addition, models suggested a weak disturbance in the southerly flow combined with jet divergence aloft will foster increased storm coverage and intensity Thursday afternoon and evening with areas south of the I-70 corridor favored. Dynamic lift and deeper moisture suggests better potential for nocturnal showers and embedded thunderstorms Thursday night. Temperatures will continue to run above normal tonight through Thursday night with cooler temperatures coming later in the week. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Friday kicks off with the synoptic pattern setting up in something close to a "typical" monsoonal pattern. A large area of high pressure will be centered over the Southern Plains, with a cutoff low pressure off the California coast. Sandwiched in between under southerly flow, eastern Utah and western Colorado will be getting in on some deep monsoonal moisture. Forecast PWAT values will be in the 341-190% percent of normal range, which equates to roughly 0.90-1.10 inches of PWAT. Provided that lingering convection and cloud cover from the day before doesn't put a damper on things, this juicy moisture will combine with the usual orographics and some upper level support in the form of a shortwave rotating around the high to bring widespread shower and thunderstorms activity to just about the whole area. Saturday is looking to be similar, although with maybe a downtick in coverage as some drier air from the east noses in. This is the point where the focus shifts south, to the west coast of Mexico, where currently-Tropical-Storm Hilary will be making its way northward. This tropical system is just jam-packed with deep moisture, and the southerly flow aloft will tap into it and drag it northward into the Desert Southwest and the Great Basin. The big question everyone is asking is, where exactly will this plume set up. And the answer, as of the current forecast package, is over eastern California, Nevada, Arizona, and western Utah. Current guidance has the Plains high retrograding, expanding dry air westward into the Central Rockies. This means that, if everything plays out as current guidance has it, eastern Utah and western Colorado will for the most part miss out on this moisture. The far western border of the Grand Junction CWA, think the Green and Colorado Rivers, might see some increased activity as they will be right on the fringes of the plume. Otherwise, PWATs will drop to near normal, or 0.60-0.80 inches. All that said, there is still time for this forecast to change, and all it would take is just a wobble... The Plains high maybe doesn't shift quite as far west, the tropical system known as Hilary maybe tracks up the Gulf of California instead of riding the Pacific Coast... Very subtle changes can make a big difference in this scenario, so certainly stay tuned. By the end of the long term period, what is left of Hilary will be approaching the Pacific Northwest and a broad southerly flow sets up over all of the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. A return the regularly scheduled monsoonal flow. Temperatures through the period will be near to a few degrees above normal. This really depends on what happens this weekend with Hilary, and whether the Western Slope stays dry or gets in on the moisture. Overnight lows will also remain relatively mild, at or a bit above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 525 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 TEX, MTJ, GUC, and DRO will be most favored to see frequent showers and storms, followed by ASE, EGE, and RIL. Areas north of the I-70 corridor, including HDN and VEL, will see much less activity. Winds in and around storms will be gusty and variable, with brief heavy rain lowering visiblity and ceilings on occasion. Shower activity will diminish after sunset, although could linger for some sites well into the night. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail and winds will be generally light and terrain-driven. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 A stream of subtropical moisture will continue to move northward across the region through the end of the week. Elevated moisture levels combined with slow storm movement pose a threat for localized excessive rainfall each afternoon/evening from today through Friday. Areas with unstable soils in steep terrain, or where soils are already saturated from rain earlier in the week are at greatest risk. Models have evolved since earlier in the week, with the consensus now indicating that the subtropical moisture plume will shift west of the area as high pressure expands westward this weekend. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ008-010-013. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...BGB AVIATION...TGJT HYDROLOGY...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 317 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-170930- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 317 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Moisture will remain in place today with light upper level winds, resulting in another round of slow moving afternoon and evening storm activity. The higher terrain over central and southern portions of the forecast area will be favored. Heavy rain will be the main concern and the strongest cells may be able to produce some localized flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Moisture will spread further northward as southerly flow pumps deeper moisture across Utah and Colorado through the rest of the work week with afternoon and evening convection being common. Coverage will increase Thursday and Friday with potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding. A drying trend is possible for the weekend with the moisture plume shifting to the west. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Deserado Fire started in mid August from a lightning strike 8 miles east of Rangely, and grew to 1131 acres before it was contained the next week.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1113590.