Warming temperatures and areas of mixed rain and snow caused snowmelt flooding of streets across Anchorage. 30 combined with the warming temperatures overran storm drains which were covered in ice and snow and unable to contain the runoff.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
Warming temperatures and areas of mixed rain and snow caused snowmelt flooding of streets across Anchorage. Rainfall of 0.30 combined with the warming temperatures overran storm drains which were covered in ice and snow and unable to contain the runoff.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 26, 5:33 AM AKST, 9 hours 1 minute earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 533 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2023 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Tuesday night)... The low that had been sitting out near the eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula the last few days has opened up into a trough and is lifting north and east toward Southcentral. There are other out of phase short-waves out ahead of this lifting northward across the Gulf and into Southcentral. The larger trough is taking on a negative tilt and pulling a surface low back toward the Kenai Peninsula this morning. Widespread precipitation is falling across the region, mainly in the form of rain. The one exception is the Copper River Basin where precipitation is primarily in the form of snow. Meanwhile, a barrier jet is ramping up along the north Gulf coast and into Prince William Sound this morning as an occluded front extending east from the low center tracks toward the north Gulf coast. The low and front will push onshore across Prince William Sound this morning and weaken. Marginally cooler and unstable air will wrap around the storm system. The combination of cooling due to melting snow aloft combined with the little bit of cold air advection should be just enough to cause a transition from rain to snow for the western Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Timing of the transition will vary based on precipitation intensity, but the general window will be from mid morning through early afternoon. Precipitation will linger for much of the day until the aforementioned upper trough coming in from the west reaches Southcentral and pushes precipitation inland. The trough will weaken as it crosses Southcentral tonight, so precipitation intensity will diminish with time. Right on the heals of the departing trough, a new long-wave trough and surface occluded front will move in from the Bering Sea tonight through Monday, bringing another round of precipitation. While the overall airmass will start out cooler than the one in place this morning, there will still be precipitation-type challenges. Strong southeast flow ahead of the front will warm the low levels overnight tonight from the Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the southern Mat-Su. In addition to the typical mountain-top gusty winds, also expect a strong Turnagain Arm jet to bring some wind to south to west Anchorage overnight through early Monday morning. The front will track rapidly inland Monday morning, with winds shifting around to the south to southwest and colder air moving in. At the same time a potent short-wave aloft will approach. The end result will be a very quick transition from warm southeasterly flow (with downsloping in the lee of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains) to moderate snowfall. There is come uncertainty in the exact start of snow for any given location, but it will occur first across the western Kenai in the pre-dawn hours, then likely reach Anchorage and the southern Mat-Su during the morning commute. Would expect low visibilities due to the snow intensity alone, but gusty southerly winds coming up Cook Inlet could make things much worse. The upper level short-wave will progress fairly quickly across Southcentral, so expect generally looks like a 3 hour window for the heavier snowfall. Snow will head inland Monday afternoon, lingering longest along the south to west sides of mountain ranges due to the low level south to southwest flow. Cold air advection will cross all of Southcentral during the day Monday, bringing snow levels down to sea level for nearly the entire region. The threat of snow showers will persist through Monday night thanks to a series of weaker short-waves aloft and an unstable airmass. It will be hard to narrow down which areas have the best chance of seeing showers. Forecast confidence takes a precipitous drop Tuesday through Tuesday night. Model guidance is all keying on a strong compact low tracking northward across Southwest Alaska. However, the spread in track is large. This pattern has potential to bring a lot of wind into Southcentral if the low takes a more eastward track across Southwest Alaska. After this, yet another storm moves up from the Pacific into the Gulf. The one thing that can be said with confidence as we continue through the week is that temperatures will be cooler (though perhaps still above normal) and any precipitation will fall mainly in the form of snow - especially inland. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Sunday through Wednesday)... Key Messages: - Some model disagreement remains resolving where a low will form along an occluding front tracking across the Bering. - There is a low chance (20% to 30%) that ice could pile up along the shore across the Kuskokwim Delta (specifically Kipnuk to Kongiganak) toward Sunday night. - There is moderate chance (30% to 45%) that coastal flooding could occur across the Kuskokwim Delta shoreline Sunday night to Monday. - Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend. Discussion: The front of a Kamchatka low will continue to sweep across the Bering with southerly, gale-force winds reaching the western coast of Alaska by Sunday afternoon. Confidence is high that this front will bring gale-force wind, with localized areas of embedded storm-force wind. Strong cold air advection will bring gusty westerly winds behind the front this weekend and into next week. One area where model variation is greatest, is identifying where a low will develop along the occluding front. Any developing low would lead to increased winds in their immediate vicinity, adding to the complexity of forecasting where to expect the strongest winds. This also affects which areas could potentially see ice pile up along the shore or experience coastal flooding. Heavy to moderate precipitation will fall across the Aleutian Chain which weakens to light precipitation for the Southwest, with the exception of the Bristol Bay region receiving moderate precipitation. Temperatures across the entire region will trend downward through this weekend as colder air builds in behind the front. Most locations will cool enough for rain to transition into snow by late Sunday night. -ER && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... A well developed North Central Bering low moves towards the Western Alaska coast, extending the longwave trough across the Southern Mainland Alaska. This trough will dissipate Thursday over Western Interior Alaska. The trough brings widespread cooler temperatures across the region through the forecast period, with areas of heavier precipitation. Higher surf may occur over the Yukon- Kuskokwim coasts. Further west, a second strong low near Southern Kamchatka brings a major shortwave trough across the Aleutians and Bering towards Southwest Alaska, with weaker shortwave troughs to follow along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Large areas of gale force winds are expected to spread along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through the end of the period. Forecast confidence for tracks and strengths becomes mixed through Saturday with the transient lows. A strong Eastern North Pacific low moves into the Gulf of Alaska through Saturday. A gale force barrier jet occurs along the North Gulf Coast, diminishing late Thursday. Gusty winds up to gale force will spread mostly over the Eastern Gulf, diminishing through Saturday. Widespread areas of mixed precipitation are expected along the North Gulf Coast, and spread inland through the period. Kutz && .AVIATION... PANC...Chances for snow into this afternoon. Visibilities are expected to drop to MVFR with cloud ceilings dropping to IFR through this morning. Conditions improve late this afternoon as snow chances drop and cloud ceilings will rise above 3000'. Light northerly winds this morning flipping to southerly early this afternoon. &&
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Significant ponding of several inches of water on Hickel Parkway due to snowmelt flooding. Ponding was severe enough where vehicles were swerving to avoid the flooded areas.
Street flooding at the intersection of Baxter Road at Northern Lights Blvd. Water was over 1 ft. deep with chunks of ice in the water. Cars were impaired by flooding and snow covered roadways forcing cars to drive into the flooded area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1142160, 1142158.