What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 2:59 AM AKST, 6 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 22, 2:59 AM AKST, 6 hours 58 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
359 AM AKDT Mon May 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers are ongoing this morning across the
Y-K Delta as well as southern central and eastern Interior. Shower
activity will increase from Denali Park east to Eagle today as a
strong shortwave lifts northeast across the Yukon. Isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible along and east of a
line from Chicken to Circle. Shower activity continues Tuesday
with best chances of precip occurring over the Y-K Delta.
Southerly gap winds with gusts to 30 mph continue through the
Alaska Range passes today and will increase to 30 to 40 mph
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures trend downward by mid-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Aloft, at 500 mb, ridging extending from Alberta west across the
Interior to the Chukotsk Peninsula will weaken, as a shortwave near
Haines Junction this morning lifts northeast across the Yukon to
be between Northway and Whitehorse this afternoon, continuing
northeast into the Northwest Territories on Tuesday. A 536 dam
(decameter) low centered near the Pribilofs will slowly wobble in
place through Tuesday before sliding southeast to be near Cold
Bay Wednesday morning and near southern Kodiak Island by Wednesday
afternoon. A shortwave stretching southwest to Eastern Russia
from a low in the high Arctic will slide east northeast across
Chukotsk Peninsula and Chukchi Sea Tuesday and to the northwest
Arctic Coast by Tuesday afternoon, strengthening Wednesday.
Models...
The 22/00Z model solutions initialized well aloft, as well as at
the surface. Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern
through Tuesday, but differences begin to arise aloft by
Wednesday morning with how models handle weak upper level
troughing through the Bering Strait. Opted to go for a general
model blend for most of the forecast package. Leaned towards the
NAM for winds in the Alaska Range as it best handled the southerly
gap flow in the passes best.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
As has been the trend of the past few nights, areas of fog, some
locally dense, have redeveloped along the Arctic Coast this
morning. Expect the fog to thin by late this morning and redevelop
again tonight, thanks to high pressure in place. Outside of the
fog, fairly quiet conditions are expected today. From Utqiagvik
west this morning, southwest to west winds increase to 10 to 20
mph, spreading eastward before diminishing the afternoon. Precip
chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moving out
of eastern Russia pushes across the region. The front will bring
a mix of rain and snow to the western North Slope, while further
east along the coast and in the eastern Brooks Range, snow is
expected. Accumulating snow is possible in Atigun Pass on
Wednesday, with 2 to 4 inches of snow not out of the question.
Behind the front as high pressure builds north of the coast,
northerly winds increase to 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures trend
downward, with highs Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
West Coast and Western Interior...
An upper level low near the Pribilofs is supporting ongoing shower
activity this morning from the Seward Peninsula south that will
continue through the day. Isolated to scattered showers are also
possible this afternoon and evening along the thermal trough from
Ruby to near Buckland. A surface low moving north to the Y-K Delta
Tuesday will support increased shower activity from the Bering
Strait south Tuesday and Wednesday, with highest rain chances over
the Y-K Delta. A cold front moving southeast over northwestern
Arctic Coast Tuesday into Wednesday will support shower chances
across the West Coast and western Interior Wednesday. After a warm
day Sunday, when high temperatures pushed well into the 60s to
near 70 across the Western Interior, cooler temperatures are
expected today, with high temperatures topping out in the mid 50s
to lower 60s across much of the Western Interior and in the mid
30s to near 50 along the coast. Temperatures will be on a slow
downward trend over the next several days.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered showers are ongoing this morning across the southern
Interior as a weak piece of energy aloft moves overhead. A strong
shortwave located near Haines Junction this morning will bring
scattered to numerous showers from Denali Park east to Eagle as it
moves northeast. Isolated thunderstorms are not out of the
question this afternoon and evening along and east of a line from
Chicken to Circle. Isolated to scattered showers possible along
the thermal trough today from Eagle to Indian Mountain and again
Tuesday from Northway to Bettles. Isolated thunderstorms possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening from Northway to Circle.
Temperatures will largely be cooler today than they were
yesterday, especially across the southeastern Interior where cloud
cover and precip will limit heating today. On Tuesday, above
normal temperatures will return for a brief encore, before
temperatures trend downwards a few degrees the next several days
as high pressure aloft weakens. Southerly gap flow through Alaska
Range passes continues this morning and is expected to continue
through mid-week, increasing from gusts near 30 mph today to 30 to
40 mph Tuesday and Wednesday. Along the thermal trough, expect
southwest winds to increase to 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon
and evening hours, elsewhere, winds are expected to generally be
less than 15 mph.
Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
While there is a large spread in model solutions in the long term,
models do agree that an upper level low will move east southeast
across the Bering Sea through the weekend and to the Gulf of
Alaska by early next week. This would bring a regime of scattered
showers across the south of the Brooks Range and cooler
temperatures.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures cooler today for most areas, though the Yukon Flats
will still see temperatures in the lower 70s today. Temperatures
briefly increase on Tuesday before trending downward through at
least mid-week. Minimum RH values largely above 25 percent except
for the Yukon Flats today, a bit drier tomorrow, but RH values
trend upwards Wednesday. South winds will gust to 30 mph through
AK Range passes today, with gusts 30 to 40 mph through AK Range
passes Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise winds generally less than
15 mph, except for gusts to 10 to 15 mph near the thermal trough.
Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible today along
and east of a line from Chicken to Circle. Isolated thunderstorms
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening from Northway to Circle.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning continues for the Kobuk River at Kobuk. As of
Saturday late afternoon, flooding of low-lying roads is occurring
in the Village of Kobuk. Due to high snowmelt in NW Alaska and ice
jams in place on the Kobuk River near Kobuk, water will likely
rise over the next day or two and and flooding will get worse.
Moderate flooding is expected and it is possible that homes in low
lying areas could flood.
A Flood Warning continues for the Yukon River at Stevens Village.
As of Sunday evening, flooding is occurring in Stevens Village
due to snowmelt in the Yukon and Porcupine basins. There is a foot
of water over the airport access road. River levels are expected
to continue a slow rise and crest over the next day or two.
A Flood Watch continues for the Porcupine River from the
Canadian border to Fort Yukon due to snowmelt flooding. Minor
flooding near the Ft Yukon Airport could worsen as heavy snowmelt
from the Brooks Range moves down the Porcupine River.
A second Flood Watch continues for the Kobuk River downriver of
Kobuk to Ambler, including Shungnak. An ice jam below Kobuk may
cause flooding in villages below Kobuk when it releases, as ice
downriver of Shungnak appears mostly intact. The river came up an
estimated 15 to 20 feet in Shungnak Sunday, with minor flooding in
the lowest area of town. River levels are expected to rise as
breakup progresses.
Flood advisories remain along the Yukon River from Tanana to
Nulato for minor flooding. An ice jam near the mouth of the
Nowitna River broke loose early Sunday. The high water and ice
from this jam has moved downstream is now moving through Galena
and will move into Koyukuk this afternoon and evening, and to
Nulato tonight. Galena now has minor flooding with some roads
covered by water, but no homes are expected to flood. Flooding of
fish camps and cabins in low lying areas near the Yukon is
possible downstream of Ruby. Water levels are falling slowly from
Tanana to the Nowitna River due to the jam release.
Runoff into rivers south of the Brooks Range is causing water
levels to rise on many rivers. Local ice jams continue to be a
threat in the Western Interior and may result in elevated water
levels. The increased runoff may also cause smaller rivers and
streams to rise to bankfull levels or overbank in low lying areas.
People along rivers and streams should prepare for the possibility
of high water levels into early next week due to ice breakup and
snowmelt runoff. River access points and gravel bars will likely
be covered with water along with increased debris in rivers.
The latest breakup information is available at
www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupMap.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ217.
Flood Watch for AKZ220.
&&In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 22, 8:38 AM AKST, 1 hour 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
938 AM AKDT Mon May 22 2023
AKZ218-219-232345-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
and Gobblers Knob
938 AM AKDT Mon May 22 2023
...High Water On Most Rivers This Week...
Heavy snowmelt in the Brooks Range is causing water levels to
rise on many rivers draining the south side of the Brooks Range.
Larger rivers such as the the Colleen, the Sheenjek, the
Chandalar and the Koyukuk, and their tributaries, all have high
water. There is a risk of minor flooding this week along all of
these rivers due to the high water from snowmelt. There is also a
risk that ice jams could form and cause localized ice jam
flooding on these rivers this week.
People along rivers should prepare for the possibility of high
water levels this week due to ice breakup and snowmelt runoff.
River access points and gravel bars will likely be covered with
water along with increased debris in rivers.
The latest breakup information is available at
www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupMap.
AKZ221>226-232345-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs,
Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park, Cantwell,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome,
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
938 AM AKDT Mon May 22 2023
...High Water Levels On Most Rivers This Week...
Warm temperatures across the Southeast Interior are causing
significant high elevation snowmelt. Ice is now gone from most
rivers across the Southeast Interior, but many rivers and streams
will run high from the snowmelt and cover sloughs and gravel bars
with water.
People along Southeast Interior rivers and streams should prepare
for continued high water levels this week. River access points
and gravel bars will likely be covered with water along with
increased debris in rivers.
The latest breakup information is available at
www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupMap.
JB