Flood in Alaska, May 9 to 11, 2023

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
355 AM AKDT Tue May 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A warming trend to near or just above normal temperatures
is expected across Interior and Northern Alaska. Highs in the low
to mid 60s by Wednesday and continued warm into the weekend.
Typical late spring conditions are underway with fog over the N
Slope. Weak to moderate southerly chinook winds with gusts to near
60 mph in the eastern Alaska range through this morning.

DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 520 dam arctic trough just offshore of the NW Arctic
coast. Ridging will build over the Interior as upper low over
the Aleutians slides into the Gulf of ALaska. Warming conditions
will persist over the Interior and northern Interior through the
week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Gusty south gap winds through the AK Range will continue into the
45 mph range, gusting to near 60 mph this morning with gradual
weakening through tonight. Wind advisories are out until noon
today for the eastern Alaska range and Delta Junction south. A
warming trend to near or just above normal temperatures is
expected across Interior and Northern Alaska. Highs in the low to
mid 60s by Wednesday and continued warm into the weekend. Not much
in the way of showery activity until Thursday and Friday
afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior...Northeast winds will
continue through Wednesday. Temps will remain sightly below
seasonal norms over the W Coast with the blustery northerly winds,
but will gradually warm over the Interior. Highs in the
upper 30s to low 40s near the coast and highs in the low
50s inland.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Low stratus and periods of dense fog will plague the Arctic coast
through the week. Weak disturbances aloft will support
isolated/scattered rain and snow showers over the Brooks Range
through Wed.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER...
Snowpack starting to clear low elevations of Tanana Valley, but
heavy snowpack remains in most other areas.

South winds will continue to gust to 35 to 45 mph before
decreasing slowly Tue night and Wed although they will remain
breezy through Thu. Expect dry and windy conditions down by the
AK Range today and tomorrow.

HYDROLOGY...
Most rivers and lakes remain ice covered, with areas of overflow
and open leads. The Tanana River has broken up in many areas
upstream of Salcha, and the lower portion of the Nenana River is
open.

With a much above normal snowpack over most of the Interior, and
a warming trend to near or just above normal temperatures in the
second half of this week, there will be a big increase of snowmelt
and the push of water into rivers south of the Brooks Range in
the second half of this week. People who live near areas prone to
snowmelt flooding should prepare for the possibility of snowmelt
flooding later this week. The chance of breakup and/or snow melt
flooding are above normal this spring over Eastern Alaska and are
about a week later than normal. The latest breakup information is
available at www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupMap.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ223-226.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
&&