Damaging Wind in California, June 11, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
130 PM PDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.SYNOPSIS...An incoming weather system will bring widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity to the region through Monday with
decreasing coverage Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will cool
markedly as well through Monday before gradually returning to near
normal by the end of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have become fairly widespread
across portions of southern Nevada and southeast California as a
unseasonably cold area of low pressure moves inland over southern
California. Storms have generally been firing north of the I-15 and
drifting west and have been producing pockets of heavy rain. With
cold mid level temperatures ranging about -14C to -16C we have had
several reports of small hail associated with some of the stronger
storms. We will continue to see showers and storms develop through
this afternoon as the upper low slowly drifts east. With the
associated dynamics of the low, it is unlikely that we will
completely end the showers and thunderstorms with loss of daytime
heating and the latest HRRR shows convection developing after
midnight over southern Nevada. We can expect to see another day of
scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday as the low slowly shifts
east. The low will be a slow mover and is forecast to be centered
closer to the Nevada, Utah, and Arizona borders Monday morning. This
will allow for another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day with some storms producing localized heavy rain
and small hail. Outside of the storm chances the next few days,
temperatures will remain well below normal with the widespread
clouds and shower activity expected.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.

By Tuesday, the upper low which brought precip chances and
unseasonably mild temperatures should be shearing apart, with one
piece moving away to the east and the other retrograding to the
southwest. There is quite a bit of model spread in the position
and track of the low that retrogrades back over the eastern
Pacific, with some solutions leaving it well offshore and others
showing it drifting back inland during the period. Thus,
confidence is moderate at best. This forecast assumes that the low
will remain southwest of our area, which will allow precip
chances to retreat to the northern third or so of our CWA, and
also kick start a warming trend as heights rise in response to
high pressure over Mexico bulging northwest in between the two
lows. If this solution pans out, expect a dry late week and
weekend, with increasing chances for KLAS finally reaching 100F
for the first time of the year. On the other hand, if the low
drifts back inland, warming would be suppressed and chances for
showers and thunderstorms would increase.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Showers and thunderstorms will be
fairly widespread this afternoon generally west and north of the Las
Vegas Valley, however there are indications that the potential of
thunderstorms developing closer to the Valley after 21-22Z and will
need to be closely watched. Winds will generally remain southeast 10-
20kts, but could become variable and gusty at times with any
potential outflow boundaries. There is also some potential of seeing
convection during the overnight period along with varying gusty
winds, although confidence is low at this point. Similar conditions
expected Monday with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
around southern Nevada along with general southeast winds, but could
become erratic and gusty near thunderstorms.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact most
TAF sites this afternoon along with the potential of gusty outflow
winds up to 30kts. At this time, KDAG will have the lowest chance of
seeing additional thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Winds
will generally southeast to south with speeds generally 10-20kts.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will occur again Monday
with the potential of impacts at each TAF site, especially gusty
winds.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Morgan
AVIATION...Gorelow

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