A potent storm system moving across Arizona dragged a cold front from west to east across south-central AZ. Along and ahead of the cold front, a line of showers and thunderstorms affected most of south-central Arizona resulting in frequent lightning, pea-sized hail, moderate to locally heavy rainfall as well as strong wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PSR wrote it up.
A potent storm system moving across Arizona dragged a cold front from west to east across south-central AZ. Along and ahead of the cold front, a line of showers and thunderstorms affected most of south-central Arizona resulting in frequent lightning, pea-sized hail, moderate to locally heavy rainfall as well as strong wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 5:23 PM MST, 3 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
523 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023
.UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather disturbance is bringing very windy conditions ahead of
a cold front today, which will sweep through the region this
evening. The winds are generating pockets of blowing dust. This
system is also bringing precipitation to the central Arizona lower
deserts and light snow accumulations for the higher terrain east
of Phoenix. Well below normal temperatures are anticipated
Wednesday and Thursday morning followed by a gradual warming
trend. More unsettled weather will be possible early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
High wind, dust, rain, thunderstorms, snow, and colder temperatures
are all anticipated through the next 24 hours as a strong trough
digs down through the region. A glance at the map on weather.gov
will quickly prove this trough is expected be impactful. Several
watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued, with nearly
all of Arizona and Southern California covered by at least one
product.
High winds are expected to be the greatest impact through tonight.
Winds have already picked up across the region early this
afternoon, with some locations having already reached advisory-
level wind gusts (40+ mph), including Northwest Pinal County and
parts of Southeast California. A very strong jet streak (150 kts
sampled around 350mb from the 12Z Medford, OR sounding) is helping
drive a deep trough rapidly down the western CONUS. Water vapor
satellite and objective analysis still have the trough near
southern Nevada. A surface cold front recently went through Las
Vegas, NV and resulted in wind gusts up to 60 mph. As the trough
axis and cold front gets closer, the gradient winds will only
increase across the area. So, surface wind speeds are still
expected to increase through the afternoon and likely peak late
this afternoon through this evening. Widespread 30-40 mph wind
gusts are likely, with ~50% chance for 40+ mph peak gusts. The
will be a chance for 50-60+ mph wind gusts as well, with HREF
probabilities favoring high terrain spots east of Phoenix and in
Southwest Imperial County CA. Wind Advisories and High Wind
Warnings are in effect and run through the late evening.
With the strong winds, blowing dust will be a threat through this
afternoon and evening. A considerable dust channel has been
observed on the satellite dust channel and webcams in northern
Imperial County this afternoon. A Dust Advisory has been issued to
cover this. A Blowing Dust Advisory is also in place across the
dust prone Pinal County through this evening. Although dust has
not been observed as of 2PM MST, dust could still become an issue
as gusts increase.
Light low-topped showers developed earlier this morning in the
foothills north of Phoenix and continue to develop further south,
now spread across most of the Phoenix area. Aircraft soundings
still show a dry stable layer between 700-600mb which is limiting
the intensity of the showers. Observed rain rates are mostly
0.10"/hr or less. However, once the colder air arrives later this
afternoon and evening, that helps destabilize the environment
more, shower shower intensity will likely increase. NBM is
maintaining a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms in South-Central AZ
this evening. CAPE overall will be limited, with HREF spread
mostly between 0-100 J/kg and a few pockets above 100 J/kg. The
best forcing will likely come with the strong cold front as it
sweeps through the region. The cold front is progged to move
through the CWA mainly between 5 PM - 12 AM MST today (7-10 MST
through Phoenix). As previously mentioned, gradient winds will be
strongest along and just ahead of the trough. With low-level winds
increasing up to 50-60 mph there will be a chance for
shower/storm driven wind gusts up to these magnitudes. A few hi-
res models even suggest some linear convection segments. Small
hail and graupel will possible with any convectively driven
shower this evening, which could briefly accumulate at lower
elevations.
The aircraft soundings out of Phoenix and the melting layer
algorithm from KIWA radar suggest snow levels are currently around
5-6 kft. Dendrite production is not great right now over South-
Central AZ due to the aforementioned dry layer existing in the
dendritic growth zone. So, any snowfall early this afternoon is
likely limited in rate and accumulation efficiency. This will
change as well this evening as the colder air arrives. The most
significant accumulations are expected to remain above 5000 feet,
though light accumulations are possible as low as 2500 feet,
north and east of Phoenix. For the Valley, snow showers will be
limited to the foothills, generally above 2500-3000 feet in
elevation. Rain amounts will vary but on average, one to two
tenths of an inch is likely. All things considered, hazardous
weather conditions are expected across much of the area today and
tonight, and motorists are urged to exercise caution.
In the wake of this system, clear skies are anticipated
Wednesday with much drier conditions as dew point temperatures
crash down to around 10F or lower by mid-day Wednesday. However,
latest model guidance continues to indicate a trailing vort max,
which will act to elongate the trough into Arizona. Consequently,
breezy conditions will continue down the Lower Colorado River
Valley and the cold will linger with well below normal
temperatures prevailing. High temperatures will struggle to even
reach the mid 50s around Phoenix, and 60 degrees across SW Arizona
and SE California Wednesday. The bigger concern though will be
temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday. Latest NBM indicates
the potential for a widespread late-season freeze event. Many
lower desert locations and valleys across Arizona may observe the
coldest readings so far this winter and Hard Freeze Warnings are
possible, particularly across Pinal County where lows may reach
the upper 20s.
Steady height rises will translate into a warming trend and a
return to near normal temperatures through Saturday. Thereafter,
forecast uncertainty increases, mainly in response to a meandering
closed low in the eastern Pacific. Low pressure systems like this
one are notoriously difficult for the models to resolve and
forecast, and this is reflected in the NBM PoPs, which show an
extended period of 20 percent 12-hour PoPs stretching from
Saturday night through next Tuesday. Model clusters also point to
high uncertainty with regard to precipitation potential, though
temperatures are generally expected to remain at or below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 0020Z.
South-Central AZ including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
The main aviation weather concern through the early to mid-evening
hours will be the potential for a significant uptick in winds. A
cold front is expected to move through the terminals through
04-05z, delivering a convective line of showers with very strong
wind gusts near to potentially exceeding 40 kts. After the
convective line moves through, winds will significantly decrease
with speeds 10-15 kts along with some higher gusts through
Wednesday. CIGS through midnight will fluctuate between 4-6 kft
before lifting overnight with mostly clear skies expected by
Wednesday morning. Wind direction through early evening will
generally be from the south-southwest to southwest and then shift
from the west to west-northwest after the cold front passes
through and remain from this general direction through the rest of
the period.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strong winds along with areas of blowing dust significantly
reducing visibilities will be the main aviation through this
evening. Strong wind gusts between 35-45 kts can be expected
through this evening along with MVFR visibilities, particularly
across BLH, due to blowing dust. A line of showers currently
located near Parker with continue to move southeast through the
next couple hours, delivering VCSH across KBLH. Winds are
expected to significantly diminish during the overnight hours and
through Wednesday, although gusts over 20 kts will continue at
times. Gusts approaching near 30 kts will be possible at KBLH
Wednesday afternoon. Wind directions through this evening will be
from the west to southwest and then switch from the west and
eventually from the northwest during the overnight hours and
through the day on Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Very windy conditions are expected today and tonight ahead of a
cold front that will sweep through central this evening. Wind
gusts will generally reach 35-45 mph, but there will spots in the
higher terrain potentially reaching 60-80 mph. This system will
bring another chance of precipitation for the central Arizona
lower deserts this evening and light snow accumulations for the
higher terrain east of Phoenix later tonight. Much cooler and
drier conditions are expected Wednesday. Winds will also subside
Wednesday, though general breeziness will persist. A warming trend
is then expected through the weekend. A low pressure system will
meander in the eastern Pacific early this weekend, however there
is some uncertainty with regard to if and when impacts and
precipitation will next affect the Desert Southwest.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ530>551-553-
554-559.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ551-
553>555-559.
High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Wednesday for AZZ552-558-561.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM MST Wednesday for AZZ555>557-560-562-
563.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Wednesday for AZZ557-558-
563.
CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ560-561-564-
565-568>570.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ562.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ563-566-567.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ563-566-
567.
&&
DISCUSSION...Benedict
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...HirschPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
846 PM MST TUE FEB 14 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM HAIL 3 N BUCKEYE 33.43N 112.60W
02/14/2023 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ PUBLIC
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
848 PM MST TUE FEB 14 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 PM HAIL 2 SSW FOUNTAIN HILLS 33.58N 111.76W
02/14/2023 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA-SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT THE FRYS
SUPERMARKET LOCATED ALONG SHEA BLVD IN
FOUNTAIN HILLS.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
849 PM MST TUE FEB 14 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0810 PM HAIL 3 N GOODYEAR 33.48N 112.41W
02/14/2023 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST TUE FEB 14 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM HAIL 3 N BUCKEYE 33.43N 112.60W
02/14/2023 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 3 N
BUCKEYE.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
851 PM MST TUE FEB 14 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0815 PM HAIL 2 N CITRUS PARK 33.57N 112.44W
02/14/2023 E0.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 2 N
CITRUS PARK.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
853 PM MST TUE FEB 14 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 PM HAIL 3 ESE NORTH SCOTTSDALE 33.60N 111.85W
02/14/2023 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
&&The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 26 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:59 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large dead tree fell through a brick wall in a apartment complex in the area of Rural and Baseline Roads in Tempe as line of strong showers and storms associated with a cold front moved through. Timing estimated from radar. No injuries were reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1082285.